2012 Top 20 Red Sox Prospects

Below is my 2012 Top 20 Red Sox list, which appeared on NESN.com. As always, comments are appreciated!

Since the dawn of the Theo Epstein era in 2002, the Red Sox have enjoyed nearly a decade of success in the drafting and development of minor league players. Perennially considered one of the better farm systems in baseball, the Red Sox system currently contains mostly high-impact prospects in the lower levels of the minors, but there are still plenty of players ready to contribute to the 2012 squad as well.

There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Fangraphs' Mike Newman and Marc Hulet and more, plus analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here are the Red Sox' top prospects headed into the 2012 season.

Players must meet MLB rookie eligibility requirements (under 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level) to qualify for this list. Teams listed below represent the highest level each player reached in 2011.

1. Will Middlebrooks, third base, Pawtucket

One of the most athletic third base prospects in the minors, Middlebrooks enjoyed a breakout season in 2011. The 23-year-old posted a .302 average and .345 on-base percentage with 18 homers and 25 doubles in 397 plate appearances in Double-A.

Widely regarded as an above-average defender, Middlebrooks' best tools are his arm and his plus power. One area of concern for Middlebrooks is his plate discipline, as he struck out in more than 23 percent of his at-bats last season while walking less than 6 percent of the time. Middlebrooks may never develop into the type of high-OBP player Sox fans have become accustomed to, but has a ceiling as an above-average everyday third baseman in the mold of a young Mike Lowell -- albeit with inferior contact rates. 

2. Anthony Ranaudo, starting pitcher, Salem

Ranaudo had a solid if unspectacular year in High-A, tossing 81 innings and posting a 4.33 ERA in 16 starts. Ranaudo's 3.95 fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggests he was better than his ERA demonstrates, but it would have been nice to see him pitch with more efficiency. The next major steps in Ranaudo's development will be further refining his changeup and building up his durability -– surpassing 140 innings pitched in 2012 would be a great sign.

Ranaudo projects more as a No. 2 starter than an ace in the majors, but he still comes with significant upside and could compete for a spot in the Sox rotation in spring training 2013. 

3. Xander Bogaerts, shortstop, Greenville

This is an aggressive ranking for Bogaerts, but if you believe that the best way to win at the MLB level is through acquiring stars, there's no more exciting prospect in the Red Sox system. Bogaerts' numbers don't look entirely impressive without context, as he put up a .260-16-45 line with a .324 OBP in Greenville. But considering Bogaerts more than held his own as an 18-year-old in Single-A in his second professional season, those numbers are rather impressive.

Bogaerts may eventually outgrow shortstop and slide to third base, but his bat would profile there as well. He's at least three more seasons away from seeing the majors, but his upside is as an all-star who contributes both in the middle of the field and in the heart of a batting order.

4. Jose Iglesias, shortstop, Pawtucket

Just about every Red Sox fans knows the book on Iglesias -– he's ready to be one of the two or three best defensive shortstops in baseball right now, but he's proven to be a liability at the plate to this point in his young career.

Iglesias possesses the bat speed and hand-eye coordination necessary to hit for a solid average, but he struggles with pitch recognition and has very little power. After hitting just .235 with a .285 OBP in Triple-A last year, Iglesias will need to prove himself for a few months before seeing major league time. He's still the Sox’ shortstop of the near future, but 2011 represented a step backward in his development.

5. Ryan Lavarnway, catcher/designated hitter, Boston

Lavarnway has the exact opposite problem as Iglesias: He's ready to contribute in the majors with his bat right now, but is held back by defensive limitations. Lavarnway has well above-average power -- especially when he pulls the ball -- and mashed 34 homeruns and 25 doubles between three levels last season. Behind the plate, Lavarnway has no problems calling games, but is below average against the run game and needs work on blocking pitches as well. Ideally, Lavarnway will progress into a Mike Napoli-type player who can catch twice a week while primarily DH-ing. If the Red Sox don’t retain Jason Varitek, Lavarnway could begin the season in the majors.

Top 10 Prospects Moved at 2011 Deadline

Below is my annual Top 10 Prospects Moved at the Trade Deadline for NESN. Feel free to comment!

The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and while major league players on the move have stolen most of the headlines, a wealth of minor league talent has changed hands as well. Unlike the 2010 deadline that saw few impact prospects switch organizations, 2011 saw future aces, power hitters and MLB-ready arms exchange uniforms with regularity.

The 10 best prospects who switched teams at or during the days leading up to the deadline are ranked below. Most of these players won't see the majors until next season at the earliest, but they'll aim to ensure that at future trade deadlines, their organizations are looking to add talent for deep playoff runs.

10. Charlie Furbush, pitcher, Seattle Mariners
Furbush was a part of the deal that saw Doug Fister and David Pauley shipped to Detroit, and the 25-year-old left-hander offers the Mariners some versatility going forward. Should the M's choose to put Furbush in the rotation, he has the ceiling of a No. 4 starter, and his tendency to give up the long ball would be somewhat mitigated by spacious Safeco Field. Furbush's lack of a true out-pitch means his future may lie in the bullpen, though, where he would likely become a solid set-up man or high-leverage reliever. Either Drew Smyly orChance Ruffin is rumored to be the PTBNL in the Fister deal, and either would bump Furbush off this list. A case can also be made to place Joe Wieland, dealt from Texas to San Diego, here on the list instead of Furbush.

9. Francisco Martinez, third baseman, Seattle Mariners
Until the final player is named, Martinez is the best prospect the Mariners received in the Fister trade. While he may not be an industry-consensus Top 100 prospect, he's likely not all that far off either. Martinez won't turn 21 until September, yet he is holding his own at Double-A with a .282 average, 46 RBIs and seven home runs and seven steals. His .319 on-base percentage leaves much to be desired, but he looks like a future everyday player, and has the tools to be an outstanding defensive third baseman. It's hard to find many impact positional prospects in the Mariners' system, and Martinez immediately becomes one of their best.

