Next on my series of rotational rankings is the AL Central. Rankings are based on the upside, risk and depth of each rotation, but will not be related to the potential fantasy impact of any pitchers.
As always, feedback is appreciated.
(* signifies a new acquisition, ^ signifies rookie)
Click here for the AL East Rankings.
1) Chicago White Sox
Projected Rotation
1) Jake Peavy, RHP: Peavy enters the season as the titular ace of the White Sox’ staff, but comes with a bevy of question marks surrounding his health and ability. Peavy hasn’t had a great season since 2007, when he posted a 6.1 WAR, and he saw his fastball speed fall for the third straight season in 2010. His days as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher are likely behind him.
2) Mark Buehrle, LHP: Buehrle had somewhat of an odd year in 2010, as his advanced statistics improved while his basic statistics regressed, causing him to post an ERA above 4.00 for the first time since 2006. Buehrle was the victim of a high BABIP and low strand rate, however, and I would expect him to maintain his value as a 3-4 WAR pitcher in 2011.
3) Jon Danks, LHP: Danks seems like he’s been around forever, but will be just 26 for most of the 2011 season and didn’t become a full-time MLB starter until 2007. He’s arguably the best pitcher on the White Sox’ staff, and I expect him to improve his strikeout numbers as he enters his prime.
4) Gavin Floyd, RHP: Floyd has been a very consistent pitcher over the past three seasons, and his FIP has actually improved despite his win-loss record worsening. His strikeout rate fell while his walk rate rose in 2010, but thanks to a spike in his GB%, he was able to stay a 4+ WAR pitcher.
5) Edwin Jackson, RHP: Jackson has the reputation of a streaky pitcher, but he’s been pretty consistent over the past two seasons, posting a WAR of 3.5 in 2009 and 3.8 in 2010. Jackson will still be just 26 for most of the 2011 season, and if he increases his K/9 rate again, he could be the best No. 5 starter in the American League.
Other Options: Chris Sale^ is capable of developing into a high-strikeout No. 3 starter if moved to the rotation, but Chicago seems content keeping him in the bullpen. Jeff Marquez^ is a candidate for some starting time should injuries force the Sox to shuffled their rotation, as is Lucas Harrell^. Neither are high-upside options, but both have a shot at nearing positive WAR territory if used as starters sparingly.
Final Analysis: The White Sox have five pitchers capable of posting 4+ WAR seasons, and only one – Peavy – can be classified as unlikely to do so. Anything the White Sox get out of the former fireballer should be viewed as a positive at this point. Buehrle, Danks and Floyd are very consistent presences in the middle of the rotation, and Danks is just entering his prime. Jackson is a medium-risk, medium-upside option at the end of the rotation, but has room to improve. The White Sox don’t have great organizational starting depth unless they move Sale into the rotation, and may want to consider adding a long reliever with starting experience. Despite that shortcoming, this is still the deepest rotation in the division.
2) Minnesota Twins
Projected Rotation
1) Francisco Liriano, LHP: Liriano appeared to fully regain his health in 2010, and had an absolutely dominant season. In 191.2 innings pitched, Liriano posted a 2.66 FIP, 9.44 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9 despite being victimized by a .340 BABIP, and his slider rated as 19 wins above average. Posting 20 wins and 6+ WAR is a very real possibility for Liriano in 2011.
2) Scott Baker, RHP: Baker remained prone to the long ball in 2010, but posted a decent 3.96 FIP and upped his K/9 rate to 7.82. His biggest problem stemmed from his suddenly ineffective fastball, which fell from rating as 21.9 wins above average in 2009 to 8.9 wins below average last season. Baker didn’t lose any velocity, however, making him difficult to project for 2011.
3) Brian Duensing, RHP: Duensing put up great primary numbers in 2010, posting a 2.62 ERA, 10-3 record, and 0.76 HR/9 in 22 starts. He was hugely aided by a .276 BABIP and 81.6% strand rate, however, and is a candidate for major regression in 2011. He fits best as a fourth or fifth starter in the AL.
4) Kevin Slowey, RHP: Slowey experienced a down year in 2010, watching his strikeout, ground ball, and strand rates all fall from 2009. He has great control and will still be just 26 when the 2011 season begins, but he’ll need to boost his GB% and keep his homerun totals down if he wants to return to being a 3 WAR pitcher.
5) Nick Blackburn, RHP: Blackburn put up nearly identical stats in 2008 and 2009, and appeared well on his way to being a reliable number four starter. He took a turn for the worse last season though, posting a meager 3.80 K/9, a 5.07 FIP, and generating just 0.4 WAR in 161.1 IP.
