For my first blog post and first series, I'll examine and rank the rotations in each division. Rankings will be based on the upside, risk and depth of each rotation, but will not be related to the potential fantasy impact of any pitchers.
As always, feedback is appreciated.
(* signifies a new acquisition, ^ signifies rookie)
First up is the American League East.
1) Boston Red Sox
Projected Rotation
1) Jon Lester, LHP: Lester is a true ace and one of the best 10-15 pitchers in baseball, and is just entering his prime at age 27. With a flawless track record, a work-horse build and great stuff, there's no reason not to expect Lester to contend for the Cy Young award next season.
2) Clay Buchholz, RHP: Buchholz posted a phenomenal 2.33 ERA last season, but was helped by a .265 BABIP. His 3.61 FIP is closer to what he should post for an ERA in 2011, but Buchholz is still an excellent No.2 pitcher, and he should see an increase in strikeouts next season as well.
3) Josh Beckett, RHP: Beckett is likely the key for determining whether the Sox' rotation is outstanding or just good in 2011. He was hampered by injuries all of last season, and threw just 127.2 innings, many of them unproductive. That being said, Beckett still has the upside of a No. 2 starter, and, for whatever it's worth, has a history of producing every other year.
4) John Lackey, RHP: Lackey didn't put up sexy numbers in 2010, but largely did what he's paid to do -- throw a lot of innings. Lackey's days of being an ace are over, but if he can cut down on his walks, look for him to win 16 games and post an ERA in the high threes. His 2010 BABIP of .323 should fall a little in 2011 as well.
5) Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP: Matsuzaka has long drawn the ire of Red Sox nation, but he could easily be the best No. 5 starter in baseball. Dice-K will continue to aggravate fans and teammates alike with his reluctance to attack hitters and his high walk rates, by if he can throw 180 innings with a 4.25 ERA, the Sox will be thrilled.
Other Options: The Red Sox have plenty of options when one of their starters inevitably goes down, with Tim Wakefield the likely option for spot starts and Felix Doubront^ the likely call-up if a starter needs to spend a prolonged period on the DL. Michael Bowden may be converted to a full-time reliever, and Junichi Tazawa is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, but both may be considered in a pinch.
Final Analysis: The Red Sox enter the 2011 season with a medium-risk, high-reward rotation. All five of their projected starters are capable of winning 15 games, but two of them -- Beckett and Matsuzaka -- enter the year with serious question marks. Lester is the Sox' only "true ace," but Buchholz, Beckett and Lackey all have No. 2 starter potential, and Matsuzaka is capable of being a 3 -3.5 WAR pitcher himself. The Sox have solid depth should one of their starters go down with injury, and also have enough options that they can consider trading Matsuzaka should interest in his services arise. All things considered, the Red Sox are in contention for best rotation in the American League.
2) Tampa Bay Rays
Projected Rotation
1) David Price, LHP: Price came into his own in 2010, and lived up to the billing he received when the Rays took him first overall in the 2008 draft. One of the best left-handed pitchers in the game, Price should only get better as he enters his prime, and is arguably the most talented pitcher in the division. An ace in every sense of the word.
2) James Shields, RHP: Shields’ 2010 season was the worst of his career since his inaugural campaign in 2006, but he was a victim of terrible luck, and is a solid rebound candidate for 2011. Shields is a medium-upside but fairly reliable No. 2 starter, and is capable of winning 15 games while posting a sub-4.25 ERA next season.
3) Matt Garza, RHP: Garza saw his FIP rise for the third straight season in 2010, up from 4.14 in his career-best 2008 campaign to 4.42 last season. He’s still a playoff-tested, solid mid-rotation pitcher, and will be the subject of trade rumors all season if the Rays fall out of the playoff race.
4) Wade Davis, RHP: Davis had a solid rookie season in 2010, but advance statistics suggest that he had good luck, and that his 4.07 ERA should have been much closer to 5.00. Davis is still young and improving, and should be a solid No. 3 starter for the Rays for years to come.
5) Jeremy Hellickson^, RHP: Hellickson should start the season in the Rays’ rotation if they plan to contend next season, as he has the most ability of anyone on the staff except for Price. Hellickson might get off to a rocky start in the loaded AL east, but he has the stuff to profile in the same category as fellow division youngsters Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes.
