2012 Theoretical Trade Series: Oakland Nabs Headley, Padres Keep Rebuilding

Earlier this week, we kicked off the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series with a look at what a potential swap of Jacoby Ellsbury and Jordan Zimmermann would mean for the Red Sox and Nationals.

My second piece in this series was going to cover a swap of Mike Olt and Zack Greinke, but then the Angels stepped in and ruined my plans, landing the Brewers’ ace for a package built around Jean Segura instead.

Instead, PTP examines one of the most popular offensive players on the trading block – Chase Headley – and how he’d fit with the AL’s most surprising playoff contender, the Oakland Athletics.

Few people thought the A’s would be buyers when trade season rolled around, but in Headley they can add a player who helps both now and for the next several seasons.

Chase Headley would make the A's better both now and for the next several seasons. Photo by SD Dirk.

SAN DIEGO PADRES trade Chase Headley (3B) to OAKLAND ATHLETICS for Brad Peacock (SP, AAA), Grant Green (UT, AAA), Fautino De Los Santos (RP, AAA) and Michael Taylor (OF, AAA)

Underlying Logic

The Padres are 15 games under .500 in the middle stages of a rebuilding phase, and while Headley is their best player, he’s not a franchise cornerstone or true building block. The earliest one can reasonably see San Diego competing is in 2014, which is the last deal of Headley’s contract. If they can get a big return for him now in a seller’s market, they’d be wise to so.

The Athletics find themselves in a position no one predicted when the season began – they currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Tigers for the AL’s second Wild Card spot. Oakland was also viewed as a rebuilding club, but thanks to good pitching and some unforeseen sources of power, they’re in a position to buy headed into July 31.

2012 Theoretical Trade Series: Red Sox, Nationals Exchange Ellsbury, Zimmermann

As a Twitter and MLBTradeRumors junky, the week-or-so leading up to July 31st is among my favorite times of the year. Baseball fans and bloggers scour the internet in search of the latest rumor, and spend hours postulating on the feasibility of trades which will likely never come to fruition.

What's the analytical benefit to such exercices? Well, admittedly not much. Does that mean it can't still be fun? Not at all.

With that idea in mind, I bring you the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series, in which I'll publish a few articles over the coming days detailing a few blockbuster trades I think should (but know probably won't) happen. Some will be based on rumors I read. Others, such as the one below, will be based purely on my own speculation. 

Feel free to comment to agree, disagree, compliment, insult, etc. The debate is often as fun as the speculation itself. 

Without further ado, I bring you the first article in this series, in which I trade Jacoby Ellsbury and spare parts for Jordan Zimmermann and a few arms. Enjoy!

Adding Ellsbury to the Nationals would make Washington NL World Series favorites. Photo by keithallison.

BOSTON RED SOX trade Jacoby Ellsbury (CF), Vincente Padilla (RP), Kelly Shoppach (C), Pedro Cirriaco (INF) to the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for Jordan Zimmermann (SP), Robbie Ray (LHP, A+), Ryan Perry (RHP, AAA)

Underlying Logic

The Red Sox are a sub-.500 baseball team and play their next eight games against the Rangers, Yankees and Tigers. They could very well be four or five games under the even point and even farther behind in the Wild Card hunt by this time next week.

The Nationals, meanwhile, hold a 4.5 game lead over the Braves, and are proving to be a competitive team a season before most took them too seriously. Their pitching is their strength, and they’ve been searching for true center fielder for a while now.

2012 Farm System Rankings

As seen on NESN.com, here are my 2012 Farm System Rankings. I'll be coming out with a Top 100 list for NESN soon, so stay tuned.


If you'd like to see the series as it ran on NESN, here are the links.


Systems 30-21  I  20-11  I  10-1


As always, feedback is appreciated.


Although baseball fans typically spend the offseason analyzing their favorite team's major-league rosters, assessing a team's farm system can offer a better perspective of how well set-up that organization is to succeed not just in 2012, but for the foreseeable future as well.