Other Options: Glen Perkins had been primarily used as a starter throughout his career up until 2010, and will likely become the Twins’ long man out of the bullpen. Anthony Swarzak made 12 major league starts last year, and posted a WAR of exactly 0. Kyle Gibson^ is the Twins’ best prospect, and has No. 2 starter potential. He could be ready by June or July. David Bromberg^ is yet another low-risk, medium-reward arm in the Twins’ system, but could also be ready for the majors by midseason.
Final Analysis: The Twins derive most of their rotational value from depth, and have no impact arms aside from Liriano and possibly Gibson. Baker has the ability to be a solid No. 2/3 starter, but the mystery surrounding his fastball leaves me unwilling to project great things for him in 2011. Duensing, Slowey, and Blackburn are all No. 4 starter types, and Bromberg fits in with that group should he reach the majors. If Liriano posts another phenomenal campaign, Gibson progresses quickly, and Baker returns to his 2009 form, this could be the best rotation in the division. It’s more likely to be an average staff, but at least the Twins aren’t in danger of running out of viable arms.
3) Detroit Tigers
Projected Rotation
1) Justin Verlander, RHP: An ace in every sense of the word, Verlander has posted WARs of 8.3 and 6.3 over the past two seasons, and has a sub-3.00 FIP during that time as well. Verlander is a legitimate threat to win the pitching Triple Crown in 2011, and should be considered one of the frontrunners for the AL Cy Young award.
2) Max Scherzer, RHP: Scherzer got off to a rough start in Detroit last season, but was one of the better pitchers in the league after returning from a brief demotion to Triple-A. If he can improve his command slightly, don’t be surprised to see him provide 4-5 WAR and a 3.50 FIP as he enters his prime.
3) Rick Porcello, RHP: Porcello had what many considered to be a poor showing in 2010, but some regression from his .281 BABIP-aided 2009 campaign was to be expected. He’ll have to either improve his paltry 4.88 K/9 percentage or boost his GB% if he wants to post a sub-4.00 FIP in 2011, although with the Tigers’ suspect infield defense, the former may be a more attractive option.
4) Armando Galarraga, RHP: Galarraga received some national attention for his “near-perfect” game, but was a poor pitcher for most of last season. Galarraga posted 0.6 WAR and a 5.09 FIP in 144.1 innings in 2010, and will need to start missing a lot more bats if he hopes to improve, as hitters made contact with an astounding 91.9% of pitches he threw in the zone last season.
5) Phil Coke, LHP: Coke has been a reliever for his entire major league career to this point, but the Tigers plan on moving him to the rotation this spring. With a good fastball and excellent homerun rate Coke has a chance at success if he can maintain velocity into his starts, but his ceiling is probably as a fourth starter.
Other Options: Andy Oliver^ has the upside of a No. 3 starter, giving him a higher ceiling than Galarraga or Coke, and is likely to supplant one of them once he improves his command in the minors. He has a chance to win a rotation spot out of spring training. Charlie Furbush^ is another back-end option, but has pitched just 48.2 innings above Double-A. Brad Thomas is capable of spot starting, but shouldn’t be given a regular rotation spot.
Final Analysis: The Tigers have the potential to put together an excellent rotation in 2011, but the probability of reaching that potential isn’t very high. Verlander is a stud and one of the best 10 pitchers in baseball, but is the only sure thing in the Tigers’ entire rotation. Scherzer appears to be on the right track, but can’t be considered reliable yet, and Porcello needs to rebound from an ugly sophomore campaign. Coke’s upside as a starter is limited, and Galarraga is a fifth starter at best. Oliver gives the Tigers their best chance at improving their rotation internally, and would slot in nicely behind Porcello. It’s not hard to envision the Tigers having a better rotation than the Twins, but there’s an equal chance they fall apart behind Verlander.
4) Cleveland Indians
Projected Rotation
1) Fausto Carmona, RHP: Carmona had a solid-yet-unspectacular season in 2010, but that’s more than enough to make him the ace of this staff. He’s unlikely to ever return to his 2007 brilliance, but boosting his GB% to 60% and upping his K/9 to 6.00 would give him a solid chance at breaking 3 WAR for the second time in his career.
2) Justin Masterson, RHP: Masterson didn’t receive much attention in 2010, but posted the same 2.7 WAR as Carmona, and was good for a 3.93 FIP as well. He still struggles against left-handers – they’ve hit .291 against him during his career – and while he clearly has the durability to start, he might be most valuable as a high-leverage, multiple-inning reliever.
3) Carlos Carrasco, RHP: Carrasco was once viewed as a top prospect and future ace, but is clearly better suited for the middle of a major league rotation. He’ll be just 24 when the 2011 season begins, and while he’s likely to experience a few hiccups in his first full major league season, 2.5-3.5 WAR and a 4.00 FIP are within his reach.
