With spring training just around the corner and most major free agents off the market, early February is as good a time as any to examine the next wave of talent that will infiltrate Major League Baseball in 2012 and beyond. Farm systems are the lifeblood of major league organizations, and in an age where free agent contracts continue to grow, the ability to draft and groom homegrown talent is as important as ever.
There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Minor League Ball's John Sickles and more, plus discussions with those in the industry and analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here is a ranking of the Top 100 prospects in baseball.
The bottom twenty players on the list represent a combination of high-upside arms who are several years away from the majors, intriguing five-tool outfielders and some players who are close to the majors, but don’t profile as stars.
Players need to meet MLB rookie requirements (less than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched) to be eligible. Players must also currently be signed with an organization to be eligible, excluding would-be Top 100 candidates such as Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler.
1. Bryce Harper, outfielder, Washington Nationals
No reason to overthink this one -– the most-hyped prospect in the history of the draft is also the top minor leaguer in the game. Harper's bat is already the stuff of legends, and in terms of power, he'd stack up well against Mike Stanton and Ryan Howard if he broke into the majors tomorrow. Add in a plus arm, above-average speed and that he held his own as an 18-year-old in Double-A last season, and his talent is obvious. Harper should see the majors by July, and will be one of the game's premier sluggers by 2014.
2. Mike Trout, outfielder, Los Angeles Angels
Trout is the best prospect in the minors who's ready to contribute tomorrow, and if he were guaranteed 450 at-bats next season, he'd be the heavy favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. A true five-tool talent, Trout should provide Gold Glove-caliber defense in center and post an on-base percentage around .400 in his prime. He'sCarlos Beltran with a touch more speed and less power, and it's downright criminal that he may lose playing time to the likes of Vernon Wells.
3. Matt Moore, starting pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays
Another year goes by, and the Rays produce yet another top-10 pitching prospect. Moore lacks the pedigree of David Price or the polish of Jeremy Hellickson, but has an even higher ceiling than his prospect predecessors. He may struggle with his command at times, but Moore will likely challenge for the strikeout crown as early as this season, and is in some ways a similar player to reigning NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw.
4. Yu Darvish, starting pitcher, Texas Rangers
Yes, Japanese pitchers have a troubling record in the major leagues. And yes, there's certainly a possibility that Darvish will fail. But no one's ever posted the type of numbers in Nippon Professional Baseball -- including the once-heralded Daisuke Matsuzaka. His career-worst ERA in Japan is 1.88, and his lowest strikeouts per nine innings ratio is 8.3. Darvish is still just 25, throws six different pitches and has no history of injury. He should be an ace, and he's ready to pitch in the majors immediately.
5. Jesus Montero, designated hitter/catcher, Seattle Mariners
Recently traded for Michael Pineda, Montero can't catch, but his bat is so good it doesn't really matter. Montero reached base at a .406 clip with four doubles and four homers in 69 plate appearances last season. Extrapolate those numbers over 600 plate appearances and you'll have a solid idea of the type of offensive upside he brings. He'll be batting in the heart of the order for the next decade.
6. Jurickson Profar, shortstop, Texas Rangers
Machado may have more power, but with his superior speed, range and understanding of the strike zone, Profar is the best shortstop prospect in the minors. The 18-year-old walked more than he struck out in over 500 plate appearances in Single-A last season, and recorded 12 homers, 23 steals and a .390 on-base percentage to boot. Profar's at least two full minor league seasons away from the majors, but he has Jimmy Rollins-type upside.
7. Devin Mesoraco, catcher, Cincinnati Reds
A first-round pick in the 2007 draft, Mesoraco had fallen off the prospect map after two lackluster seasons before bursting back onto the scene in 2010. After a terrific 2011 campaign that saw him post a .371 on-base percentage in Triple-A, he's now ready to assume full-time big league duty in Cincinnati. Mesoraco should outperform the average MLB catcher immediately, and in his prime could have an offensive profile similar to that of Brian McCann.
8. Manny Machado, shortstop, Baltimore Orioles
Some prefer Machado to the shortstop ranked a few slots above him, and there's no doubt he's among the most powerful middle infield prospects in baseball. The third overall pick in the 2010 draft, Machado reached High-A in his first full professional season in 2011, but likely needs a bit more time there, as his approach suffered. He may outgrow shortstop, but if he can stick there, his upside is as a perennial All-Star capable of playing in the middle of the field and lineup.
9. Shelby Miller, starting pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals
Miller had a dominating 2011 season, reaching Double-A and striking out over a batter an inning there in 86 2/3 innings. He still needs to refine his command -– his 3.43 walks per nine innings rate leaves something to be desired -– but he should see the majors before the 2012 season is over, and before he celebrates his 22nd birthday. Miller should begin his major league career in the middle of the rotation, but will headline it before long.
10. Julio Teheran, starting pitcher, Atlanta Braves
The cream of what is an impressive crop of Braves pitching prospects, Teheran pitched very well at Triple-A last season, and held his own during a brief stint in the majors as well. He could benefit from another half-season in the minors, but considering he just turned 21, he's still ahead of the curve. He may not pile up the strikeouts at first, but Teheran's fastball and curveball are top-of-the-rotation type pitches.
