Overview: The Giants have done a phenomenal job developing homegrown arms such as Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner recently, and remember that top Mets prospect Zack Wheeler was largely developed by San Francisco as well. That bodes well for the organization, as the majority of its best minor leaguers right now are starting pitchers. The picture becomes more grim on the offensive side of the ball, where San Francisco's system is among the weakest in the game.
Strengths: Pitching. Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Chris Stratton and Mike Kickham project as the next wave of impact Giants pitching talent, although only Crick profiles as someone who can pitch near the front of a rotation. Chris Heston, Erik Surkamp and Martin Agosta have lower ceilings but could serve as back-end rotation pieces soon.
Weaknesses: Hitting. Gary Brown is the team's best offensive prospect by a longshot, yet he's not a lock to make my Top 100 list. Players such as Andrew Susac, Joe Panik and Francisco Peguero profile more as a backups than starters, while toolsier players like Mac Williamson and Gustavo Cabrera are still far away.
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| Gary Brown may not profile as the elite-level CF he once did, but his speed can still be useful to Fantasy owners. Photo by SD Dirk. |
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS TOP 10 LIST
1) Kyle Crick, RHSP
Categories: K, W, ERA, WHIP
The Giants have yet another impact SP success story on their hands with Crick, who has No. 2 upside if he can better harness his command. The fastball/slider combo is beautiful, and he has a good build and delivery. He's a stud in the making and is easily the best prospect the Giants have had since Zack Wheeler left town. ETA: 2015
2) Gary Brown, OF
Categories: SB, AVG, R
Brown’s 2012 can be viewed as a disappointment, but I think it really just exposed him for what he is: a good future player, but certainly not a great one. Some reports of a “fixed” swing are encouraging and he still has plus speed, even if he doesn’t use it well. Don’t give up on him yet, just temper your expectations to a No. 4/5 Fantasy OF useful only for his speed. ETA: 2013
3) Clayton Blackburn, RHSP
Categories: WHIP, ERA, W, K
The biggest knock on Blackburn is that he’s physically maxed out, but when you’re already good, that doesn’t matter as much. He’ll be challenged as he moves up the ladder and his stuff seems less advanced, but he’s a fast-moving No. 3 starter. He's not the typical high-upside arm that seems to pop out of the Giants farm system every other year, but he's somewhat of a safer bet, too. ETA: 2014
4) Chris Stratton, RHSP
Categories: ERA, W, K, WHIP
Like Blackburn, Stratton is a potential mid-rotation arm who shouldn’t need a ton of time in the minors. What he lacks in ridiculous upside he makes up for in floor, and Stratton is widely lauded for his pitching smarts as well. He might dominate High-A thanks to his pitchability, but a truer test of his talents will come at the Double-A level. ETA: 2014
5) Mike Kickham, LHSP
Categories: W, K, ERA, WHIP
Kickham isn’t the type of player you build a rotation around, but he figures to be a durable innings eater as a No. 4 starter behind the guys listed ahead of him. Lefties who throw mid-90s are rare, too, so the K totals could be better than is readily apparent. In some ways, he reminds of me Felix Doubront, but will have more Fantasy value as he pitches in the NL West. ETA: 2013
6) Heath Hembree, RHRP
Categories: K, HLD, SV, ERA
Hembree has closed throughout much of his minor league career, but while his fastball/slider combo is good, I think he’s more of a setup guy than closer at the top level. There’s still plenty of value in that, though, and Hembree is ready now. If you're playing in a deep league with holds, you could do worse than to snag him. ETA: 2013
7) Andrew Susac, C
Categories: HR, RBI
Susac’s defense needs some work, but it’s not so bad he profiles to move off the position, and that makes him of interest to Fantasy owners. Susac’s only really impressive tool is his plus power, but 20 HR catchers don’t grow on trees. He's more of a good backup than a first division starter, but in this organization that makes the list. ETA: 2014
8) Joe Panik, SS/2B
Categories: AVG, R
Panik is a divisive prospect, with some seeing an average everyday SS and others seeing a utility player best suited for backup 2B duties. I see him somewhere in-between, but when your Fantasy ceiling is that of a Marco Scutaro-type, it’s not a thrilling package. His stat line could take a hit in 2013 as he moves on from the hitter-friendly confines of the California League. ETA: 2014
9) Chris Heston, RHSP
Categories: ERA, WHIP, W, K
Heston isn’t sexy and won’t win you a Fantasy championship, but he could be a safe Low-K and Low-WHIP option in NL-only leagues in favorable match-ups. He lacks even average MLB velocity but gets good reports for fastball movement, and has a well-rounded arsenal to boot. It might sound boring, but if you know when to start guys like Heston, they’re useful. ETA: 2013
10) Mac Williamson, OF
Categories: HR, SB, RBI, R, AVG
There’s not a ton of info on him out there but in a shallow system like this, intriguing tools win out. Williamson is big and projects for plus power, but I want to see the plus speed before I’m comfortable projecting it. He's still a guy to keep an eye on, although he may be less refined than your typical post-college slugger. ETA: 2015
The Next Five
11) Eric Surkamp, LHSP: Low ceiling and recovering from Tommy John, but high floor.
12) Josh Osich, LHP: As you can likely tell from the ranking, I think he's a RP all the way.
13) Francisco Peguero, OF: Defense-first No. 4 OF sees offense limited by strikeouts.
14) Martin Agostsa, RHSP: Polished college starter has low ceiling but could move fast.
15) Gustavo Cabrera, OF: Typical young toolsy outfielder who needs a better approach.
Conclusion: The 2013 iteration of the Giants farm system largely follows what we've seen in the recent past: one or two elite prospects, impressive pitching depth and little in the way of offensive upside. They lack a Buster Posey or even a Brandon Belt-type offensive player to boost them in the rankings, though, and despite enviable starting pitching they're an easy Bottom 10 system. Don't lose sight of the role players listed here, though.
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