Overall Impressions: The Diamondbacks' farm system was in better shape when the offseason began, with Top 20 prospect Trevor Bauer still intact and the promise of a major haul coming in return for Justin Upton. Now Bauer is gone, replaced by Fantasy non-factor Gregorius, and the package Arizona received for Upton is quite underwhelming. Had they nabbed Taijuan Walker and Nick Franklin from the Mariners, this could've been a Top 5 system. Instead, they're more like a Top 12.
Strengths: Pitching depth, with four or five probably back-end starters. A nice cast of fourth outfielders and flawed but promising infielders.
Weaknesses: Upside from position players -- most profile as regulars, not stars. Lack of promising arms in the low minors, aside from Archie Bradley.
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| Chris Owings has flaws, but he's the highest-upside shortstop in the system from a Fantasy perspective. Photo by mwlguide. |
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS TOP 10 LIST
1) Tyler Skaggs, LHSP
Categories: K, W, ERA, WHIP
Skaggs isn’t a future ace, but he’s among the best LHSP prospects in the game thanks to his upside and floor. He’s a little homer prone, but can be a No. 3/4 Fantasy SP For a long time and he’s ready now. Skaggs is relevant for those in redraft leagues too, although don't bank on him for outstanding immediate results. ETA: 2013
2) Archie Bradley, RHSP
Categories: K, W, ERA, WHIP
Bradley is one of the few pitchers in the minors I’m comfortable labeling as a potential ace and has a perfect frame for a starter. Don’t worry about the command issues yet, although he’ll need to refine them to reach his lofty ceiling. His progression may seem slow thanks to what the likes of rival Dylan Bundy is doing, but he's coming along fine. ETA: 2015
3) Adam Eaton, OF
Categories: SB, OBP, R, AVG
Eaton flew up prospect boards thanks to a big 2012 and should fight his way towards meaningful playing time in 2013. He has 30 SB speed, should hit for a decent average and will be very useful in OBP leagues, in addition to the runs he’ll score. He's a very safe bet to be productive, although immediate playing time will be a struggle to secure. ETA: 2013
4) Matt Davidson, 3B
Categories: HR, RBI, R
Davidson is a prototypical masher with plenty of swing-and-miss in his game, but enough power to make it worth it. He should be able to stay at 3B for the first half of his career and has the ability to hit 5th or 6th in a lineup. His future with Arizona is somewhat murky after the Martin Prado acquisition/extension. ETA: 2013
5) Stryker Trahan, C
Categories: HR, AVG, RBI, R
I’m sold on his potential as a Top 5 Fantasy catcher, although he’s quite a ways off from reaching that goal. The Diamondbacks might move him off the position to speed up the bat, but I hope they don’t, as we’re looking at Brian McCann-like upside. After the elite catching prospects are off the board, Trahan leads the second tier. ETA: 2016
6) Chris Owings, SS
Categories: HR, RBI, SB, R
He’s still the best SS prospect in the system, and if he makes more contact he could be a good Fantasy MI. That’s a big if, though, as Owings’ 22.3 K% last year was ugly. He’s far from a sure bet to reach his ceiling, but the offensive upside remains. If Didi Gregorius ends up cementing himself, Owings makes an attractive trade chip. ETA: 2013
7) Andrew Chafin, LHSP
Categories: K, W, SV, HLD
Chafin’s fastball/slider combo and status as a lefty all but guarantee his a major league roll, but it remains to be seen if that will come as a starter. With improved command, he’s a high-WHIP No. 3 SP. Without, he’s an 8th inning arm, and there's enough of a chance of that happening for me to list him down here. ETA: 2014
8) David Holmberg, LHSP
Categories: ERA, WHIP, W, K
I’m actually a big Holmberg fan in real life, but when your ceiling is a No. 4 SP, your Fantasy value is pretty limited. It’s also going to be tough for Holmberg to carve out a role in this pitching-rich org, so he’s a likely trade candidate. Fantasy owners should hope he goes to a a homer-killing home park, as that could be a weakness. ETA: 2013
9) Didi Gregorius, SS
Categories: AVG, R
This might seem low, but Gregorius is a much better MLB prospect than a Fantasy one. His upside is as a usable MI with an empty average and around eight homers and steals each. Those players don’t win you leagues, so he’s just here on probability. He'll get a shot to stick before Owings or Nick Ahmed do, though. ETA: 2013
10) A.J. Pollock, OF
Categories: SB, OBP, AVG, R
Pollock’s ceiling is very low, but he’s essentially at his floor as a 4th OF with decent speed right now. Pollock should work out to what Ryan Sweeney was supposed to be, getting on base and swiping bags against RHP. He’s devoid of power, so stay away if you're looking for a short-term fix in that area. ETA: 2013
THE NEXT FIVE
11) Zeke Spruill, RHSP: Durable fourth starter will help with WHIP but not with Ks
12) Chase Anderson, RHSP: Great changeup and nearly ready, but low ceiling.
13) Alfredo Marte, OF: Intriguing power from a probable No. 4 OF who's not far off.
14) Michael Perez, C: Love the power potential from a catcher, but his approach is a mess.
15) Nick Ahmed, INF: Could surface as a second-division starter with an ok hit tool.
Conclusion: This a very deep system with a ton of potential major league regulars and role players, but little in the way of star potential. Arizona is staring at logjams in the outfield, towards the back of the rotation and potentially even at shortstop, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a trade involving two or three players from the middle and back of this list.
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