11. Anthony Rendon, second/third baseman, Washington Nationals
Once favored to be the first overall pick in last year's draft, Rendon was injured for much of his junior campaign at Rice, and slid to sixth overall as a result. Nationals fans should be ecstatic, as they may have nabbed the draft's best prospect for the third straight year. Rendon is blocked at third base by Ryan Zimmerman, and some doubt whether he'll be able to transition smoothly to second base. No one doubts his bat, though, and he profiles as a slower Evan Longoria.
12. Jacob Turner, starting pitcher, Detroit Tigers
Detroit loves to push their young starters aggressively, and that's certainly been the case with Turner, who reached the majors in his second professional season last year. He's the odds-on favorite to start the year as the Tigers' fifth starter, but with just 30 innings above Double-A, he would likely benefit from another half-season in the minors. Turner profiles as a durable innings-eating No. 2 starter in the Matt Cain mold and should be a major contributor this year.
13. Wil Myers, outfielder, Kansas City Royals
Originally drafted as a catcher, the Royals transitioned Myers to the outfield with the hope that his bat would develop quickly. They may have been overly aggressive in sending him to Double-A last season, though, and the 21-year-old will likely repeat the level in 2012. That being said, Myers could see the majors by season's end, will hit for high averages and play good defense in right field immediately, and should hit for power as he ages.
14. Gerrit Cole, starting pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates
Trevor Bauer's rotation mate at UCLA and the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, Cole has some of the highest upside of any pitcher in the minors. Cole's command and delivery both lack in consistency, but when he's firing on all cylinders, he can be unhittable. Scouts disagree on when Cole will reach the majors -– some think he could be up by August, others think he'll take a year longer -– but he should be a 200-plus strikeout pitcher once he arrives.
15. Jameson Taillon, starting pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates
The second overall pick from the 2010 draft, Taillon has everything scouts look for in a young pitcher -– a large frame that suggests durability, a mid-90s fastball and a firm grasp of the strike zone. Taillon struck out over a batter per inning in Low-A last season while posting a solid 2.1 walks per nine innings rate. Look for Taillon to throw 120-140 innings this year and battle with the man who precedes him in these rankings to be the Pirates' ace in 2014.
16. Nolan Arenado, third baseman, Colorado Rockies
Arenado had a breakout 2011 campaign, hitting 20 homers and 32 doubles with a .349 on-base percentage in 583 plate appearances at High-A Modesto. Arenado also walked nearly as often as he struck out, and he took major strides in the field as well (many now view him as an average defender at third). Modesto is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment, so Arenado will need to prove his performance was legitimate in Double-A this season. If he does, he could see the majors by season's end.
17. Martin Perez, starting pitcher, Texas Rangers
Once upon a time, Perez would regularly invoke comparisons to fellow Venezuelan and left-hander Johan Santana, but his stock has fallen slightly in recent years. It took Perez over 200 innings to move past Double-A, but considering he's yet to see his 21st birthday, he still has an enormous amount of potential. If Perez improves his command, he's an ace in the making. If not, he could become a left-handed Ervin Santana. Either way, he'll be ready for the big leagues by July.
18. Manny Banuelos, starting pitcher, New York Yankees
Banuelos held his own as a 20-year-old in both Double-A and Triple-A last season, which speaks volumes about his potential. He didn't dominate at either level, though, and his high walk rates suggest he needs more time in the upper minors to refine his command. Banuelos needs another 100-or-so innings at Triple-A before he's major league ready, but he could be in the Yankees' rotation by midseason.
19. Travis d'Arnaud, catcher, Toronto Blue Jays
A major part of the Roy Halladay trade, d'Arnaud's production finally matched his talents in 2011, as the 22-year-old catcher hit .311 with 21 homers and a .374 on-base percentage in 114 games at Double-A. He still needs to improve his approach -– he struck out in over a fifth of his at-bats, while walking just seven percent of the time -– but the tools are there for d'Arnaud to become an All-Star. He should challenge J.P. Arencibia for regular catching duties in 2013.
20. Bubba Starling, outfielder, Kansas City Royals
If you like upside, Starling is the prospect for you. An incredibly athletic talent who the Royals signed away from a football scholarship at Nebraska, Starling is a potential five-tool centerfielder. He's as raw as he is athletic, though, and is the type of player who is likely to need at least three full seasons in the minors. This is an aggressive ranking for him, but if everything breaks right, he could be a Jim Edmonds-like player.
21. Drew Pomeranz, starting pitcher, Colorado Rockies
The key piece coming back to the Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, Pomeranz is very close to being MLB ready in what will be just his second professional season. The big left-hander excelled in High-A last season, pitched well in five Double-A starts, and held his own in four major league starts at season’s end. He’s more of a mid-rotation starter than a potential ace, but he's a safe bet to become a Jon Danks-type starter in short order.
