Next on my series of rotational rankings is the AL Central. Rankings are based on the upside, risk and depth of each rotation, but will not be related to the potential fantasy impact of any pitchers.
As always, feedback is appreciated.
(* signifies a new acquisition, ^ signifies rookie)
Click here for the AL East Rankings.
1) Chicago White Sox
Projected Rotation
1) Jake Peavy, RHP: Peavy enters the season as the titular ace of the White Sox’ staff, but comes with a bevy of question marks surrounding his health and ability. Peavy hasn’t had a great season since 2007, when he posted a 6.1 WAR, and he saw his fastball speed fall for the third straight season in 2010. His days as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher are likely behind him.
2) Mark Buehrle, LHP: Buehrle had somewhat of an odd year in 2010, as his advanced statistics improved while his basic statistics regressed, causing him to post an ERA above 4.00 for the first time since 2006. Buehrle was the victim of a high BABIP and low strand rate, however, and I would expect him to maintain his value as a 3-4 WAR pitcher in 2011.
3) Jon Danks, LHP: Danks seems like he’s been around forever, but will be just 26 for most of the 2011 season and didn’t become a full-time MLB starter until 2007. He’s arguably the best pitcher on the White Sox’ staff, and I expect him to improve his strikeout numbers as he enters his prime.
4) Gavin Floyd, RHP: Floyd has been a very consistent pitcher over the past three seasons, and his FIP has actually improved despite his win-loss record worsening. His strikeout rate fell while his walk rate rose in 2010, but thanks to a spike in his GB%, he was able to stay a 4+ WAR pitcher.
5) Edwin Jackson, RHP: Jackson has the reputation of a streaky pitcher, but he’s been pretty consistent over the past two seasons, posting a WAR of 3.5 in 2009 and 3.8 in 2010. Jackson will still be just 26 for most of the 2011 season, and if he increases his K/9 rate again, he could be the best No. 5 starter in the American League.
Other Options: Chris Sale^ is capable of developing into a high-strikeout No. 3 starter if moved to the rotation, but Chicago seems content keeping him in the bullpen. Jeff Marquez^ is a candidate for some starting time should injuries force the Sox to shuffled their rotation, as is Lucas Harrell^. Neither are high-upside options, but both have a shot at nearing positive WAR territory if used as starters sparingly.
Final Analysis: The White Sox have five pitchers capable of posting 4+ WAR seasons, and only one – Peavy – can be classified as unlikely to do so. Anything the White Sox get out of the former fireballer should be viewed as a positive at this point. Buehrle, Danks and Floyd are very consistent presences in the middle of the rotation, and Danks is just entering his prime. Jackson is a medium-risk, medium-upside option at the end of the rotation, but has room to improve. The White Sox don’t have great organizational starting depth unless they move Sale into the rotation, and may want to consider adding a long reliever with starting experience. Despite that shortcoming, this is still the deepest rotation in the division.
2) Minnesota Twins
Projected Rotation
1) Francisco Liriano, LHP: Liriano appeared to fully regain his health in 2010, and had an absolutely dominant season. In 191.2 innings pitched, Liriano posted a 2.66 FIP, 9.44 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9 despite being victimized by a .340 BABIP, and his slider rated as 19 wins above average. Posting 20 wins and 6+ WAR is a very real possibility for Liriano in 2011.
2) Scott Baker, RHP: Baker remained prone to the long ball in 2010, but posted a decent 3.96 FIP and upped his K/9 rate to 7.82. His biggest problem stemmed from his suddenly ineffective fastball, which fell from rating as 21.9 wins above average in 2009 to 8.9 wins below average last season. Baker didn’t lose any velocity, however, making him difficult to project for 2011.
3) Brian Duensing, RHP: Duensing put up great primary numbers in 2010, posting a 2.62 ERA, 10-3 record, and 0.76 HR/9 in 22 starts. He was hugely aided by a .276 BABIP and 81.6% strand rate, however, and is a candidate for major regression in 2011. He fits best as a fourth or fifth starter in the AL.
4) Kevin Slowey, RHP: Slowey experienced a down year in 2010, watching his strikeout, ground ball, and strand rates all fall from 2009. He has great control and will still be just 26 when the 2011 season begins, but he’ll need to boost his GB% and keep his homerun totals down if he wants to return to being a 3 WAR pitcher.
5) Nick Blackburn, RHP: Blackburn put up nearly identical stats in 2008 and 2009, and appeared well on his way to being a reliable number four starter. He took a turn for the worse last season though, posting a meager 3.80 K/9, a 5.07 FIP, and generating just 0.4 WAR in 161.1 IP.
Other Options: Glen Perkins had been primarily used as a starter throughout his career up until 2010, and will likely become the Twins’ long man out of the bullpen. Anthony Swarzak made 12 major league starts last year, and posted a WAR of exactly 0. Kyle Gibson^ is the Twins’ best prospect, and has No. 2 starter potential. He could be ready by June or July. David Bromberg^ is yet another low-risk, medium-reward arm in the Twins’ system, but could also be ready for the majors by midseason.
