Overview: The Padres' system was ravaged by injury in 2012, with Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin, Joe Wieland, Corey Spangenberg, Joe Ross, James Darnell and others all missing significant portions of the season. The good news is that none of the injuries suffered by those players figures to linger into 2013, and the Padres still boast one of the deepest systems of the game. Given their home ballpark, pitchers obviously get the bump over hitters from a Fantasy perspective.
Strengths: Pitching and depth. Seven of the Top 10 and 10 of the Top 15 players on this list are pitchers, and many of them project to be damn good ones. Petco can make an average pitcher, like Erlin, into a good one, a good one, like Kelly, into a great one and a great one, like Fried, into a monster. Fantasy owners should be excited.
Weaknesses: Impact hitters. Rymer Liriano is a potential stud and I'm higher on him than some, but other than that no one in this system profiles as a great Fantasy bat. Gyorko should be decent but loses some appeal at 3B, Spangenberg and Jace Peterson are somewhat one-dimensional players and Austin Hedges is not nearly the same prospect for Fantasy as he is in real life.
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| Rymer Liriano isn't the safest bet to reach his lofty ceiling, but he's a potential six-category Fantasy threat, even in Petco Park. Photo by SD Dirk. |
SAN DIEGO PADRES TOP 10 LIST
1) Rymer Liriano, OF
Categories: HR, SB, RBI, AVG, R, OBP
Liriano is an absolute tool shed with All-Star upside but a modest chance of reaching it. You can dream on a .280 average with 25 homers, 20 steals and plus RF defense, but his power hasn’t shown up yet and he has some on-filed maturity issues. He possesses the highest upside of any position player in the Padres system, though, and he could be a Fantasy force even in Petco. Despite the gaudy MiLB numbers, don't expect more than 20 SB per season. ETA: 2014
2) Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B
Categories: AVG, HR, R, RBI
It won’t be pretty, but as long as Gyorko retains his 2B eligibility his Fantasy potential is very solid. He’s stocky and not a superb athlete, buy Gyorko can really hit and he’s ready now. He's a decent sleeper MI for those in deep leagues this year, although odds are he'll eventually be forced back to third base, where he's currently blocked by Chase Headley. ETA: 2013
3) Casey Kelly, RHSP
Categories: ERA, WHIP, K, W
Kelly isn’t the ace some projected he’d be during his time with the Red Sox, but that doesn’t mean he’s bad. Kelly is MLB ready now and, aided by Petco, can be a serviceable backend Fantasy SP. The profile isn't as sexy as it was a few years back, but a consistent Shaun Marcum type is still valuable. Kelly also still has the upside to profile as a No. 2 for a few years in his prime. ETA: 2013
4) Max Fried, LHSP
Categories: K, ERA, W, K
Fried has the highest upside of any pitcher in the organization, but he’s at least three seasons away. His plus fastball and curve have the makings of a dynamic pairing, and his change shows promise too. The ultimate ceiling is that of a Jon Lester type, and if you put that sort of a skill set in Petco you end up with a Top 12 Fantasy arm. ETA: 2016
5) Robbie Erlin, LHSP
Categories: WHIP, ERA, W, K
Erlin has a similar ultimate profile to Kelly but for different reasons – his command is elite and he’s left-handed. He’ll never challenge for a strikeout crown and he’s not a top end option, but I see a Mark Buehrle-like presence. I've read enough concerns about the fastball to rank him behind Fried, despite Erlin's relative proximity to the majors. I'd be willing to use him in favorable match-ups this year, though. ETA: 2013
6) Matt Wisler, RHSP
Categories: ERA, WHIP, K, W
He’s underrated, but while Wisler has a higher ceiling than Erlin, he’s just a bit farther away. He posted a 17.9 K% compared to a 6.2 BB% in A-ball last year, and if he comes close to repeating those numbers in A+ his stock will soar. In a more shallow system, Wisler would be a much more well known name, and as it stands now he's a good bet to make my Top 150. ETA: 2015
7) Corey Spangenberg, 2B
Categories: SB, AVG, R, OBP
Spangenberg is a better Fantasy prospect than an MLB one, as even hitting for an empty .280 average with 30 SB makes him an intriguing Fantasy name. Reports indicate that he has more power than he believes, and he needs to drive the ball more to really thrive. Considering he was billed as a fast-mover out of college, the ETA is a bit of a disappointment. ETA: 2014
8) Zach Eflin, RHSP
Categories: K, W, ERA, WHIP
It’s a testament to the Padres depth that Eflin ranks No. 8, because I’m absolutely in love with his upside and considered ranking him as high as No. 6. He’s got a big fastball, big frame and big upside, and when you put that skill set in Petco he could be a Fantasy monster. Add him now and thank me later. Yes, this is what a prospect crush looks like. ETA: 2016
9) Joe Ross, RHSP
Categories: K, W, ERA, WHIP
Ross gets some rave reviews for his raw stuff and athleticism, but he was eminently hittable in A-ball and he missed time with shoulder problems, which is scary. I’ll trust the scouting reports over the numbers, but I want to see more in 2013. And to be fair there are many prospect evaluators I respect a ton who are much higher on Ross, so I could be underrating him here. ETA: 2015
10) Walter Weickel, RHSP
Categories: K, W, ERA, WHIP
The SP depth in this organization is ridiculous. Weickel is another big right-hander from the 2012 draft who has a plus fastball and a potentially special curve. You can rank the last three guys in any order and get no argument, and all have No. 2 SP upside. Weickel is very thin and lanky right now and if he adds strength and velocity as he grows, look out. ETA: 2016
The Next Five
11) Jace Pederson, SS: A raw talent with plus speed and a chance to stay at SS. Low probability but nice upside.
12) Brad Boxberger, RHSP: Ready for duty as an MLB reliever now with a set-up role in his future.
13) Austin Hedges, C: Minors' best defensive prospect profiles as having an average bat, which hurts him here.
14) Keyvius Sampson, RHSP: Numbers don't match quality of stuff thanks to poor command, but he's got a shot.
15) Joe Wieland: Lowest ceiling of anyone on this list, but Wieland should be MLB ready soon and can start.
Conclusion: This is obviously a very deep system, with six or seven Top 100 candidates and eight or nine Top 150 potentials as well. While the hitting talent is comparatively shallow, given Petco's offense-killing tendencies, perhaps it's smarter for San Diego to focus on high-caliber pitching anyway. The park factor makes this system a bit difficult to judge from a Fantasy POV, but I'm still comfortable projecting it as a Top 5-7 organization.
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