Other Options: The Rays don’t have quite as much organizational pitching depth as they once did, but Jeff Niemann would be a starter on many teams and has a decent shot at beating Davis or Hellickson out of spring training. He’s unexciting, but a dependable No. 4 starter. Andy Sonnanstine would be a poor option if forced to make a large number of starts, but is a solid spot starter. Both may be targeted in trades.
Final Analysis: The Rays have a deep and talented rotation, with the potential to field four No. 2 or 3 caliber pitchers behind the supremely talented Price. Garza appears to be on a slightly downward track, but Shields should rebound from an unlucky 2010, and Davis and Hellickson figure to improve with age as well. The Rays may be tempted to start the season with Hellickson in Triple-A, but with the absences of Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett, they’re going to need to rely on their pitching if they hope to remain competitive in 2011. If Hellickson progresses quickly, this could be one of the deepest rotations in baseball.
3) Toronto Blue Jays
Projected Rotation
1) Ricky Romero, LHP: Romero isn’t an ideal ace – he fits better as a No. 2 starter – but is the most talented member of the young Jays rotation. Romero had the best season of his young career in 2010, improving his FIP, strikeout, walk, and homerun rates from 2009. If he can further build on such progress, he could make a run at an All-Star appearance in 2011.
2) Brandon Morrow, RHP: Morrow finally translated his physical talent into production in 2010, and was one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League last season. He’s the definition of a high-risk, high-reward pitcher headed into 2011, but should be viewed as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher if he keeps his walk rate down and builds on his success.
3) Brett Cecil, LHP: Cecil received a lot of hype as a prospect, but is more likely to become a mid-rotation starter than an ace at the MLB level. That being said, Cecil’s excellent control (2.81 BB/9 rate in 2010) should allow him to experience success even in the AL East, and he does bring upside to the Jays’ rotation.
4) Kyle Drabek^, RHP: Drabek should enter the season as the Jays’ fourth starter, but could be their second-best option by season’s end. He’s one of the best pitching prospects Toronto has had in their system in recent years, and although I don’t see him becoming a legitimate ace, he has the ceiling of a high-strikeout No.2 starter.
5) Mark Rzepczynski, RHP: Rzepczynski is a serviceable fifth starter, but doesn’t offer much more than a chance at providing league-average innings in bulk. He’ll serve a capable placeholder for the Jays, who are likely hoping that another more talented arm will enter the rotation by June or July.
Other Options: The Jays have excellent rotation depth, with fill-in arms ready to contribute in a pinch, and some high-upside arms who could contribute by midseason. Prospect Zach Stewart^ has No. 3 starter potential, and Dustin McGowan has proven his worth as a capable mid-rotation pitcher in the past. If neither proves ready to contribute in 2011, Jesse Litsch and Brad Mills could provide innings at the back of the rotation, although both are likely better off in bullpen roles.
Final Analysis: The Red Sox, Rays, and even the Yankees receive more credit for the high-profile names in their rotation, but the Jays have the potential to compile an excellent rotation in 2011. Romero, Morrow and Drabek all have No. 2 starter potential, and have the type of high-strikeout capability that will allow them to survive the AL East. Nearly every pitcher in this rotation comes with significant question marks as well though -- especially the volatile Morrow and the inexperienced Drabek and Cecil. Overall, the Jays have of a high-risk, high-reward rotation, but if all goes well, they could have quite a talented staff.
4) New York Yankees
Projected Rotation
1) C.C. Sabathia, LHP: Sabathia’s brilliance in 2010 was somewhat lost with the emergence of fellow dominant divisional lefties Jon Lester and David Price, but the Yankees’ ace is still one of the best, most consistent pitchers in baseball. Expect another 230+ innings, and another 5+ WAR.
2) Phil Hughes, RHP: Hughes’ 2010 season was deceiving in that he established himself as a burgeoning star, but still only posted 2.5 WAR and a 4.25 FIP. He has the stuff to become a No. 2 starter and is clearly improving, but shouldn’t yet be looked upon as one of the AL’s premier pitchers.
3) A.J. Burnett, RHP: Burnett had one of the worst years of his up-and-down career in 2010, posting his highest FIP since 2003. Burnett saw his strikeout rate and LOB% fall while losing a full mile per hour on his fastball and gaining over half a mile per hour on his changeup last season, suggesting his stuff may be in decline.