8. Zach Stewart, pitcher, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were largely slammed for dealing Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen to save payroll while in the midst of a pennant race, but they did little to harm their starting pitching depth by acquiring Stewart in return. Dealt from the Reds to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen at the 2009 deadline, Stewart has been a consistent if not phenomenal performer at Double-A over the past two years, and started three games for the Jays earlier this season as well. Stewart could use a little more minor league seasoning, but is still just 24, and should compete for a spot in the White Sox rotation next year. He profiles as a No. 3 starter if he continues to improve his command.

7. Trayvon Robinson, outfielder, Seattle Mariners
Perhaps no move during this year's trading deadline was as odd as the Dodgers' decision to give up Robinson, who is exactly the type of young, cost-controlled talent they should be looking to acquire. Robinson has seen his value increase this year with a phenomenal Triple-A campaign, as the switch-hitter has hit .297-26-71 with eight steals and a .375 OBP through 416 plate appearances. Scouts believe the uptick in power may be a fluke, but Robinson should reach double-digit homers and steals in the majors. He can play an above-average left field or be an adequate defender in center. The Mariners will likely keep Robinson in Triple-A until the minor league season ends, but expect him to be up with the big league club in September, and to complete for a starting job next spring.

6. Alex White, starting pitcher, Colorado Rockies
White is the most major league-ready piece the Rockies received from the Indians in the Ubaldo Jimenezdeal, but is currently on the disabled list with a finger injury -– a worse fate for White than for most pitchers, since his best pitch is a splitter. White has flown through the minors since being drafted 15th overall in 2009 and has less than 200 innings pitched in his professional career. If he can continue to induce ground balls at an above-average rate and improve on his slider, he has the chance to be a No. 3 starter. If not, he still profiles as a late-inning reliever or possible closer.

2011 MLB Trade Deadline: Ten Prospects Likely to Move

With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline fewer than two weeks away, dozens of established major leaguers and intriguing prospects across all of baseball will be changing teams. Teams in contention will struggle with the challenge of winning now without mortgaging their future, while those in rebuilding mode will look to stock up for 2012 and beyond.

Last year's deadline saw current major leaguers such as Dan Hudson, Wilson Ramos and Brett Wallace switch uniforms, as well as Top 100 prospects such as Tyler Skaggs and Pat Corbin. The 2011 deadline is sure to feature some major names from the prospect world as well.

The players on this list aren't ranked by their ability, but rather by the likelihood with which they will be dealt in the coming days. All trades imagined below are purely speculative, but consist of names that are frequently mentioned as trade candidates.

10. Dayan Viciedo, first base/designated hitter, Chicago White Sox
Viciedo’s name isn't one that's mentioned frequently in rumors, but it makes sense for him to be dealt from a logistical standpoint. Viciedo is hitting at a .322/.371/.525 (BA/OBP/SLG) clip in Triple-A, but while he is clearly MLB-ready, he has nowhere to play in Chicago. Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn represent long-term commitments at first base and designated hitter, respectively, and Viciedo would be a defensive liability at third base or in the outfield. Still just 21 years old, Viciedo would draw a ton of interest on the trade market, and could be used to land a quality reliever –- think Leo Nunez -- or a more offensively potent third baseman thanBrent Morel. 

9. Robbie Erlin, starting pitcher, Texas Rangers
Erlin is probably the fourth or fifth best prospect on this list, and as such could be used as the centerpiece of a deal for a top-of-the-rotation starter or a closer. Still just 19 years old, Erlin has already reached Double-A, and is largely dominating there through 54 2/3 innings. The Rangers are unlikely to deal their two best prospects -–Jurickson Profar or Martin Perez -- but may decide Erlin is expendable for a Heath Bell, Mike Adams or Jon Danks. He could be a mid-rotation starter by as soon as this time next season.

8. Desmond Jennings, outfielder, Tampa Bay Rays
It makes little sense for the Rays to trade Jennings, but then again it makes no sense for Jennings to still be in Triple-A. The 24-year-old center fielder is hitting .280 with 12 homers, 17 stolen bases and a .375 on-base percentage. He's battled injuries throughout his career, but he'd be an immediate upgrade over Sam Fuld orJustin Ruggiano and could assume leadoff duties from Johnny Damon. The Rays are more likely to tradeB.J. Upton, but if they don't, Jennings could be dealt for a middle-of-the-order bat or an elite bullpen arm if they decide to shoot for the playoffs this season.

7. Josh Reddick, outfielder, Boston Red Sox
Reddick has fast become a fan favorite in Boston. But while he's capable of being an everyday big league right fielder, his value will never be higher than it is now. Reddick has hit .367 with four homers and 18 RBI in his impressive 2011 campaign, but he's done so in a very small sample size, and he can't sustain that type of success. Plus, many still view Ryan Kalish as the Red Sox' right fielder of the future. Reddick wouldn't be nearly enough if the Red Sox shoot for a big name like Jose Reyes or Ubaldo Jimenez, but if they set their sights on Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Cuddyer or Carlos Beltran, his name could come into play.

6. Charlie Furbush, pitcher, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are rumored to be seeking a mid-rotation starter in the Derek Lowe or Jeremy Guthrie mold, and Furbush is the type of solid, yet non-elite prospect who could be involved in such a deal. Furbush has pitched well at Triple-A this season, with a 3.17 ERA and 10.17 K/9 rate, but allowed five home runs in just 29 innings with a 4.03 ERA in the majors. His ceiling is as a mid-rotation starter, but he may end up in the bullpen. Don't expect the Tigers to trade Andy Oliver or Nick Castellanos and consider Jacob Turner all but untouchable.