Final Analysis: The Twins derive most of their rotational value from depth, and have no impact arms aside from Liriano and possibly Gibson. Baker has the ability to be a solid No. 2/3 starter, but the mystery surrounding his fastball leaves me unwilling to project great things for him in 2011. Duensing, Slowey, and Blackburn are all No. 4 starter types, and Bromberg fits in with that group should he reach the majors. If Liriano posts another phenomenal campaign, Gibson progresses quickly, and Baker returns to his 2009 form, this could be the best rotation in the division. It’s more likely to be an average staff, but at least the Twins aren’t in danger of running out of viable arms.
3) Detroit Tigers
Projected Rotation
1) Justin Verlander, RHP: An ace in every sense of the word, Verlander has posted WARs of 8.3 and 6.3 over the past two seasons, and has a sub-3.00 FIP during that time as well. Verlander is a legitimate threat to win the pitching Triple Crown in 2011, and should be considered one of the frontrunners for the AL Cy Young award.
2) Max Scherzer, RHP: Scherzer got off to a rough start in Detroit last season, but was one of the better pitchers in the league after returning from a brief demotion to Triple-A. If he can improve his command slightly, don’t be surprised to see him provide 4-5 WAR and a 3.50 FIP as he enters his prime.
3) Rick Porcello, RHP: Porcello had what many considered to be a poor showing in 2010, but some regression from his .281 BABIP-aided 2009 campaign was to be expected. He’ll have to either improve his paltry 4.88 K/9 percentage or boost his GB% if he wants to post a sub-4.00 FIP in 2011, although with the Tigers’ suspect infield defense, the former may be a more attractive option.
4) Armando Galarraga, RHP: Galarraga received some national attention for his “near-perfect” game, but was a poor pitcher for most of last season. Galarraga posted 0.6 WAR and a 5.09 FIP in 144.1 innings in 2010, and will need to start missing a lot more bats if he hopes to improve, as hitters made contact with an astounding 91.9% of pitches he threw in the zone last season.
5) Phil Coke, LHP: Coke has been a reliever for his entire major league career to this point, but the Tigers plan on moving him to the rotation this spring. With a good fastball and excellent homerun rate Coke has a chance at success if he can maintain velocity into his starts, but his ceiling is probably as a fourth starter.
Other Options: Andy Oliver^ has the upside of a No. 3 starter, giving him a higher ceiling than Galarraga or Coke, and is likely to supplant one of them once he improves his command in the minors. He has a chance to win a rotation spot out of spring training. Charlie Furbush^ is another back-end option, but has pitched just 48.2 innings above Double-A. Brad Thomas is capable of spot starting, but shouldn’t be given a regular rotation spot.
Final Analysis: The Tigers have the potential to put together an excellent rotation in 2011, but the probability of reaching that potential isn’t very high. Verlander is a stud and one of the best 10 pitchers in baseball, but is the only sure thing in the Tigers’ entire rotation. Scherzer appears to be on the right track, but can’t be considered reliable yet, and Porcello needs to rebound from an ugly sophomore campaign. Coke’s upside as a starter is limited, and Galarraga is a fifth starter at best. Oliver gives the Tigers their best chance at improving their rotation internally, and would slot in nicely behind Porcello. It’s not hard to envision the Tigers having a better rotation than the Twins, but there’s an equal chance they fall apart behind Verlander.
4) Cleveland Indians
Projected Rotation
1) Fausto Carmona, RHP: Carmona had a solid-yet-unspectacular season in 2010, but that’s more than enough to make him the ace of this staff. He’s unlikely to ever return to his 2007 brilliance, but boosting his GB% to 60% and upping his K/9 to 6.00 would give him a solid chance at breaking 3 WAR for the second time in his career.
2) Justin Masterson, RHP: Masterson didn’t receive much attention in 2010, but posted the same 2.7 WAR as Carmona, and was good for a 3.93 FIP as well. He still struggles against left-handers – they’ve hit .291 against him during his career – and while he clearly has the durability to start, he might be most valuable as a high-leverage, multiple-inning reliever.
3) Carlos Carrasco, RHP: Carrasco was once viewed as a top prospect and future ace, but is clearly better suited for the middle of a major league rotation. He’ll be just 24 when the 2011 season begins, and while he’s likely to experience a few hiccups in his first full major league season, 2.5-3.5 WAR and a 4.00 FIP are within his reach.
4) Mitch Talbot, RHP: Tablot was a surprise candidate for AL Rookie of the Year up through June, but his absurdly low strikeout and high contact rates caught up with him, and he finished the year posting a 4.48 FIP and just 1.4 WAR. Talbot retains some value in his ability to provide bulk innings at slightly above replacement level, but he’s a number five starter at best.
5) Josh Tomlin, RHP: Tomlin is by no means a sure bet to make the Indians’ rotation out of spring training, but may have the inside track seeing as he made 12 major league starts last season. With a K/9 of just 5.30 and GB% of 28.4%, his ceiling is very limited, and if he provides even 1 WAR, the Indians should look at it as a victory.