4) Ivan Nova^, RHP: Nova was impressive but unspectacular when pressed into starting duty for the Yankees last season, posting a 4.36 in 42 innings pitched. Despite an above-average curveball, Nova never posted high strikeout numbers in the minors, meaning he’ll need to pitch to contact and rely on his defense to have success in the majors.
5) Sergio Mitre, RHP: Mitre provides little upside, but has experience as a major league starter, and is the Yankees’ most probable in-house candidate for the fifth starters spot. It’s highly unlikely that Mitre starts more than around 15 games for New York, but he’s at least capable of posting a positive WAR while providing bulk innings.
Other Options: The Yankees have help on the way in the form of the “Killer B’s” – Andrew Brackman^, Manny Banuelos^ and Dellin Betances^ – but while all are moderately close to MLB ready, none has pitched above double-A. Hector Noesi^ is somewhat of a darkhorse rotation candidate for the Yankees, but has more upside than Nova or Mitre. Romulo Sanchez likely becomes the spot-starter for the Yankees, as he has some experience as a starter in the minors. Joba Chamberlain could be converted back to a starter, but Brian Cashman has already ruled such a move out.
Final Analysis: The Yankees have a strong front of the rotation with Sabathia and Hughes, but have serious question marks throughout the rest of their staff. Burnett is still capable of occasional brilliance but seems to be on the downside of his career, and Mitre profiles better as a spot starter than a rotation staple. Nova has the least upside of any of the youngsters in the Yankees’ organization, but is the closest to MLB-ready. Noesi will likely be overlooked headed into spring training, but could end up as the Yankees’ fourth starter despite his lack of experience. Unless Andy Pettitte decides to pitch another year, the Yankees will enter 2011 with one of the shallowest rotations of any likely contender in the American League.
5) Baltimore Orioles
Projected Rotation
1) Jeremy Guthrie, RHP: Guthrie is the Orioles’ ace only in name, and pitches above his stuff thanks to help throughout his career from a low BABIP and high strand rate. He fits better as a No. 4 starter in the AL, but is likely to get the ball for the Orioles on opening day, and has the potential to be a 2.5 WAR pitcher.
2) Brian Matusz, LHP: Matusz is the ace of the Orioles’ rotation in terms of stuff and potential. After experiencing success in April, Matusz struggled for much of the middle of his first professional campaign, but posted a 3.38 FIP in August, and a 3.24 FIP in September. Given his minor league track record and stuff, he’s capable of pitching at that level all season.
3) Jake Arrieta, RHP: Arrieta has the potential to be a solid major league No. 3 starter, posting high walk rates all through his minor league career, but puting up big K numbers as well. Arrieta’s K/9 fell to 4.66 in 100.1 MLB innings in 2010 though, and he’ll need to significantly boost that number if he plans to be successful in 2011.
4) Brad Bergesen, RHP: Bergesen is often overlooked in a rotation filled with former high-profile prospects, but will be just 25 for most of the 2011 season, and has the potential to be a quality back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Bergesen may be better suited to long relief, but may be capable of supporting a 4.25 FIP if he misses a few more bats.
5) Chris Tillman, RHP: Tillman has yet to translate his ability into performance at the major league level, but has excelled at Triple-A, and has the best pure stuff of anyone on the Orioles’ staff save for Matusz. 2011 will likely determine whether Tillman will remain a part of the Orioles’ future or attempt to jumpstart his career with a different organization.
Other Options: Left-handed sinkerball prospect Zach Britton will likely be ready for MLB action by July, with Bergesen the most likely candidate for demotion to the bullpen if all five O’s starters remain healthy and fairly productive. Should injury necessitate a change before Britton is ready, Baltimore could turn to journeyman Rick VandenHurk, or give former top prospect Troy Patton a look. Brandon Erbe^ is also a possibility, though he fits better in the pen and is not yet ready for the majors.
Final Analysis: The Orioles rotation is full of promise – especially once Britton is on the scene – but could be in for a long year in 2011. Matusz is primed to improve on an up-and-down rookie campaign, but Arrieta and Tillman are likely to face their lumps as first time full-season MLB starters. Guthrie is serviceable, but could be used as trade bait, and Bergesen doesn’t miss enough bats to profile as anything other than a fifth starter. The Orioles also lack organizational depth unless Patton remarkably returns to his pre-injury form. These pitchers may look great in a rotation together by 2013, but 2011 is likely to yield overall poor results from what is a very young staff.
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