2011 MLB Mock Draft: Cole, Rendon and Bundy Take Top 3 Slots

Below is my 2011 MLB Mock Draft, which is featured here on NESN. Based on information from Keith Law, Jim Callis, Frank Pileire and Jonathan Mayo -- plus hours and hours of scanning scouting reports and watching video -- here's my best guess at how the first round will shape up tomorrow.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
The Pirates have also been linked to Virginia lefty Hultzen, but it will be hard to pass on the upside of Cole, who has outstanding stuff and should move quickly through the minors once he improves his command. Pairing Cole with Jameson Taillon – the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft – could give the Pirates one of the best young one-two rotation punches in baseball as soon as mid-2013.

2. Seattle Mariners – Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Rendon was the early favorite to go first overall, but has been limited mostly to DH duties this season thanks to ankle and shoulder injuries. Far and away the best college position player in the draft, Rendon’s ceiling is as a slower Evan Longoria, capable of playing Gold Glove-caliber defense and batting in the middle of a lineup. He’d be a great addition to a Mariners system short on impact players.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks – Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso High School (OK)
The D-backs had been linked to Hultzen for weeks, but more recent rumors have them setting their sites on Bundy. The top prep arm in the draft, Bundy has outstanding command and should advance faster than most high school products. He has as much upside as any pitcher in this class, and could be in a big league rotation by 2014.

4. Baltimore Orioles – Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia 
The O’s would likely prefer for Bundy to fall to them, but would be quite content with Hultzen, who has a good shot at being the first pitcher from this draft to permanently join a major league rotation. Adding Hultzen to a rotation with fellow southpaws Brian Matusz and Zach Britton would be downright unfair to left-handed batters everywhere.

5. Kansas City Royals – Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
The Royals are setting themselves up to be a legitimately competitive ballclub from 2013-2016, and will want a prospect who can contribute during that time frame. Enter Bauer, who is frequently compared to Tim Lincecum and would be a Top 3 pick in weaker drafts. He may beat his current rotation-mate Cole to the majors, although some teams are concerned about his heavy workloads.

6. Washington Nationals – Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner Edgerton High School (KS)
There aren’t many surefire picks in this draft, but Starling to the Nationals seems to be one of them. Starling is far and away the best high school bat in the class, and has the chance to be a Carlos Beltran-type five-tool center fielder in the future. It’ll take a big bonus to keep him from playing quarterback at Nebraska, but the Nationals have been big spenders in the past two drafts.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks – Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy (FL)
The best shortstop prospect in this draft class, Lindor doesn’t project to move through the minors quickly but could be a perennial All-Star once he arrives in the majors. He won’t hit for much power, but he’s a switch-hitter who should hit for high averages while providing above-average defense. The D-backs will be tempted to draft a college arm here, but a potential franchise shortstop may be too good to pass up.

8. Cleveland Indians – Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Indians are rumored to be in love with Bauer, but there’s very little chance he falls this far. Still, the Indians will likely opt for a college arm here, with Gray and Georgia’s Jed Bradley the most likely choices. Some believe Gray’s future is as a reliever, but if he can hold his velocity deeper into outings he has No. 1 starter potential.

9. Chicago Cubs – Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow High School (OK)
In most draft classes, Bradley would be the top high school pitcher. Thanks to Bundy, he’s not even the best prep arm in his state. Bradley may take a little longer than his interstate rival to reach the majors, but he has a more durable frame and his ceiling is just as high. The Cubs will likely have to provide Bradley with a significant bonus, as he has an offer to play quarterback at Oklahoma.

10. San Diego Padres – Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
This is an unprotected pick since the Padres failed to sign first-rounder Karsten Whitson last year, so look for them to take a player they know they can sign here. Barnes fits the bill, and while he may be slower to the majors than some of the other top college arms, he still has ace potential. The Padres are also interested in college bats such as George Springer and Corey Spangenberg.

11. Houston Astros – Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia
The Astros are rumored to have their heart set on Archie Bradley, but unfortunately for them it appears as though the Cubs do as well. The Astros will have to settle for a different Bradley, and while Jed lacks No. 1 starter potential, he should be a viable mid-rotation innings-eater in short order. Taylor Jungmann and Taylor Guerrieri are also possibilities, and there are rumors that Chris Reed may go here as well.

12. Milwaukee Brewers – Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
The Brewers should do cartwheels if Jungmann falls to them, as he’s become somewhat underrated amidst the hype surrounding some higher-ceiling arms. Jungmann has been amazingly consistent during his career at Texas, and is one of the safest picks in the draft. He can help the Brewers restock a system drained by off-season trades for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and profiles as a durable No. 2 starter.

13. New York Mets – Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley High School (SC)
The Mets may prefer college arms such as Jungmann or Jed Bradey, but Guerrieri is one hell of a consolation prize. Guerrieri is likely to need three or four seasons in the minors -- as many prep arms do -- but he has top-of-the-rotation potential, and the Mets are about to enter a rebuilding phase anyway. His upside is nearly as high as Bundy’s or Archie Bradley’s.

14. Florida Marlins – Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
Unless one of the elite arms falls it seems as though the Marlins will focus on offense with this pick, and Mahtook provides a nice combination of upside and probability. He profiles as a leadoff hitter and center fielder in the Shane Victorino mold, and should move through the minors fairly quickly. The Marlins are also linked to Spangenberg and Levi Michael.

15. Milwaukee Brewers – Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
After going the safe route with Jungmann at pick 12, the Brewers can afford to roll the dice with Meyer here. Meyer has shaky command and may end up as a reliever, but if he can develop a third pitch and learn to repeat his delivery, he has ace potential. This is an unprotected pick due to the Brewers’ failure to sign Dylan Covey last year, though, so the team may opt for an easier sign.

16. Los Angeles Dodgers – Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Most believe that the cash-strapped Dodgers will have to stick to MLB’s slotting system, so a cheap, medium-upside pick like Anderson makes sense. Anderson profiles as a mid-rotation southpaw in the Joe Saundersmold, but he should move through the minors quickly and won’t command a huge bonus. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Dodgers target Javier Baez here instead.