Other Options: Aaron Laffey has experience as a starter and is left-handed, but experienced success as a reliever last season. David Huff is another lefty with starting experience and has more upside than Talbot or Tomlin, but had a down year in 2010. Jeanmar Gomez made 11 starts for the Tribe last season and has a solid chance at making the rotation out of spring training. Hector Rondon^ and Zach McAllister^ are two prospects with a good shot at seeing MLB time in 2011, but neither is likely to begin the season in the majors.
Final Analysis: The Indians have a rotation devoid of much upside or stability, and would probably have the worst rotation in any division not also containing the Kansas City Royals. Carmona and Masterson are more mid-rotation starters than aces, but will command the top spots in the Tribe’s rotation. Carrasco has No. 3 starter potential as well, but is far from a sure thing. Talbot and Tomlin look like early favorites to win starting jobs based on 2010, but are in the same category as Huff, Laffey and Gomez, and all have a chance at breaking the rotation out of spring training. Rondon and McAllister are both probably half a season away, and while the former has some upside, McAllister is more of a back-end option.
5) Kansas City Royals
Projected Rotations
1) Luke Hochevar, RHP: Hochevar was the number one pick in the 2006 draft, and while it’s abundantly clear that he’s never going to be an ace, he’s at least developing into a mid-rotation starter. It would be nice to see him lower his walk rate to his 2009 level, but as long as he avoids overusing his well below-average fastball, he’s a solid candidate to post 2 WAR.
2) Kyle Davies, RHP: Davies was considered by most to be a non-tender candidate, but posted 2 WAR while providing 183.2 innings for the Royals last season. If he can continue to lower his walk rate and improve his above average cutter, he’s capable of becoming a 3 WAR pitcher, which would make him the ace of the Royals’ rotation.
3) Vin Mazzaro, RHP*: Mazzaro was acquired from the Athletics in exchange for David DeJesus earlier this offseason, and goes from being the likely fifth starter in Oakland to the No. 3 option in Kansas City. He’s posted just 0.7 WAR in 213.2 MLB innings, and he’s unlikely to improve until he shows the same good control he did in the minors.
4) Sean O’Sullivan, RHP: O’Sullivan is more of an organizational arm than a qualified MLB starter, but will likely act as a rotational placeholder for the Royals until some of their prospects are major league ready. He’ll need to limit his HR rate and start missing more bats if he wants to break into positive WAR territory.
5) Robinson Tejeda, RHP: Tejada has started just seven games over the past three seasons and didn’t start at all in 2010, but is one of the few players capable of transitioning to the rotation in the Royals’ organization. He’ll need to dramatically improve his command and first-strike percentage if he’s to experience success as a starter.
Other Options: Gil Meche provided 11 WAR for the Royals as a starter from 2007-2009, but is being forced to the bullpen thanks to shoulder injuries. Former Tiger Zach Miner* was signed to a minor league contract and will have a shot at the rotation if healthy, but hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009 and hasn't started consistently since 2008. Kevin Pucetas^ is an uninspiring starting option, but is just 26 years old has 54 Triple-A starts under his belt. Jeremy Jeffrees*^ is universally believed to have a better chance at success as a reliever than a starter, but the Royals may opt to try him in the rotation.
Final Analysis: The Royals probably have the worst rotation in the majors as of January, and while help is one the way in the form of Mike Montgomery^, Danny Duffy^, John Lamb^, Jake Odorizzi*^, Tim Melville^, and more, they won’t arrive in time to salvage the 2011 staff. Hochevar and Davies are the only pitchers who would have a shot at cracking most rotations, but both profile as number four or five starters. Mazzaro had a solid minor league career and could become a passable back-of-the-rotation starter, but will need to improve his command. O’Sullivan, Pucetas and Miner are nothing more than organizational arms, and while Tejeda and Jeffrees fit better in the bullpen, both may be pressed into starting duties. The Royals will likely acquire another low-cost starter or two before the season begins, but 2011 will be an ugly year for pitchers in Kansas City.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
Ranking the Rotations: The American League East
For my first blog post and first series, I'll examine and rank the rotations in each division. Rankings will be based on the upside, risk and depth of each rotation, but will not be related to the potential fantasy impact of any pitchers.
As always, feedback is appreciated.
(* signifies a new acquisition, ^ signifies rookie)
First up is the American League East.
1) Boston Red Sox
Projected Rotation
1) Jon Lester, LHP: Lester is a true ace and one of the best 10-15 pitchers in baseball, and is just entering his prime at age 27. With a flawless track record, a work-horse build and great stuff, there's no reason not to expect Lester to contend for the Cy Young award next season.
2) Clay Buchholz, RHP: Buchholz posted a phenomenal 2.33 ERA last season, but was helped by a .265 BABIP. His 3.61 FIP is closer to what he should post for an ERA in 2011, but Buchholz is still an excellent No.2 pitcher, and he should see an increase in strikeouts next season as well.