With several major offseason deals in the books, and with the 2011 draft class now firmly entrenched in each team's system, now is as good a time as any to review how all 30 farm systems stack up heading into the 2012 season.

There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Minor League Ball's John Sickles and more, plus analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here is a series aiming to rank, in reverse order, all 30 farm systems.

It's not a perfect science, but in general, organizations with high-upside prospects rank higher than those without, and prospects who are closer to the majors are worth more than those who are further away. That being said, an organization's depth –- including in the low minors -– does factor in to where they rank.

To begin, the bottom 10 systems in baseball are listed below. For the most part, these systems either lack prominent prospects all together, or contain one or two high-end prospects with little talent to follow.

As always, players must meet MLB rookie eligibility requirements (under 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level) to qualify as part of an organization's farm system.

1) San Diego Padres

Top Prospect: Rymer Liriano, outfielder

The Padres boast the best combination of upside and probability of any farm system in baseball, and have talent through all levels of their minor leagues. Robbie Erlin, Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland should all be permanent members of the big league rotation by mid-2013, and Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Liriano, Corey Spangenberg and Jedd Gyorko give them a solid crop of offensive prospects as well. Trading Mat Latos to the Reds will hurt them in 2012, but it put them in a much better position going forward.

2) Toronto Blue Jays

Top Prospect: Travis d’Arnaud, catcher

GM Alex Anthopoulos has done a tremendous job building this farm system through trades, drafting and the international market, and as a result the Jays now have the top system in the American League. Jake Marisnik and Anthony Gose form one of the most dynamic outfield prospect pairings in baseball, and d’Arnaud is an elite catching prospect. With Drew Hutchison, Justin Nicolino, Noah Snydergaard, Daniel Norris, Deck McGuire and Aaron Sanchez, the Jays have a bevy of No. 2/3 starter types throughout the system as well. It’s a very impressive group, especially given the trade of Nestor Molina and recent graduations of Henderson Alvarez and Brett Lawrie.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

Top Prospect: Trevor Bauer, starting pitcher

Even after trading Jarrod Parker for Trevor Cahill, the D-Backs boast one of the most impressive collections of pitchers in the minors. Bauer and Tyler Skaggs should be MLB-ready this season, and Archie Bradley, Pat Corbin and David Holmberg aren’t too far behind. Matt Davidson and Bobby Borchering could boast 30-homer power, and Anthony Meo and Andrew Chafin could be phenomenal relievers. Add in up-the-middle prospects Chris Owings and A.J. Pollock, and Arizona has set itself up for success for years to come.

4) Tampa Bay Rays

Top Prospect: Matt Moore, starting pitcher

It doesn’t matter how many prospects the Rays graduate to the majors each year – they just keep replenishing an incredibly deep system. Flame-throwing lefty Moore is one of the three or four best prospects in baseball, and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitcher Chris Archer will make plenty of Top 50 lists as well. A haul of Taylor Guerreri, Mikie Mathook and Grayson Garvin were parts of a good 2011 draft, and Brandon Guyer and Alex Torres, Alex Colome and Tim Beckham could play roles on the 2012 MLB club.

5) Texas Rangers

Top Prospect: Jurickson Profar, shortstop

The Rangers have a nice mix of talent in the low-to-mid minors. Profar is arguably the best shortstop prospect in the game, and has five-tool talent. Martin Perez’s prospect star has faded in recent months, but he’s still just 20 and reached Triple-A last season. He could join righty Neil Ramirez and lefty Robbie Ross in the Rangers’ rotation in short order, with Cody Buckel further away (and Yu Darvish a possibility too). Outfielder Leonys Martin will be an excellent defender with some pop in center, and Mike Olt is a promising corner infield bat in the low minors. Infielders Rougned Odor and Christian Villanueva are exciting too.