17. Los Angeles Angels -- Javier Baez, 3B/SS, Arlington County Day School (FL)
The Angels would love for Lindor to somehow fall here and also have a strong history with high school arms, but Baez provides the type of power bat they currently lack in their system. Baez won’t move quickly, has no chance of staying at shortstop and needs to tone down his on-field antics, but he comes with serious upside as well.

18. Oakland Athletics – George Springer, OF, UConn
Springer has the best combination of tools of any hitter in this class save for Starling, but there are serious mechanical flaws with his swing that may see him fall past the first 15 picks. The A’s are rumored to be high on Springer, and would likely settle for college bats such as Spangenberg or Kolten Wong if the UConn product is off the board.

19. Boston Red Sox – Levi Michael, SS, UNC
The Red Sox aren’t typically linked to Michael, and are rumored to be in on higher-upside guys who will be tough to sign, such as Josh Bell, Blake Swihart or Meyer if he falls this far. But just as they took Kolbrin Vitek with their first selection in 2010 and focused on riskier players later, look for the Red Sox to take a high-probability player at 19 and role the dice at picks 26, 36 and 40.

20. Colorado Rockies – C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
It’s tough to find a mock draft that doesn’t have Cron going to the Rockies, and it’s not difficult to see why. Although it’s rarely a good idea for MLB teams to draft for need, Cron should progress through the minors quickly, and the Rockies lack an heir-apparent to Todd Helton. The only other name the Rockies are linked to is Wong, but Cron is the more likely option. His 30-homer power would play nicely at Coors Field.

21. Toronto Blue Jays – Cory Spangenberg, 3B/OF, Indian River State
The Blue Jays are most frequently linked to Michael, but he’s off the board in this mock draft. Jay’s GM Alex Anthopoulos has focused on acquiring athletic players during his tenure, and the speedy Spangenberg fits the bill. If Brett Lawrie cements himself as the Blue Jay’s third baseman of the future, Spangenberg may be able to handle center field. Brian Goodwin is another athletic option.

22. St. Louis Cardinals – Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill High School (TN)
The Cardinals have a strong tendency to take college players, but most of the top college starters are off the board and there are plenty of intriguing prep arms remaining. Norris heads that list, and is the consensus best left-handed high school pitcher in the draft. Norris is committed to Clemson and may ask for a hefty bonus, but lefties who can hit 96 mph with frequency are rare.

23. Washington Nationals – Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy High School (AR)
The Nationals are believed to covet Meyer here, but he’s long gone in this mock draft. Howard is the best prep arm remaining, and although he’s committed to Arkansas he’d likely forgo school for a considerable bonus. Howard’s value is based mostly on projection at this point, but he has the potential to be a frontline starter a few seasons down the road.  Jose Fernandez, Robert Stephenson and Henry Owens are options here as well.

24. Tampa Bay Rays – Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
With 12 picks in the top 89, the Rays will have to mix in both high-upside players and high-probability picks. Wong is certainly the latter, and while he’s not an elite talent, he’s a safe bet to hit and reach the majors in short order. Wong profiles as a prototypical No. 2 hitter in the Mark Loretta mold, and the Rays should be able to sign him for slot and then spend money elsewhere.

25. San Diego Padres – Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State
After taking Barnes with the 10th pick the Padres would love for a cheap college bat such as Spangenberg to land here, but will settle for one of the draft’s best catchers instead. Susac is very solid defensively, but there are plenty of questions about his offense. He’s also recovering from a broken hamate bone he suffered in April. If the Padres’ draft budget is bigger than in years past, Swihart could be the pick here instead.

26. Boston Red Sox – Brandon Nimmo, OF, Cheyenne East High School (WY)
With the high-probability Michael in the bag, the Red Sox can afford to take a bigger gamble with this pick and select the toolsy but untested Nimmo, who’s faced little high-level competition to this point. He’s a long-term project and strongly committed to Arkansas, but is one of the best talents left. Swihart is also a possibility here, as are Bell, Josh Osich and Austin Hedges.

27) Cincinnati Reds – Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra High School (CA)
The Reds would probably love if Anderson fell here, but few remaining prep arms can match the upside of Stephenson, who could go as high as to the Astros at 11 or the Dodgers at 16. Stephenson is a long-term pitching project and is committed to Washington, but would be a boon to a Reds’ system that doesn’t have much talent in the low minors.

28) Atlanta Braves – Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso High School (FL)
The Braves are supposedly intent on taking the best available prep arm here, and a good case can be made for Fernandez. He’s a local kid – the Braves always have strong ties to player in the Georgia area – and could be a top-of-the-rotation starter if he watches his conditioning. Owens, Michael Kelly, Joe Ross and Lawrence Academy product Tyler Beede are all possibilities here as well.

29) San Francisco Giants – Henry Owens, LHP, Edison High School (CA)
Zack Wheeler notwithstanding, the Giants don’t have many high-ceiling pitchers in their system. Owens could change that immediately, and while he’ll likely need considerable time in the minors, he has as much upside as any lefty in this draft. The Giants have had luck recently developing southpaws such as Madison Bumgarnerand Jonathan Sanchez, so Owens makes sense here.

30) Minnesota Twins – Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford
The Twins love their college pitchers, and while they could opt for a high-probability arm such as Grayson Garvin, Reed provides much more upside. Reed was used as a reliever in college, but he has a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, and comes with big potential as a starter if stretched out. Stuff-wise he’s similar to Chris Sale, although he lacks the White Sox rookie’s control.

31) Tampa Bay Rays – Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami Dade College
The Rays have had success with athletic outfielders in the past – think Rocco Baldelli, BJ Upton andDesmond Jennings – and will look to continue that trend with Goodwin. Goodwin could go much higher than this, but the potential five-tool center fielder would feel right at home staying in Florida. He should sign for slot, allowing the Rays to spend more later in the draft.