3) Josh Beckett, RHP: Beckett is likely the key for determining whether the Sox' rotation is outstanding or just good in 2011. He was hampered by injuries all of last season, and threw just 127.2 innings, many of them unproductive. That being said, Beckett still has the upside of a No. 2 starter, and, for whatever it's worth, has a history of producing every other year.
4) John Lackey, RHP: Lackey didn't put up sexy numbers in 2010, but largely did what he's paid to do -- throw a lot of innings. Lackey's days of being an ace are over, but if he can cut down on his walks, look for him to win 16 games and post an ERA in the high threes. His 2010 BABIP of .323 should fall a little in 2011 as well.
5) Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP: Matsuzaka has long drawn the ire of Red Sox nation, but he could easily be the best No. 5 starter in baseball. Dice-K will continue to aggravate fans and teammates alike with his reluctance to attack hitters and his high walk rates, by if he can throw 180 innings with a 4.25 ERA, the Sox will be thrilled.
Other Options: The Red Sox have plenty of options when one of their starters inevitably goes down, with Tim Wakefield the likely option for spot starts and Felix Doubront^ the likely call-up if a starter needs to spend a prolonged period on the DL. Michael Bowden may be converted to a full-time reliever, and Junichi Tazawa is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, but both may be considered in a pinch.
Final Analysis: The Red Sox enter the 2011 season with a medium-risk, high-reward rotation. All five of their projected starters are capable of winning 15 games, but two of them -- Beckett and Matsuzaka -- enter the year with serious question marks. Lester is the Sox' only "true ace," but Buchholz, Beckett and Lackey all have No. 2 starter potential, and Matsuzaka is capable of being a 3 -3.5 WAR pitcher himself. The Sox have solid depth should one of their starters go down with injury, and also have enough options that they can consider trading Matsuzaka should interest in his services arise. All things considered, the Red Sox are in contention for best rotation in the American League.
2) Tampa Bay Rays
Projected Rotation
1) David Price, LHP: Price came into his own in 2010, and lived up to the billing he received when the Rays took him first overall in the 2008 draft. One of the best left-handed pitchers in the game, Price should only get better as he enters his prime, and is arguably the most talented pitcher in the division. An ace in every sense of the word.
2) James Shields, RHP: Shields’ 2010 season was the worst of his career since his inaugural campaign in 2006, but he was a victim of terrible luck, and is a solid rebound candidate for 2011. Shields is a medium-upside but fairly reliable No. 2 starter, and is capable of winning 15 games while posting a sub-4.25 ERA next season.
3) Matt Garza, RHP: Garza saw his FIP rise for the third straight season in 2010, up from 4.14 in his career-best 2008 campaign to 4.42 last season. He’s still a playoff-tested, solid mid-rotation pitcher, and will be the subject of trade rumors all season if the Rays fall out of the playoff race.
4) Wade Davis, RHP: Davis had a solid rookie season in 2010, but advance statistics suggest that he had good luck, and that his 4.07 ERA should have been much closer to 5.00. Davis is still young and improving, and should be a solid No. 3 starter for the Rays for years to come.
5) Jeremy Hellickson^, RHP: Hellickson should start the season in the Rays’ rotation if they plan to contend next season, as he has the most ability of anyone on the staff except for Price. Hellickson might get off to a rocky start in the loaded AL east, but he has the stuff to profile in the same category as fellow division youngsters Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes.
Other Options: The Rays don’t have quite as much organizational pitching depth as they once did, but Jeff Niemann would be a starter on many teams and has a decent shot at beating Davis or Hellickson out of spring training. He’s unexciting, but a dependable No. 4 starter. Andy Sonnanstine would be a poor option if forced to make a large number of starts, but is a solid spot starter. Both may be targeted in trades.
Final Analysis: The Rays have a deep and talented rotation, with the potential to field four No. 2 or 3 caliber pitchers behind the supremely talented Price. Garza appears to be on a slightly downward track, but Shields should rebound from an unlucky 2010, and Davis and Hellickson figure to improve with age as well. The Rays may be tempted to start the season with Hellickson in Triple-A, but with the absences of Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett, they’re going to need to rely on their pitching if they hope to remain competitive in 2011. If Hellickson progresses quickly, this could be one of the deepest rotations in baseball.
3) Toronto Blue Jays
Projected Rotation
1) Ricky Romero, LHP: Romero isn’t an ideal ace – he fits better as a No. 2 starter – but is the most talented member of the young Jays rotation. Romero had the best season of his young career in 2010, improving his FIP, strikeout, walk, and homerun rates from 2009. If he can further build on such progress, he could make a run at an All-Star appearance in 2011.
2) Brandon Morrow, RHP: Morrow finally translated his physical talent into production in 2010, and was one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League last season. He’s the definition of a high-risk, high-reward pitcher headed into 2011, but should be viewed as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher if he keeps his walk rate down and builds on his success.