4) Mitch Talbot, RHP: Tablot was a surprise candidate for AL Rookie of the Year up through June, but his absurdly low strikeout and high contact rates caught up with him, and he finished the year posting a 4.48 FIP and just 1.4 WAR. Talbot retains some value in his ability to provide bulk innings at slightly above replacement level, but he’s a number five starter at best.
5) Josh Tomlin, RHP: Tomlin is by no means a sure bet to make the Indians’ rotation out of spring training, but may have the inside track seeing as he made 12 major league starts last season. With a K/9 of just 5.30 and GB% of 28.4%, his ceiling is very limited, and if he provides even 1 WAR, the Indians should look at it as a victory.
Other Options: Aaron Laffey has experience as a starter and is left-handed, but experienced success as a reliever last season. David Huff is another lefty with starting experience and has more upside than Talbot or Tomlin, but had a down year in 2010. Jeanmar Gomez made 11 starts for the Tribe last season and has a solid chance at making the rotation out of spring training. Hector Rondon^ and Zach McAllister^ are two prospects with a good shot at seeing MLB time in 2011, but neither is likely to begin the season in the majors.
Final Analysis: The Indians have a rotation devoid of much upside or stability, and would probably have the worst rotation in any division not also containing the Kansas City Royals. Carmona and Masterson are more mid-rotation starters than aces, but will command the top spots in the Tribe’s rotation. Carrasco has No. 3 starter potential as well, but is far from a sure thing. Talbot and Tomlin look like early favorites to win starting jobs based on 2010, but are in the same category as Huff, Laffey and Gomez, and all have a chance at breaking the rotation out of spring training. Rondon and McAllister are both probably half a season away, and while the former has some upside, McAllister is more of a back-end option.
5) Kansas City Royals
Projected Rotations
1) Luke Hochevar, RHP: Hochevar was the number one pick in the 2006 draft, and while it’s abundantly clear that he’s never going to be an ace, he’s at least developing into a mid-rotation starter. It would be nice to see him lower his walk rate to his 2009 level, but as long as he avoids overusing his well below-average fastball, he’s a solid candidate to post 2 WAR.
2) Kyle Davies, RHP: Davies was considered by most to be a non-tender candidate, but posted 2 WAR while providing 183.2 innings for the Royals last season. If he can continue to lower his walk rate and improve his above average cutter, he’s capable of becoming a 3 WAR pitcher, which would make him the ace of the Royals’ rotation.
3) Vin Mazzaro, RHP*: Mazzaro was acquired from the Athletics in exchange for David DeJesus earlier this offseason, and goes from being the likely fifth starter in Oakland to the No. 3 option in Kansas City. He’s posted just 0.7 WAR in 213.2 MLB innings, and he’s unlikely to improve until he shows the same good control he did in the minors.
4) Sean O’Sullivan, RHP: O’Sullivan is more of an organizational arm than a qualified MLB starter, but will likely act as a rotational placeholder for the Royals until some of their prospects are major league ready. He’ll need to limit his HR rate and start missing more bats if he wants to break into positive WAR territory.
5) Robinson Tejeda, RHP: Tejada has started just seven games over the past three seasons and didn’t start at all in 2010, but is one of the few players capable of transitioning to the rotation in the Royals’ organization. He’ll need to dramatically improve his command and first-strike percentage if he’s to experience success as a starter.
Other Options: Gil Meche provided 11 WAR for the Royals as a starter from 2007-2009, but is being forced to the bullpen thanks to shoulder injuries. Former Tiger Zach Miner* was signed to a minor league contract and will have a shot at the rotation if healthy, but hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009 and hasn't started consistently since 2008. Kevin Pucetas^ is an uninspiring starting option, but is just 26 years old has 54 Triple-A starts under his belt. Jeremy Jeffrees*^ is universally believed to have a better chance at success as a reliever than a starter, but the Royals may opt to try him in the rotation.
Final Analysis: The Royals probably have the worst rotation in the majors as of January, and while help is one the way in the form of Mike Montgomery^, Danny Duffy^, John Lamb^, Jake Odorizzi*^, Tim Melville^, and more, they won’t arrive in time to salvage the 2011 staff. Hochevar and Davies are the only pitchers who would have a shot at cracking most rotations, but both profile as number four or five starters. Mazzaro had a solid minor league career and could become a passable back-of-the-rotation starter, but will need to improve his command. O’Sullivan, Pucetas and Miner are nothing more than organizational arms, and while Tejeda and Jeffrees fit better in the bullpen, both may be pressed into starting duties. The Royals will likely acquire another low-cost starter or two before the season begins, but 2011 will be an ugly year for pitchers in Kansas City.
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