32) Tampa Bay Rays – Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland High School (NM)
Swihart isn’t a lock to stay at catcher and will want a big bonus to keep him away from the University of Texas, but the switch-hitter has one of the best bats in the draft. With two safer players in Wong and Goodwin already drafted, the Rays can gamble on Swihart here, and hope they land the next Wil Myers. Hedges is also a possibility, as is Bell if the Rays are feeling particularly daring.

33) Texas Rangers – Andrew Chafin, LHP, Kent State
Chafin is yet another hard-throwing lefty in this draft, although he comes with some red tape as he required Tommy John surgery and missed the 2010 season. Chafin’s fastball is as good as ever, but his secondary pitchers are inconsistent and he needs to improve his control. He comes with a good amount of upside, though, and shouldn’t command a huge bonus. Osich is also a possibility here, as is Travis Harrison.

Reliever Roundup: Aaron Crow, Jon Rauch, and ... David Hernandez?

Hello all,

Some good news for me this week as I've been added to the RotoHardball staff. I'll be covering relievers every Wednesday for the site, and will post the links on here.

This week I tackled Aaron Crow and Jon Rauch for regular leaguers, and David Hernandez ... yes, David Hernandez ... for deep leaguers.

Let me know what you think and be sure to check out the rest of the new RH writers!

Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Rankings, Tier 2

Hello all,

My second tier fantasy starter rankings went up today can be seen here. As it turns out this is my last fantasy article that will appear on NESN since the season started today, but I'll still write up a reliever ranking for those of you who are interested.

For the next few months I'll primarily be writing about the minor leagues for NESN, but my work will also be appearing at a few other sites as well.

Thanks per usual.

26. Ted Lilly, ChC
27. Wandy Rodriguez, Hou
28. Brett Anderson, Oak
29. Jonathan Sanchez, SF
30. Phil Hughes, NYY

Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Rankings, Tier 1

Sorry for the delay, but the first tier of fantasy starting pitchers is up on NESN. You can see it here, and tier two should be up shortly.

Please check out the "2011 Fantasy Rankings" page to see a complete list of rankings thus far.

1. Roy Halladay, Phi
2. Felix Hernandez, Sea
3. Tim Lincecum, SF
4. Cliff Lee, Phi
5. Jon Lester, Bos

Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Rankings, Tier 2

The second half of my outfield rankings are up on NESN and can be seen here. Let me know what you think.

As always, you can see my complete rankings on the "2011 Fantasy Rankings" page.

26) Curtis Granderson, NYY
27) Corey Hart, Mil
28) Michael Bourn, Hou
29) Drew Stubbs, Cin
30) Torii Hunter, LAA

Fantasy Baseball: Outfielder Rankings, Tier 1

Next up on the list are fantasy outfielders. I've broken the list down into two parts since it's so large, and the first 25 can be found here.

As always, check out my "2011 Fantasy Rankings" page for a complete list of all my rankings.

1) Ryan Braun, Mil
2) Carl Crawford, Bos
3) Carlos Gonzalez, Col
4) Matt Holliday, StL
5) Josh Hamilton, Tex

Fantasy Baseball: Shortstop Rankings

Sorry for the delay, but spring break prevented me from turning out articles as quickly as I hoped.

Regardless, my fantasy shortstop rankings are up and the outfield is soon to follow.

Click here to see the rankings, or head over to my "2011 Fantasy Rankings" page for a complete list. Below are my Top 5.

1) Hanley Ramirez, Fla
2) Troy Tulowitzki, Col
3) Jose Reyes, NYM
4) Jimmy Rollins, Phi
5) Derek Jeter, NYY

Fantasy Baseball: Third Baseman Rankings

Hello all,

Here are my third baseman rankings, which come a full week after my second baseman rankings were released. I'm on spring break and out of the country, so the shortstop rankings may not come much faster.

Below is my Top 5 list. Check out the Top 3 prospects for third base and links to all positions on my "2011 Fantasy Rankings" page above.

1) Evan Longoria, TB
2) David Wright, NYM
3) Alex Rodriguez, NYY
4) Ryan Zimmerman, Was
5) Kevin Youkilis, Bos

Fantasy Baseball: Second Baseman Rankings

Next up are my second baseman rankings, which went up mid-day Monday. Third base rankings to follow shortly.

Click here to see the full rankings, and head over to my 2011 Fantasy Rankings page for a complete list of positions I've analyzed so far.

1) Robinson Cano, NY
2) Chase Utley, Phi
3) Dustin Pedroia, Bos
4) Ian Kinsler, Tex
5) Dan Uggla, Atl

Fantasy Baseball: First Baseman Rankings

My first base rankings are now up on NESN. Feel free to ask me a question here, I can't respond directly on the NESN site.

My Top 5 are listed below. Click here to read the rest, and here to read my fantasy catcher rankings.

1) Albert Pujols, StL
2) Miguel Cabrera, Det
3) Joey Votto, Cin
4) Adrian Gonzalez, Bos
5) Mark Teixeira, NYY

For Many Red Sox Prospects, The Future is Unclear

Which Red Sox prospects will feel the most pressure and face the most scrutiny in Spring Training this year?

Maybe Jose Iglesias comes to mind. He’s projected by many to be the Sox’ starting shortstop by this time next season, and creates a media buzz every time he takes infield practice.

Many might say Ryan Kalish, who performed admirably during his time with the big league club last season, but has likely been pushed back to the minors by the acquisition of Carl Crawford.

Some may be inclined to say that Felix Doubront or Michael Bowden face the most pressure. The Red Sox have dramatically improved their bullpen this offseason, and there may not be a spot for either on the major league roster.

But what about the players who profile as future starters but have no clear future in the organization? In many ways, there’s even more pressure on them than there is on the Sox’ supposed stars of tomorrow.

Below are five Red Sox prospects capable of being dependable everyday players in the majors, but who will likely have to do so in a different organization.