3) Brett Cecil, LHP: Cecil received a lot of hype as a prospect, but is more likely to become a mid-rotation starter than an ace at the MLB level. That being said, Cecil’s excellent control (2.81 BB/9 rate in 2010) should allow him to experience success even in the AL East, and he does bring upside to the Jays’ rotation.
4) Kyle Drabek^, RHP: Drabek should enter the season as the Jays’ fourth starter, but could be their second-best option by season’s end. He’s one of the best pitching prospects Toronto has had in their system in recent years, and although I don’t see him becoming a legitimate ace, he has the ceiling of a high-strikeout No.2 starter.
5) Mark Rzepczynski, RHP: Rzepczynski is a serviceable fifth starter, but doesn’t offer much more than a chance at providing league-average innings in bulk. He’ll serve a capable placeholder for the Jays, who are likely hoping that another more talented arm will enter the rotation by June or July.
Other Options: The Jays have excellent rotation depth, with fill-in arms ready to contribute in a pinch, and some high-upside arms who could contribute by midseason. Prospect Zach Stewart^ has No. 3 starter potential, and Dustin McGowan has proven his worth as a capable mid-rotation pitcher in the past. If neither proves ready to contribute in 2011, Jesse Litsch and Brad Mills could provide innings at the back of the rotation, although both are likely better off in bullpen roles.
Final Analysis: The Red Sox, Rays, and even the Yankees receive more credit for the high-profile names in their rotation, but the Jays have the potential to compile an excellent rotation in 2011. Romero, Morrow and Drabek all have No. 2 starter potential, and have the type of high-strikeout capability that will allow them to survive the AL East. Nearly every pitcher in this rotation comes with significant question marks as well though -- especially the volatile Morrow and the inexperienced Drabek and Cecil. Overall, the Jays have of a high-risk, high-reward rotation, but if all goes well, they could have quite a talented staff.
4) New York Yankees
Projected Rotation
1) C.C. Sabathia, LHP: Sabathia’s brilliance in 2010 was somewhat lost with the emergence of fellow dominant divisional lefties Jon Lester and David Price, but the Yankees’ ace is still one of the best, most consistent pitchers in baseball. Expect another 230+ innings, and another 5+ WAR.
2) Phil Hughes, RHP: Hughes’ 2010 season was deceiving in that he established himself as a burgeoning star, but still only posted 2.5 WAR and a 4.25 FIP. He has the stuff to become a No. 2 starter and is clearly improving, but shouldn’t yet be looked upon as one of the AL’s premier pitchers.
3) A.J. Burnett, RHP: Burnett had one of the worst years of his up-and-down career in 2010, posting his highest FIP since 2003. Burnett saw his strikeout rate and LOB% fall while losing a full mile per hour on his fastball and gaining over half a mile per hour on his changeup last season, suggesting his stuff may be in decline.
4) Ivan Nova^, RHP: Nova was impressive but unspectacular when pressed into starting duty for the Yankees last season, posting a 4.36 in 42 innings pitched. Despite an above-average curveball, Nova never posted high strikeout numbers in the minors, meaning he’ll need to pitch to contact and rely on his defense to have success in the majors.
5) Sergio Mitre, RHP: Mitre provides little upside, but has experience as a major league starter, and is the Yankees’ most probable in-house candidate for the fifth starters spot. It’s highly unlikely that Mitre starts more than around 15 games for New York, but he’s at least capable of posting a positive WAR while providing bulk innings.
Other Options: The Yankees have help on the way in the form of the “Killer B’s” – Andrew Brackman^, Manny Banuelos^ and Dellin Betances^ – but while all are moderately close to MLB ready, none has pitched above double-A. Hector Noesi^ is somewhat of a darkhorse rotation candidate for the Yankees, but has more upside than Nova or Mitre. Romulo Sanchez likely becomes the spot-starter for the Yankees, as he has some experience as a starter in the minors. Joba Chamberlain could be converted back to a starter, but Brian Cashman has already ruled such a move out.
Final Analysis: The Yankees have a strong front of the rotation with Sabathia and Hughes, but have serious question marks throughout the rest of their staff. Burnett is still capable of occasional brilliance but seems to be on the downside of his career, and Mitre profiles better as a spot starter than a rotation staple. Nova has the least upside of any of the youngsters in the Yankees’ organization, but is the closest to MLB-ready. Noesi will likely be overlooked headed into spring training, but could end up as the Yankees’ fourth starter despite his lack of experience. Unless Andy Pettitte decides to pitch another year, the Yankees will enter 2011 with one of the shallowest rotations of any likely contender in the American League.
5) Baltimore Orioles
Projected Rotation
1) Jeremy Guthrie, RHP: Guthrie is the Orioles’ ace only in name, and pitches above his stuff thanks to help throughout his career from a low BABIP and high strand rate. He fits better as a No. 4 starter in the AL, but is likely to get the ball for the Orioles on opening day, and has the potential to be a 2.5 WAR pitcher.
