Overview: A combination of high draft picks, international signings and savvy trades have left the Cubs with one of the best farm systems in the game. The majority of their Fantasy-relevant talent is at least another season removed from the majors, though, and many of their highest-upside players look more ready to surface in 2015 or 2016.
Strengths: Depth. The Cubs have 16 or 17 players you could reasonably make a case for as Top 10 names, and many would find their way onto a Top 200 prospect ranking. They have a nice mix of role players (Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters, Junio Lake) who are ready now and high-upside players (Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, several young pitchers) who will contribute later. They're also deep at shortstop, outfield and right-handed pitching.
Weakness: Proximity and probability. The Cubs are in a unique position in that many of their prospects have a wide gap between their ceilings and floors. Baez, Soler, Jackson, and nearly every pitcher on this list fit the bill, as do exciting youngsters such as Arismendy Alcantara and Jemeir Candelario. It's among the biggest "boom-or--bust" systems in the game.
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| Josh Vitters isn't going to be a star, but he figures to be of passing Fantasy relevance at least for 2013. Photo by mwlguide. |
CHICAGO CUBS TOP 10 LIST
1) Javier Baez, SSCategories: HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, R
When you read scouting reports on Baez, terms such as “Gary Sheffield-like bat speed” and “70 power” pop up. Pair that with a shot to stick at shortstop, at least early in his career, and you get a potential Fantasy monster: albeit a high-risk one. He's essentially where Xander Bogaerts was a year ago, but with less refinement yet even more raw talent. ETA: 2015
2) Jorge Soler, OF
Categories: HR, SB, RBI, R, OBP, AVG
Some shy away from Soler because he’s hasn’t proven himself in the U.S. yet, but he’s universally lauded for his five-tool potential and the possibility of truly disruptive power. You win Fantasy leagues with stars, and Soler has a chance to be one. How his pitch recognition and approach play in the mid-to-upper minors will ultimately determine where he ranks on this list next year. ETA: 2014
3) Albert Almora, OF
Categories: AVG, SB, R, HR, RBI, OBP
I’d rank Almora ahead of Soler on a standard MLB list because his defense and his instincts are special, but he’s still an excellent Fantasy prospect in his own right. Expect a .300 average and 20 steals with regularity, plus surprising pop in his prime. I believe his floor and probability are both higher than is common in a high school outfielder, and he could move a little faster too. ETA: 2015
4) Brett Jackson, OF
Categories: HR, SB, OBP, R, RBI
Jackson is a deeply flawed player whose contact issues (66.3% in AAA last year) are likely to prevent him from reaching his otherwise lofty ceiling. He’s ready now, though, and his power/speed/OBP combo is attractive in the Fantasy world. He'll stick in the majors for a long time thanks to his tools and glove, even if he falls short of the stardom some predicted a few years back. ETA: 2013
5) Arodys Vizcaino, RHRP
Categories: K, SV, ERA, WHIP, HLD
You hate to see your forecast come true at the expense of a player’s health, but I’ve been labeling Vizcaino as a reliever for three seasons. Hopefully, the Cubs now realize his role too, as the smallish fireballer has Top 15 Fantasy closer upside. If they experiment further with him in the rotation it won't shock me, but it would just serve to prolong his inevitable move to the pen. ETA: 2013
6) Dan Vogelbach, 1B
Categories: HR, AVG, RBI, OBP
Vogelbach is what he is: a two-trick pony whose two tricks happen to matter in Fantasy. He has potential plus-plus power and a plus-bat, although he may be a long-term DH. The ceiling for him is Billy Butler with more pop, but he needs time and he's a bit overrated in Fantasy circles. He's also not a threat to supplant Anthony Rizzo, so a trade to an AL team could be in his future. ETA: 2015
7) Josh Vitters, 3B
Categories: AVG, HR, RBI
Aggressive rank, sure, but as much as Vitters has disappointed, his Triple-A stats were impressive and I still think he can hit. He’s not a star, but a .280 average w/15 homers isn’t useless at 3B and he’s the presumed starter, although I suppose Ian Stewart's corpse could give him a run for his money. 2013 is his make or break year in terms of avoiding a 4-A label. ETA: 2013
8) Matt Szczur, OF
Categories: SB, R, AVG, OBP
I’m not a believer in Szczur as a long-term starter, but his speed is undeniable so he gets the Fantasy nod here. He has legit 30-plus SB speed, even as a part-time player, and he knows how to take the occasional walk. I'm Still not in love with him, but I'll concede that he's a better Fantasy prospect than an MLB one. ETA: 2014
9) Junior Lake, 3B/SS
Categories: SB, HR, R
To me, Lake is basically the infield version of Jackson: he has great natural tools, but poor contact skills are holding him back. The power/speed/arm combo is too intriguing for the Cubs to give up on, so Lake will get several chances to stick. He strikes me as a guy who may eventually settle into a Bill Hall-like career. ETA: 2013
10) Arismendy Alcantara, SS
Categories: SB, AVG, R
Alcantara is a relatively unknown prospect, but his speed, hit tool and position make him a must-watch for deep dynasty leaguers. Some reports indicate he may have to move off of SS eventually, but switch-hitting MIs with a strong hit tool stick around. He has a decent chance of ranking third or fourth on this list next year. ETA: 2015
The Next Five
11) Dillon Maples, RHSP: Big upside, low probability as a No. 2 SP, but history of arm trouble.
12) Duane Underwood, RHSP: Same upside as Maplres, but with a higher chance of ending in pen.
13) Jeimer Candelario, 3B/1B: Not a lock to stay at 3B but big natural power potential/upside.
14) Christian Villanueva, 3B: His best tool is his defense, but the bat shouldn't be completely empty.
15) Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHSP: Relative unknown could be SP or RP depending on control.
Conclusion: Cubs fans need to be patient, as there's a ton of potential in this farm system, but not a lot of it terribly close to the majors. It's not at all difficult to envision a 2015 lineup comprised mostly of homegrown players, though, and the Cubs are building considerable depth throughout their minors. These guys are going to populate Top 100 lists for the next several seasons to come.
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