1) Lars Anderson, 1B: Once viewed as the Red Sox’ top prospect and first baseman of the future, Anderson has seen his stalk fall precipitously over the past two seasons. Despite making his first major league appearance last year, many believed Anderson to have fallen behind fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo on the team’s long-term depth chart. Rizzo may no longer be of concern to Anderson, but the man he was traded for, Adrian Gonzalez, figures to be Boston’s first baseman for the better part of the next decade.

While it appears as though Anderson has no future in the Red Sox’ organization, that might not be the case. Gonzalez is expected to sign an extension shortly after the season begins, but he is still technically only under control for the 2011 season. David Ortiz is also scheduled to be a free agent after the season ends, and unless he’s willing to take a fairly substantial pay cut, he may not return for 2012. Anderson is the most logical and capable internal option when it comes to filling either of these two potential vacancies, but it’s unlikely that both Gonzalez and Ortiz would both be allowed to walk after the 2011 season.

2) Will Middlebrooks, 3B: Middlebrooks isn’t a well-known prospect, but is one of the most athletic players in the Red Sox’ organization and should start this season at Double-A Portland. Although he doesn’t profile as a consistent All-Star, Middlebrooks does have plus-power and excellent defensive skills, and could grow to be a poor man’s Mike Lowell.

If Gonzalez does sign an extension with the Red Sox, it’s tough to see where Middlebrooks fits in with the Red Sox’ future. Kevin Youkilis’ contract runs through the 2013 season, but he is exactly the type of player the Red Sox are likely to re-sign, and is in many ways the face of the franchise along with Dustin Pedroia. Middlebrooks also faces pressure from below him in the system, most notably from recent draftee Garin Cechinni, who is considered by most to be a superior prospect. And while Kolbrin Vitek, the Red Sox first pick in the 2010 draft, may eventually fit best in right field, the Red Sox are giving him a shot at third base as well. In short, Middlebrooks has limited time to entrench himself as a serious part of the Red Sox’ future.

3) Josh Reddick, OF: Similarly to how Anderson was once viewed as the Red Sox’ first baseman of the future, Reddick was once viewed as the heir-apparent to J.D. Drew. With a phenomenal arm, above-average speed and developing power, Reddick has all the tools of a prototypical right fielder, but also has an aggressive approach that the Red Sox tend to frown upon as an organization.

As a result, fan favorite Kalish has moved ahead of Reddick on the depth chart, and most assume he will supplant Drew in 2012. Reddick’s situation was further muddled with the acquisition of Crawford, who will man left field for the Red Sox for the next seven seasons. The left-handed Reddick may seem like a perfect fourth outfielder, but with Kalish, Crawford, and Jacoby Ellsbury all lefties themselves, it’s hard to find a place for Reddick moving forward. Additionally, the Red Sox spent their first two picks of the 2010 draft on right-handed hitters who can play right field in Vitek and Bryce Brentz, meaning that Reddick may best serve the organization as trade bait.

4) Oscar Tejeda, 2B: Another of the Sox’ mostly unheralded prospects, Tejeda profiles as an above-average offensive second baseman, and should spend most of the 2011 season at Double-A despite being just 21 years old. Tejeda has 15-homer, 15-steal potential, and projects to be at worst an adequate defender as well. His value has diminished since he’s had to move off of shortstop, but hat move has been somewhat offset by his emerging power.

Tejeda is most obviously blocked by former MVP and Boston icon Pedroia, who is under team control through the 2015 season and who the Red Sox are very unlikely to let walk away. If he alone were not a big enough obstacle for Tejeda to overcome, the young second baseman is blocked from a utility spot by Jed Lowrie, and would likely have to compete with Yamaico Navarro as well. The Red Sox also spent a high draft pick on second base prospect Sean Coyle this past season – a player who compares favorably to Pedroia – and have two higher upside middle infield prospects in Derrik Gibson and Xander Bogaerts as well. In short, Tejeda is perhaps the longest shot of any player on this list to make an impact with the Red Sox.

5) Junichi Tazawa, RHP: A season ago Tazawa was viewed by many as the Sox’ seventh starter, behind Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield. Despite having less than one full year of experience in American baseball under his belt, Tazawa made four starts for the Red Sox in 2009, and was viewed by most as a solid No. 4 starter who could be MLB ready in short order.

All of that changed when Tazawa needed Tommy John surgery before last season, however, and the young right-hander has a long way to go before he regains his status as a borderline Top 100 prospect. Anthony Ranaudo, Drake Britton, Stolmy Pimental, and Doubront are all almost certainly ahead of Tazawa on the Sox’ organizational depth chart now, and Brandon Workman, Chris Balcolm-Miller and Bowden may be as well. Plus, even if Tazawa does recover in short order, all of the Red Sox’ current rotation members except for Matsuzaka are under team control through at least 2014, meaning Tazawa will likely have to transition to a role in the bullpen if he hopes to see major league time within the next two seasons.

All five of these players may still have an impact for the Red Sox, and long-term organizational depth charts rarely remain the same from year-to-year. Injury or ineffectiveness can strike any player any time, and could give all of these prospects a chance to shine at the major league level.

But if nothing else, the odds are stacked firmly against mid-tier prospects like these, and while they don’t have to worry about the spotlight, they do face a far more daunting adversary.

Job security.

Fantasy Baseball: Catcher Rankings

Hey Guys,

Sorry for the long delay in posts. As I stated on Twitter, the wisdom of starting a Rotation Rankings series months before rosters were finalized proved to be a bit dubious.

That being said, I'm going to be providing fantasy rankings for NESN.com this pre-season, and will link to all stories here.

First up is catchers, which you can check out here. My Top 5 are listed below, and first base is to follow shortly.

1) Joe Mauer, Min
2) Brian McCann, Atl
3) Victor Martinez, Det
4) Carlos Santana, Cle
5) Buster Posey, SF

Feel free to ask me questions/leave me comments here.

Ranking the Rotations: The American League West

Next on my series of rotational rankings is the AL West. Rankings are based on the upside, risk and depth of each rotation, but will not be related to the potential fantasy impact of any pitchers.