2) Brian Matusz, LHP: Matusz is the ace of the Orioles’ rotation in terms of stuff and potential. After experiencing success in April, Matusz struggled for much of the middle of his first professional campaign, but posted a 3.38 FIP in August, and a 3.24 FIP in September. Given his minor league track record and stuff, he’s capable of pitching at that level all season.
3) Jake Arrieta, RHP: Arrieta has the potential to be a solid major league No. 3 starter, posting high walk rates all through his minor league career, but puting up big K numbers as well. Arrieta’s K/9 fell to 4.66 in 100.1 MLB innings in 2010 though, and he’ll need to significantly boost that number if he plans to be successful in 2011.
4) Brad Bergesen, RHP: Bergesen is often overlooked in a rotation filled with former high-profile prospects, but will be just 25 for most of the 2011 season, and has the potential to be a quality back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Bergesen may be better suited to long relief, but may be capable of supporting a 4.25 FIP if he misses a few more bats.
5) Chris Tillman, RHP: Tillman has yet to translate his ability into performance at the major league level, but has excelled at Triple-A, and has the best pure stuff of anyone on the Orioles’ staff save for Matusz. 2011 will likely determine whether Tillman will remain a part of the Orioles’ future or attempt to jumpstart his career with a different organization.
Other Options: Left-handed sinkerball prospect Zach Britton will likely be ready for MLB action by July, with Bergesen the most likely candidate for demotion to the bullpen if all five O’s starters remain healthy and fairly productive. Should injury necessitate a change before Britton is ready, Baltimore could turn to journeyman Rick VandenHurk, or give former top prospect Troy Patton a look. Brandon Erbe^ is also a possibility, though he fits better in the pen and is not yet ready for the majors.
Final Analysis: The Orioles rotation is full of promise – especially once Britton is on the scene – but could be in for a long year in 2011. Matusz is primed to improve on an up-and-down rookie campaign, but Arrieta and Tillman are likely to face their lumps as first time full-season MLB starters. Guthrie is serviceable, but could be used as trade bait, and Bergesen doesn’t miss enough bats to profile as anything other than a fifth starter. The Orioles also lack organizational depth unless Patton remarkably returns to his pre-injury form. These pitchers may look great in a rotation together by 2013, but 2011 is likely to yield overall poor results from what is a very young staff.
As always, feedback is appreciated.
(* signifies a new acquisition, ^ signifies rookie)
First up is the American League East.
1) Boston Red Sox
Projected Rotation
1) Jon Lester, LHP: Lester is a true ace and one of the best 10-15 pitchers in baseball, and is just entering his prime at age 27. With a flawless track record, a work-horse build and great stuff, there's no reason not to expect Lester to contend for the Cy Young award next season.
2) Clay Buchholz, RHP: Buchholz posted a phenomenal 2.33 ERA last season, but was helped by a .265 BABIP. His 3.61 FIP is closer to what he should post for an ERA in 2011, but Buchholz is still an excellent No.2 pitcher, and he should see an increase in strikeouts next season as well.
3) Josh Beckett, RHP: Beckett is likely the key for determining whether the Sox' rotation is outstanding or just good in 2011. He was hampered by injuries all of last season, and threw just 127.2 innings, many of them unproductive. That being said, Beckett still has the upside of a No. 2 starter, and, for whatever it's worth, has a history of producing every other year.
4) John Lackey, RHP: Lackey didn't put up sexy numbers in 2010, but largely did what he's paid to do -- throw a lot of innings. Lackey's days of being an ace are over, but if he can cut down on his walks, look for him to win 16 games and post an ERA in the high threes. His 2010 BABIP of .323 should fall a little in 2011 as well.
5) Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP: Matsuzaka has long drawn the ire of Red Sox nation, but he could easily be the best No. 5 starter in baseball. Dice-K will continue to aggravate fans and teammates alike with his reluctance to attack hitters and his high walk rates, by if he can throw 180 innings with a 4.25 ERA, the Sox will be thrilled.
Other Options: The Red Sox have plenty of options when one of their starters inevitably goes down, with Tim Wakefield the likely option for spot starts and Felix Doubront^ the likely call-up if a starter needs to spend a prolonged period on the DL. Michael Bowden may be converted to a full-time reliever, and Junichi Tazawa is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, but both may be considered in a pinch.
Final Analysis: The Red Sox enter the 2011 season with a medium-risk, high-reward rotation. All five of their projected starters are capable of winning 15 games, but two of them -- Beckett and Matsuzaka -- enter the year with serious question marks. Lester is the Sox' only "true ace," but Buchholz, Beckett and Lackey all have No. 2 starter potential, and Matsuzaka is capable of being a 3 -3.5 WAR pitcher himself. The Sox have solid depth should one of their starters go down with injury, and also have enough options that they can consider trading Matsuzaka should interest in his services arise. All things considered, the Red Sox are in contention for best rotation in the American League.
2) Tampa Bay Rays
Projected Rotation
1) David Price, LHP: Price came into his own in 2010, and lived up to the billing he received when the Rays took him first overall in the 2008 draft. One of the best left-handed pitchers in the game, Price should only get better as he enters his prime, and is arguably the most talented pitcher in the division. An ace in every sense of the word.
