Wednesday, January 11, 2012

2012 Farm System Rankings

As seen on NESN.com, here are my 2012 Farm System Rankings. I'll be coming out with a Top 100 list for NESN soon, so stay tuned.


If you'd like to see the series as it ran on NESN, here are the links.


Systems 30-21  I  20-11  I  10-1


As always, feedback is appreciated.


Although baseball fans typically spend the offseason analyzing their favorite team's major-league rosters, assessing a team's farm system can offer a better perspective of how well set-up that organization is to succeed not just in 2012, but for the foreseeable future as well.
With several major offseason deals in the books, and with the 2011 draft class now firmly entrenched in each team's system, now is as good a time as any to review how all 30 farm systems stack up heading into the 2012 season.
There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Minor League Ball's John Sickles and more, plus analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here is a series aiming to rank, in reverse order, all 30 farm systems.
It's not a perfect science, but in general, organizations with high-upside prospects rank higher than those without, and prospects who are closer to the majors are worth more than those who are further away. That being said, an organization's depth –- including in the low minors -– does factor in to where they rank.
To begin, the bottom 10 systems in baseball are listed below. For the most part, these systems either lack prominent prospects all together, or contain one or two high-end prospects with little talent to follow.
As always, players must meet MLB rookie eligibility requirements (under 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level) to qualify as part of an organization's farm system.
1) San Diego Padres
Top Prospect: Rymer Liriano, outfielder

The Padres boast the best combination of upside and probability of any farm system in baseball, and have talent through all levels of their minor leagues. Robbie Erlin, Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland should all be permanent members of the big league rotation by mid-2013, and Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Liriano, Corey Spangenberg and Jedd Gyorko give them a solid crop of offensive prospects as well. Trading Mat Latos to the Reds will hurt them in 2012, but it put them in a much better position going forward.

2) Toronto Blue Jays
Top Prospect: Travis d’Arnaud, catcher

GM Alex Anthopoulos has done a tremendous job building this farm system through trades, drafting and the international market, and as a result the Jays now have the top system in the American League. Jake Marisnik and Anthony Gose form one of the most dynamic outfield prospect pairings in baseball, and d’Arnaud is an elite catching prospect. With Drew Hutchison, Justin Nicolino, Noah Snydergaard, Daniel Norris, Deck McGuire and Aaron Sanchez, the Jays have a bevy of No. 2/3 starter types throughout the system as well. It’s a very impressive group, especially given the trade of Nestor Molina and recent graduations of Henderson Alvarez and Brett Lawrie.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks
Top Prospect: Trevor Bauer, starting pitcher

Even after trading Jarrod Parker for Trevor Cahill, the D-Backs boast one of the most impressive collections of pitchers in the minors. Bauer and Tyler Skaggs should be MLB-ready this season, and Archie Bradley, Pat Corbin and David Holmberg aren’t too far behind. Matt Davidson and Bobby Borchering could boast 30-homer power, and Anthony Meo and Andrew Chafin could be phenomenal relievers. Add in up-the-middle prospects Chris Owings and A.J. Pollock, and Arizona has set itself up for success for years to come.

4) Tampa Bay Rays
Top Prospect: Matt Moore, starting pitcher

It doesn’t matter how many prospects the Rays graduate to the majors each year – they just keep replenishing an incredibly deep system. Flame-throwing lefty Moore is one of the three or four best prospects in baseball, and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitcher Chris Archer will make plenty of Top 50 lists as well. A haul of Taylor Guerreri, Mikie Mathook and Grayson Garvin were parts of a good 2011 draft, and Brandon Guyer and Alex Torres, Alex Colome and Tim Beckham could play roles on the 2012 MLB club.

5) Texas Rangers
Top Prospect: Jurickson Profar, shortstop

The Rangers have a nice mix of talent in the low-to-mid minors. Profar is arguably the best shortstop prospect in the game, and has five-tool talent. Martin Perez’s prospect star has faded in recent months, but he’s still just 20 and reached Triple-A last season. He could join righty Neil Ramirez and lefty Robbie Ross in the Rangers’ rotation in short order, with Cody Buckel further away (and Yu Darvish a possibility too). Outfielder Leonys Martin will be an excellent defender with some pop in center, and Mike Olt is a promising corner infield bat in the low minors. Infielders Rougned Odor and Christian Villanueva are exciting too.