As always, feedback is appreciated.
(* signifies a new acquisition, ^ signifies rookie)


1) Los Angeles Angels


Projected Rotation

1) Jered Weaver, RHP: Weaver had a breakout campaign in 2010, transforming himself from a solid mid-rotation pitcher to a Cy Young contender. Weaver saw a dramatic increase in his K/9 while lowering his BB/9 and HR/9, and had a sustainable strand rate and BABIP as well. Look for another 5-6 WAR performance in 2011.

2) Dan Haren, RHP: Haren had his worst campaign since 2006 last season, but was still good enough to post 4.5 WAR, and pitched better once moving from the D-Backs to the Angels. Haren will be 30 years old for most of the 2011 season, and while he’s losing some velocity, it’s safe to expect another 200+ innings and 4-6 WAR from one of baseball’s most reliable pitchers.

3) Ervin Santana, RHP: Santana earned 17 wins for the Angels in 2010, but posted his worst K/9 rate since 2006 and was good for just 2.5 WAR as well. He needs to rely on his well above average slider and lower his 91.8% contact rate on strikes if he hopes to return to the dominant ways of his 2008 campaign.

4) Joel Pineiro, RHP: Pineiro had a fairly predictable campaign in 2010, losing significant value from his career-best 2009 season but relying on good control and a high GB% to post a solid 3.84 FIP. The Angels will need him to pitch more innings in 2011 – he threw just 152.1 last season – but if he does, 3 WAR is within reach for the veteran sinkerballer.

5) Scott Kazmir, LHP: Kazmir seemed like a sold buy-low candidate when the Angels traded for him during the 2009 season, but posted the worst campaign of his career in 2010. Kazmir saw a decrease in his K/9 rate and velocity while his walk, homerun and contact rates all rose, and featured no above average pitches for the first time in his career.

Other Options: Trevor Bell is likely the club’s first option should injury or ineffectiveness strike, and may even have a shot at beating out Kazmir for a rotation spot this spring. His upside is limited, but he’s capable of posting positive WAR if given enough innings. Matt Palmer started 13 games for the Angles in 2009 and one last season, but will likely pitch mainly out of the bullpen in 2011. Trevor Reckling^ is one of the Angels’ better prospects, but had a rough 2010 campaign and will need to drastically improve his command before he reaches the majors.

Final Analysis: The A’s have more depth and the Mariners have the division’s best pitcher, but no other team in the AL West has as strong of a front four as the Angels. The one-two punch of Weaver and Haren is one of the most underrated duos in the majors. Both are 6+ WAR candidates and they should win 30 games between them. Santana seems to be headed in the wrong direction but still brings moderate upside, and Pineiro is a steady mid-rotation option. I’m not overly optimistic about Kazmir returning to his 2005-2008 form, but the Angels have a solid-if-unspectacular option in Bell, and if he falters, Palmer is an experienced emergency starter. Reckling likely needs more time in the minors, but could contribute as a mid-rotation starter later in the season as well.


2) Oakland Athletics


Projected Rotation

1) Brett Anderson, LHP: Anderson was viewed as a major breakout candidate last season, and while he was good when healthy, injuries limited him to just 112.1 innings. It’s fair to label Anderson as an ace-in-the-making and he has elite control, but I won’t project him for more than 4-5 WAR until I see him throw over 200 innings and lower his contact rates.

2) Trevor Cahill, RHP: Cahill is in many ways the poster child for regression candidates after posting a .238 BABIP last season, and while his GB% and strand rate were good, that type of luck is unsustainable. I still like Cahill to most a mid-3s FIP and net 3-4 WAR as he continues to improve, but don’t expect him to match his 2010 win or ERA totals.

3) Gio Gonzalez, LHP: Gonzalez is another talented A’s youngster who is likely to improve his basic skill set but may see some regression in his primary numbers in 2011. Gonzalez posted a 4.13 BB/9 rate and an extraordinarily high 78.1 strand rate last season, and was slightly aided by a .283 BABIP as well. 3+ WAR is feasible, but expect his ERA to approach 4.00 in 2011.

4) Dallas Braden, LHP: Braden posted nearly identical numbers in 2010 as he did in 2009, and it’s safe to predict that the soft-throwing will do much the same in 2011. Despite his low 5.28 K/9 rate, Braden’s excellent control and above average contact rates allow him to succeed, and he should once again net somewhere between 2.5-3 WAR for the A’s next season.

5) Rich Harden*, RHP: Harden had the worst season of his career in 2010, posting negative WAR for the first time and throwing just 92 innings for the Rangers. He seems one more arm injury away from moving to a full-time role in relief, and while it would be foolish to predict him to throw more than 140 innings, he’s had success in Oakland in the past.

Other Options: Brandon McCarthy* makes Harden look durable by comparison, but has a decent chance of winning the No. 5 starter’s spot out of spring training. Tyson Ross^ started just two games at the MLB level in 2010, but has been a starter throughout his minor league career and has No. 3 or 4 starter potential. Josh Outman started 12 games for the A’s in 2009, but didn’t pitch at all last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Clay Mortensen^ had a solid year in Triple-A but is a fringe MLB option, and the same can be said for recent acquisition Guillermo Moscoso*^. Bobby Cramer started four games for Oakland last season, but is a wildcard after pitching in Mexico for most of 2010.

Final Analysis: Many will be surprised to see the A’s ranked behind the Angels, but while I think Cahill and Gonzalez will continue to progress as pitchers, both should see statistical regression in 2011. Anderson still possesses the skill set needed to become the next Jon Lester, but needs to show more durability. Braden is a predictable and reliable number four starter, but has likely reached his ceiling. The A’s have two high-risk options for their No. 5 spot in Harden and McCarthy, and while both have moderate upside, both would likely just serve as a placeholder for Ross. Outman, Mortensen, Moscoso and Cramer will all compete for a spot in the A’s bullpen as a long reliever, but none carry significant potential as major league starters.