2) James Shields, RHP: Shields’ 2010 season was the worst of his career since his inaugural campaign in 2006, but he was a victim of terrible luck, and is a solid rebound candidate for 2011. Shields is a medium-upside but fairly reliable No. 2 starter, and is capable of winning 15 games while posting a sub-4.25 ERA next season.
3) Matt Garza, RHP: Garza saw his FIP rise for the third straight season in 2010, up from 4.14 in his career-best 2008 campaign to 4.42 last season. He’s still a playoff-tested, solid mid-rotation pitcher, and will be the subject of trade rumors all season if the Rays fall out of the playoff race.
4) Wade Davis, RHP: Davis had a solid rookie season in 2010, but advance statistics suggest that he had good luck, and that his 4.07 ERA should have been much closer to 5.00. Davis is still young and improving, and should be a solid No. 3 starter for the Rays for years to come.
5) Jeremy Hellickson^, RHP: Hellickson should start the season in the Rays’ rotation if they plan to contend next season, as he has the most ability of anyone on the staff except for Price. Hellickson might get off to a rocky start in the loaded AL east, but he has the stuff to profile in the same category as fellow division youngsters Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes.
Other Options: The Rays don’t have quite as much organizational pitching depth as they once did, but Jeff Niemann would be a starter on many teams and has a decent shot at beating Davis or Hellickson out of spring training. He’s unexciting, but a dependable No. 4 starter. Andy Sonnanstine would be a poor option if forced to make a large number of starts, but is a solid spot starter. Both may be targeted in trades.
Final Analysis: The Rays have a deep and talented rotation, with the potential to field four No. 2 or 3 caliber pitchers behind the supremely talented Price. Garza appears to be on a slightly downward track, but Shields should rebound from an unlucky 2010, and Davis and Hellickson figure to improve with age as well. The Rays may be tempted to start the season with Hellickson in Triple-A, but with the absences of Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett, they’re going to need to rely on their pitching if they hope to remain competitive in 2011. If Hellickson progresses quickly, this could be one of the deepest rotations in baseball.
3) Toronto Blue Jays
Projected Rotation
1) Ricky Romero, LHP: Romero isn’t an ideal ace – he fits better as a No. 2 starter – but is the most talented member of the young Jays rotation. Romero had the best season of his young career in 2010, improving his FIP, strikeout, walk, and homerun rates from 2009. If he can further build on such progress, he could make a run at an All-Star appearance in 2011.
2) Brandon Morrow, RHP: Morrow finally translated his physical talent into production in 2010, and was one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League last season. He’s the definition of a high-risk, high-reward pitcher headed into 2011, but should be viewed as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher if he keeps his walk rate down and builds on his success.
3) Brett Cecil, LHP: Cecil received a lot of hype as a prospect, but is more likely to become a mid-rotation starter than an ace at the MLB level. That being said, Cecil’s excellent control (2.81 BB/9 rate in 2010) should allow him to experience success even in the AL East, and he does bring upside to the Jays’ rotation.
4) Kyle Drabek^, RHP: Drabek should enter the season as the Jays’ fourth starter, but could be their second-best option by season’s end. He’s one of the best pitching prospects Toronto has had in their system in recent years, and although I don’t see him becoming a legitimate ace, he has the ceiling of a high-strikeout No.2 starter.
5) Mark Rzepczynski, RHP: Rzepczynski is a serviceable fifth starter, but doesn’t offer much more than a chance at providing league-average innings in bulk. He’ll serve a capable placeholder for the Jays, who are likely hoping that another more talented arm will enter the rotation by June or July.
Other Options: The Jays have excellent rotation depth, with fill-in arms ready to contribute in a pinch, and some high-upside arms who could contribute by midseason. Prospect Zach Stewart^ has No. 3 starter potential, and Dustin McGowan has proven his worth as a capable mid-rotation pitcher in the past. If neither proves ready to contribute in 2011, Jesse Litsch and Brad Mills could provide innings at the back of the rotation, although both are likely better off in bullpen roles.
Final Analysis: The Red Sox, Rays, and even the Yankees receive more credit for the high-profile names in their rotation, but the Jays have the potential to compile an excellent rotation in 2011. Romero, Morrow and Drabek all have No. 2 starter potential, and have the type of high-strikeout capability that will allow them to survive the AL East. Nearly every pitcher in this rotation comes with significant question marks as well though -- especially the volatile Morrow and the inexperienced Drabek and Cecil. Overall, the Jays have of a high-risk, high-reward rotation, but if all goes well, they could have quite a talented staff.
4) New York Yankees
Projected Rotation
1) C.C. Sabathia, LHP: Sabathia’s brilliance in 2010 was somewhat lost with the emergence of fellow dominant divisional lefties Jon Lester and David Price, but the Yankees’ ace is still one of the best, most consistent pitchers in baseball. Expect another 230+ innings, and another 5+ WAR.
