For Many Red Sox Prospects, The Future is Unclear

Which Red Sox prospects will feel the most pressure and face the most scrutiny in Spring Training this year?

Maybe Jose Iglesias comes to mind. He’s projected by many to be the Sox’ starting shortstop by this time next season, and creates a media buzz every time he takes infield practice.

Many might say Ryan Kalish, who performed admirably during his time with the big league club last season, but has likely been pushed back to the minors by the acquisition of Carl Crawford.

Some may be inclined to say that Felix Doubront or Michael Bowden face the most pressure. The Red Sox have dramatically improved their bullpen this offseason, and there may not be a spot for either on the major league roster.

But what about the players who profile as future starters but have no clear future in the organization? In many ways, there’s even more pressure on them than there is on the Sox’ supposed stars of tomorrow.

Below are five Red Sox prospects capable of being dependable everyday players in the majors, but who will likely have to do so in a different organization.

1) Lars Anderson, 1B: Once viewed as the Red Sox’ top prospect and first baseman of the future, Anderson has seen his stalk fall precipitously over the past two seasons. Despite making his first major league appearance last year, many believed Anderson to have fallen behind fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo on the team’s long-term depth chart. Rizzo may no longer be of concern to Anderson, but the man he was traded for, Adrian Gonzalez, figures to be Boston’s first baseman for the better part of the next decade.

While it appears as though Anderson has no future in the Red Sox’ organization, that might not be the case. Gonzalez is expected to sign an extension shortly after the season begins, but he is still technically only under control for the 2011 season. David Ortiz is also scheduled to be a free agent after the season ends, and unless he’s willing to take a fairly substantial pay cut, he may not return for 2012. Anderson is the most logical and capable internal option when it comes to filling either of these two potential vacancies, but it’s unlikely that both Gonzalez and Ortiz would both be allowed to walk after the 2011 season.

2) Will Middlebrooks, 3B: Middlebrooks isn’t a well-known prospect, but is one of the most athletic players in the Red Sox’ organization and should start this season at Double-A Portland. Although he doesn’t profile as a consistent All-Star, Middlebrooks does have plus-power and excellent defensive skills, and could grow to be a poor man’s Mike Lowell.

If Gonzalez does sign an extension with the Red Sox, it’s tough to see where Middlebrooks fits in with the Red Sox’ future. Kevin Youkilis’ contract runs through the 2013 season, but he is exactly the type of player the Red Sox are likely to re-sign, and is in many ways the face of the franchise along with Dustin Pedroia. Middlebrooks also faces pressure from below him in the system, most notably from recent draftee Garin Cechinni, who is considered by most to be a superior prospect. And while Kolbrin Vitek, the Red Sox first pick in the 2010 draft, may eventually fit best in right field, the Red Sox are giving him a shot at third base as well. In short, Middlebrooks has limited time to entrench himself as a serious part of the Red Sox’ future.

3) Josh Reddick, OF: Similarly to how Anderson was once viewed as the Red Sox’ first baseman of the future, Reddick was once viewed as the heir-apparent to J.D. Drew. With a phenomenal arm, above-average speed and developing power, Reddick has all the tools of a prototypical right fielder, but also has an aggressive approach that the Red Sox tend to frown upon as an organization.

As a result, fan favorite Kalish has moved ahead of Reddick on the depth chart, and most assume he will supplant Drew in 2012. Reddick’s situation was further muddled with the acquisition of Crawford, who will man left field for the Red Sox for the next seven seasons. The left-handed Reddick may seem like a perfect fourth outfielder, but with Kalish, Crawford, and Jacoby Ellsbury all lefties themselves, it’s hard to find a place for Reddick moving forward. Additionally, the Red Sox spent their first two picks of the 2010 draft on right-handed hitters who can play right field in Vitek and Bryce Brentz, meaning that Reddick may best serve the organization as trade bait.

4) Oscar Tejeda, 2B: Another of the Sox’ mostly unheralded prospects, Tejeda profiles as an above-average offensive second baseman, and should spend most of the 2011 season at Double-A despite being just 21 years old. Tejeda has 15-homer, 15-steal potential, and projects to be at worst an adequate defender as well. His value has diminished since he’s had to move off of shortstop, but hat move has been somewhat offset by his emerging power.

Tejeda is most obviously blocked by former MVP and Boston icon Pedroia, who is under team control through the 2015 season and who the Red Sox are very unlikely to let walk away. If he alone were not a big enough obstacle for Tejeda to overcome, the young second baseman is blocked from a utility spot by Jed Lowrie, and would likely have to compete with Yamaico Navarro as well. The Red Sox also spent a high draft pick on second base prospect Sean Coyle this past season – a player who compares favorably to Pedroia – and have two higher upside middle infield prospects in Derrik Gibson and Xander Bogaerts as well. In short, Tejeda is perhaps the longest shot of any player on this list to make an impact with the Red Sox.

5) Junichi Tazawa, RHP: A season ago Tazawa was viewed by many as the Sox’ seventh starter, behind Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield. Despite having less than one full year of experience in American baseball under his belt, Tazawa made four starts for the Red Sox in 2009, and was viewed by most as a solid No. 4 starter who could be MLB ready in short order.

All of that changed when Tazawa needed Tommy John surgery before last season, however, and the young right-hander has a long way to go before he regains his status as a borderline Top 100 prospect. Anthony Ranaudo, Drake Britton, Stolmy Pimental, and Doubront are all almost certainly ahead of Tazawa on the Sox’ organizational depth chart now, and Brandon Workman, Chris Balcolm-Miller and Bowden may be as well. Plus, even if Tazawa does recover in short order, all of the Red Sox’ current rotation members except for Matsuzaka are under team control through at least 2014, meaning Tazawa will likely have to transition to a role in the bullpen if he hopes to see major league time within the next two seasons.

All five of these players may still have an impact for the Red Sox, and long-term organizational depth charts rarely remain the same from year-to-year. Injury or ineffectiveness can strike any player any time, and could give all of these prospects a chance to shine at the major league level.

But if nothing else, the odds are stacked firmly against mid-tier prospects like these, and while they don’t have to worry about the spotlight, they do face a far more daunting adversary.

Job security.