Below is my 2012 Top 20 Red Sox list, which appeared on NESN.com. As always, comments are appreciated!
Since the dawn of the Theo Epstein era in 2002, the Red Sox have enjoyed nearly a decade of success in the drafting and development of minor league players. Perennially considered one of the better farm systems in baseball, the Red Sox system currently contains mostly high-impact prospects in the lower levels of the minors, but there are still plenty of players ready to contribute to the 2012 squad as well.
There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Fangraphs' Mike Newman and Marc Hulet and more, plus analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here are the Red Sox' top prospects headed into the 2012 season.
Players must meet MLB rookie eligibility requirements (under 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level) to qualify for this list. Teams listed below represent the highest level each player reached in 2011.
1. Will Middlebrooks, third base, Pawtucket
One of the most athletic third base prospects in the minors, Middlebrooks enjoyed a breakout season in 2011. The 23-year-old posted a .302 average and .345 on-base percentage with 18 homers and 25 doubles in 397 plate appearances in Double-A.
Widely regarded as an above-average defender, Middlebrooks' best tools are his arm and his plus power. One area of concern for Middlebrooks is his plate discipline, as he struck out in more than 23 percent of his at-bats last season while walking less than 6 percent of the time. Middlebrooks may never develop into the type of high-OBP player Sox fans have become accustomed to, but has a ceiling as an above-average everyday third baseman in the mold of a young Mike Lowell -- albeit with inferior contact rates.
2. Anthony Ranaudo, starting pitcher, Salem
Ranaudo had a solid if unspectacular year in High-A, tossing 81 innings and posting a 4.33 ERA in 16 starts. Ranaudo's 3.95 fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggests he was better than his ERA demonstrates, but it would have been nice to see him pitch with more efficiency. The next major steps in Ranaudo's development will be further refining his changeup and building up his durability -– surpassing 140 innings pitched in 2012 would be a great sign.
Ranaudo projects more as a No. 2 starter than an ace in the majors, but he still comes with significant upside and could compete for a spot in the Sox rotation in spring training 2013.
3. Xander Bogaerts, shortstop, Greenville
This is an aggressive ranking for Bogaerts, but if you believe that the best way to win at the MLB level is through acquiring stars, there's no more exciting prospect in the Red Sox system. Bogaerts' numbers don't look entirely impressive without context, as he put up a .260-16-45 line with a .324 OBP in Greenville. But considering Bogaerts more than held his own as an 18-year-old in Single-A in his second professional season, those numbers are rather impressive.
Bogaerts may eventually outgrow shortstop and slide to third base, but his bat would profile there as well. He's at least three more seasons away from seeing the majors, but his upside is as an all-star who contributes both in the middle of the field and in the heart of a batting order.
4. Jose Iglesias, shortstop, Pawtucket
Just about every Red Sox fans knows the book on Iglesias -– he's ready to be one of the two or three best defensive shortstops in baseball right now, but he's proven to be a liability at the plate to this point in his young career.
Iglesias possesses the bat speed and hand-eye coordination necessary to hit for a solid average, but he struggles with pitch recognition and has very little power. After hitting just .235 with a .285 OBP in Triple-A last year, Iglesias will need to prove himself for a few months before seeing major league time. He's still the Sox’ shortstop of the near future, but 2011 represented a step backward in his development.
5. Ryan Lavarnway, catcher/designated hitter, Boston
Lavarnway has the exact opposite problem as Iglesias: He's ready to contribute in the majors with his bat right now, but is held back by defensive limitations. Lavarnway has well above-average power -- especially when he pulls the ball -- and mashed 34 homeruns and 25 doubles between three levels last season. Behind the plate, Lavarnway has no problems calling games, but is below average against the run game and needs work on blocking pitches as well. Ideally, Lavarnway will progress into a Mike Napoli-type player who can catch twice a week while primarily DH-ing. If the Red Sox don’t retain Jason Varitek, Lavarnway could begin the season in the majors.