2) Phil Hughes, RHP: Hughes’ 2010 season was deceiving in that he established himself as a burgeoning star, but still only posted 2.5 WAR and a 4.25 FIP. He has the stuff to become a No. 2 starter and is clearly improving, but shouldn’t yet be looked upon as one of the AL’s premier pitchers.
3) A.J. Burnett, RHP: Burnett had one of the worst years of his up-and-down career in 2010, posting his highest FIP since 2003. Burnett saw his strikeout rate and LOB% fall while losing a full mile per hour on his fastball and gaining over half a mile per hour on his changeup last season, suggesting his stuff may be in decline.
4) Ivan Nova^, RHP: Nova was impressive but unspectacular when pressed into starting duty for the Yankees last season, posting a 4.36 in 42 innings pitched. Despite an above-average curveball, Nova never posted high strikeout numbers in the minors, meaning he’ll need to pitch to contact and rely on his defense to have success in the majors.
5) Sergio Mitre, RHP: Mitre provides little upside, but has experience as a major league starter, and is the Yankees’ most probable in-house candidate for the fifth starters spot. It’s highly unlikely that Mitre starts more than around 15 games for New York, but he’s at least capable of posting a positive WAR while providing bulk innings.
Other Options: The Yankees have help on the way in the form of the “Killer B’s” – Andrew Brackman^, Manny Banuelos^ and Dellin Betances^ – but while all are moderately close to MLB ready, none has pitched above double-A. Hector Noesi^ is somewhat of a darkhorse rotation candidate for the Yankees, but has more upside than Nova or Mitre. Romulo Sanchez likely becomes the spot-starter for the Yankees, as he has some experience as a starter in the minors. Joba Chamberlain could be converted back to a starter, but Brian Cashman has already ruled such a move out.
Final Analysis: The Yankees have a strong front of the rotation with Sabathia and Hughes, but have serious question marks throughout the rest of their staff. Burnett is still capable of occasional brilliance but seems to be on the downside of his career, and Mitre profiles better as a spot starter than a rotation staple. Nova has the least upside of any of the youngsters in the Yankees’ organization, but is the closest to MLB-ready. Noesi will likely be overlooked headed into spring training, but could end up as the Yankees’ fourth starter despite his lack of experience. Unless Andy Pettitte decides to pitch another year, the Yankees will enter 2011 with one of the shallowest rotations of any likely contender in the American League.
5) Baltimore Orioles
Projected Rotation
1) Jeremy Guthrie, RHP: Guthrie is the Orioles’ ace only in name, and pitches above his stuff thanks to help throughout his career from a low BABIP and high strand rate. He fits better as a No. 4 starter in the AL, but is likely to get the ball for the Orioles on opening day, and has the potential to be a 2.5 WAR pitcher.
2) Brian Matusz, LHP: Matusz is the ace of the Orioles’ rotation in terms of stuff and potential. After experiencing success in April, Matusz struggled for much of the middle of his first professional campaign, but posted a 3.38 FIP in August, and a 3.24 FIP in September. Given his minor league track record and stuff, he’s capable of pitching at that level all season.
3) Jake Arrieta, RHP: Arrieta has the potential to be a solid major league No. 3 starter, posting high walk rates all through his minor league career, but puting up big K numbers as well. Arrieta’s K/9 fell to 4.66 in 100.1 MLB innings in 2010 though, and he’ll need to significantly boost that number if he plans to be successful in 2011.
4) Brad Bergesen, RHP: Bergesen is often overlooked in a rotation filled with former high-profile prospects, but will be just 25 for most of the 2011 season, and has the potential to be a quality back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Bergesen may be better suited to long relief, but may be capable of supporting a 4.25 FIP if he misses a few more bats.
5) Chris Tillman, RHP: Tillman has yet to translate his ability into performance at the major league level, but has excelled at Triple-A, and has the best pure stuff of anyone on the Orioles’ staff save for Matusz. 2011 will likely determine whether Tillman will remain a part of the Orioles’ future or attempt to jumpstart his career with a different organization.
Other Options: Left-handed sinkerball prospect Zach Britton will likely be ready for MLB action by July, with Bergesen the most likely candidate for demotion to the bullpen if all five O’s starters remain healthy and fairly productive. Should injury necessitate a change before Britton is ready, Baltimore could turn to journeyman Rick VandenHurk, or give former top prospect Troy Patton a look. Brandon Erbe^ is also a possibility, though he fits better in the pen and is not yet ready for the majors.
Final Analysis: The Orioles rotation is full of promise – especially once Britton is on the scene – but could be in for a long year in 2011. Matusz is primed to improve on an up-and-down rookie campaign, but Arrieta and Tillman are likely to face their lumps as first time full-season MLB starters. Guthrie is serviceable, but could be used as trade bait, and Bergesen doesn’t miss enough bats to profile as anything other than a fifth starter. The Orioles also lack organizational depth unless Patton remarkably returns to his pre-injury form. These pitchers may look great in a rotation together by 2013, but 2011 is likely to yield overall poor results from what is a very young staff.
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