3) Texas Rangers


Projected Rotation

1) C.J. Wilson, LHP: Wilson had the best season of his career in 2010, making a seamless transition form the bullpen to the rotation. He clearly has the ability to remain a starter, but is a candidate for at least minor regression, as his 204 IP were nearly three time more than his previous season-high, his strand rate was 72.4%, and his BB/9 rate was high as well.

2) Colby Lewis, RHP: Lewis seemed an unlikely candidate for success last season after spending 2008 and 2009 in Japan, but was arguably the Rangers’ most consistent pitcher in 2010. Lewis’s 3.55 FIP matched up very closely to his 3.72 ERA, and with good strikeout and walk ratios, I expect him to match his 4.4 WAR from 2010 next season.

3) Tommy Hunter, RHP: Hunter was the beneficiary of extremely good luck in 2010, as his .264 BABIP and 80.7% strand rate are both unsustainable. Hunter posted a below-average K/9 rate and suffered from high contact rates as well, and unless he drastically improves his GB%, I don’t see him breaking 1.5 WAR next season.

4) Derek Holland, LHP: Holland has the biggest upside of anyone in Texas’ rotation, but has faced control and injury problems throughout his short career. Holland posted a promising 8.48 K/9 and 0.94 HR/9 in limited action last season, and if he stays healthy enough to throw 200 innings, he’s good enough to post around 4 WAR.

5) Brandon Webb*, RHP: Webb was among the most dominant pitchers in baseball from 2005-2008, but has thrown just four major league innings since. A groundball pitcher like Webb shouldn’t have to regain all his velocity to rebound, but if he’s truly throwing 82 mph as some reports have suggested, he’s no longer viable major league starter.

Other Options: Neftali Feliz is a controversial candidate for conversion to the rotation, as he’s been dynamic as the Rangers’ closer. Scott Feldman had a phenomenal 2009 campaign, but struggled mightily in 2010 and may begin next season on the DL with a knee injury. Tanner Scheppers^ has a big-time arm and No. 2-3 starter upside, but has been used mostly as reliever in the minors. Matt Harrison is perhaps the most likely candidate to make the rotation should Feldman or Webb prove inadequate. Omar Beltre made two starts for the Rangers last season, but is a fringe major league option. Michael Kirkman^ has plenty of minor league experience, but has never started at the MLB level.

Final Analysis: Wilson and Lewis should both be fairly productive again in 2011, but both profile best as mid-rotation starters. Hunter looks like a prime candidate for regression, but some of his lost value should be offset by an improving Holland. The fifth starter’s spot is wide open. Webb would represent a great comeback story, but is unlikely to contribute much. A recovering Feldman and Kirkman are unknown quantities at this point, and Beltre and Harrison are fringe starting options. Scheppers brings upside, but his lack of control means he’s likely best suited for a future in the bullpen, and the Rangers seem unwilling to tamper with Feliz’s success as a closer. In short, the Rangers’ rotation has some upside but comes with a decent chance of regression as well, and is clearly not of the same caliber as the rotations of the A’s or Angels.


4) Seattle Mariners


Projected Rotation

1) Felix Hernandez, RHP: Hernandez is still entering the prime of his career – he’ll be just 25 next season -- and could improve on his Cy Young 2010 campaign. King Felix’s strikeout rate has increased four seasons in a row, and if he can continue to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone, he could post 7+ WAR in 2011.

2) Jason Vargas, LHP: Vargas had far and away the best season of his career in 2010, relying on a changeup that suddenly improved to 15.6 runs above average and a homerun rate less than half of what it was in 2009. Vargas’ .283 BABIP is likely to even out, but it’s possible he could put together another 2 WAR season if his changeup sticks.

3) Doug Fister, RHP: Fister posted an awful 6-14 record last season, but had a very good 3.65 FIP, showed excellent control, and gave up just 13 homeruns in 171 IP. Fister’s poor strikeout rate and very high contact rates greatly limit his ceiling, but if he can generate ground balls and continue to limit his walks, he may come close to duplicating his 2010 2.9 WAR performance.

4) David Pauley, RHP: Pauley got his first taste of consistent major league time in 2010, and was nearly exactly replacement level, posting 0.1 WAR in 15 starts for the Mariners. He doesn’t belong in a contending rotation, but is capable of adequately eating up innings until a pitcher with more upside replaces him.

5) Michael Pineda^, RHP: Pineda improved his stock as much as if not more than any prospect in baseball last season, and has the most talent of any pitcher in the Mariners’ organization not named Felix. The M’s may elect to start him in the minors, but he could win a job out of spring training, and has the ceiling of eventually becoming a 5+ WAR number two starter.

Other Options: Luke French has started 25 major league games over the past two seasons, and will likely serve as the Mariners’ swingman if he doesn’t crack the rotation. Erik Bedard is a low-risk option for the M’s, and while he hasn’t pitched since 2009, he still caries upside as a viable starter. Blake Beavan^ and Mauricio Robles^ both need more time in Triple-A, but both could be ready by midseason. Chaz Roe^ is more of an organization arm than a prospect, but could be called upon to start in an emergency.

Final Analysis: The M’s starting rotation looks pretty thin at first glance, and while the organization is undoubtedly short on impact arms, at least they have a plethora of back-end starters to choose from. Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball and Pineda is a high-impact prospect, but aside from those two right-handers, only Robles profiles as anything other than a No. 4 or 5 starter. Vargas and Fister had solid 2010 campaigns but are far from safe bets headed forward, and Beavan is in their class of pitcher. Pauley, French and Roe are fringe starting options. Bedard has a better chance of making an impact for the M’s than Brandon Webb does for the Rangers, but it’s still unlikely he plays a major role in 2011. If the Mariners' 2010 starters don't regress and their youngsters mature quickly, Seattle could outpitch Texas in 2011, but that would require everything breaking just right for the Mariners.