22. Trevor Bauer, starting pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-backs selected Bauer third overall last June, and hope he can follow the likes of Roy Oswalt, Tim Lincecum and other short, hard-throwing righties who've dominated in the National League. Considered by some to be the most MLB-ready right-hander in the draft, Bauer made four starts in Double-A after signing and should begin 2012 there as well. It wouldn't be surprising to see him crack the big leagues by June, though, and he should be successful immediately.
23. Danny Hultzen, starting pitcher, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners surprised many by taking Hultzen with the second overall pick this June, and while it's unlikely they nabbed a future ace, they did get the most MLB-ready pitcher in the draft. Hultzen has good command of three average-or-better offerings, a durable frame and the good fortune to throw with his left hand. He could be ready for the majors by June and is in many ways similar to Drew Pomeranz, but with a touch more upside.
24. Carlos Martinez, starting pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals
One of the most exciting arms in the low minors, Martinez racked up 98 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings between Single and High-A last season. The 20-year-old throws in the mid-90s and induces ground balls at a high rate. There's some significant recoil in his delivery, though, leading some to believe he’ll wind up in the bullpen. Either way Martinez has an electric arm, and his next test will be to throw for more innings while developing his secondary pitches.
25. Tyler Skaggs, starting pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
The main piece coming back to the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade, Skaggs has dramatically improved his prospect stock over the past two seasons. Once viewed as a mid-rotation starter, Skaggs now looks more like a future number two or borderline ace, and has posted huge strikeout numbers in High-A and Double-A last season. He needs another 100 innings in the minors to work on his command, which will be important as Skaggs lacks premium velocity.
26. Dylan Bundy, starting pitcher, Baltimore Orioles
The first high school arm and fourth overall player selected in the 2011 draft, Bundy is very polished and should move through the minors faster than most high school arms. He's just 19 and has yet to throw a professional inning, though, so he's still several seasons away from the majors. The only real concern anyone has about Bundy is his size –- he's a little smaller than most power pitchers, but there's nothing in his delivery that suggests durability will become an issue down the line.
27. Miguel Sano, third baseman, Minnesota Twins
Sano has been a heralded prospect since signing with the Twins in 2010, and put up huge numbers as an 18-year-old in rookie ball last season. Sano hit 20 homers and a total of 45 extra base hits in 2012, but struck out far too much and is still a work in progress defensively at third. Worst-case scenario, Sano moves across the diamond to first base, and only his power translates to the majors. Best-case, he's a three-tool third baseman capable of hitting 40-plus homers a year.
28. Rymer Liriano, outfielder, San Diego Padres
This is about as high as you'll see Liriano on any prospect list, but potential five-tool center fielders don't grow on trees. There’s plenty for Liriano to work on –- he needs to improve his defense, face more advanced competition and prove his 2011 walk rate wasn't a fluke. But in terms of tools, Liriano can compare to a player such as Grady Sizemore if he maintains his speed, or Hunter Pence if he fills out a bit more. He's a high-risk, high-reward prospect, but his potential is too great to ignore.
29. Jarrod Parker, starting pitcher, Oakland Athletics
The main piece coming back to the Athletics in the Trevor Cahill deal, Parker has been all over the prospect map since being drafted in 2008. He missed the entire 2010 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but threw 130 2/3 strong Double-A innings last season. His strikeouts were down and his walks were up from his pre-surgery days, but that's to be expected in his first year back. Parker could use another half-season in the minors, but he has No. 2 starter potential.
30. A.J. Cole, starting pitcher, Oakland Athletics
A cursory look at Cole's numbers in Single-A last season might not impress you, but if you look past his win-loss record and his ERA –- two relatively ineffective statistics –- it's evident that Cole dominated. A 10.99 strikeouts per nine innnigs, 2.43 walks per nine innings and 2.53 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark indicate that Cole had little trouble dispensing with older competition. Cole will look to increase his workload in 2012, and could reach Double-A by season's end. He has ace potential.
31. Taijuan Walker, starting pitcher, Seattle Mariners
Walker is raw and relatively untested, but there's a lot to like with his athletic frame, youth and plus fastball. Walker struck out 122 batters in 104 2/3 innings last season, and if all goes well he could reach Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2012. Odds are better that he'll need at least two more seasons in the minors to refine his command and develop his off-speed pitch, but he's on the short list of highest-upside pitchers in the minors.
32. Hak-Ju Lee, shortstop, Tampa Bay Rays
While Lee flashes five-tool potential, he's no lock to reach double-digit homers in the majors with any consistency. That being said, his other four tools all grade as above average, and Lee should be a productive MLB shortstop in fairly short order. Lee should spend his age 21 season at Double-A, where he'll work on limiting his strikeouts and better translating his speed into range in the field and steals on the bases. His floor appears to be as a Jason Bartlett-type player, but he has the ability to be much more.
33. Anthony Rizzo, first baseman, Chicago Cubs
Many seem to be down on Rizzo after he struggled badly in 49 games in the majors last season, but all he needs is more time to develop. Rizzo mashed to the tune of a .331 average and .404 OBP with 26 homers and 34 doubles in 413 plate appearances in Triple-A as a 22-year-old. That's impressive, and is even more so when you consider Rizzo lost an entire year of development in 2008 while battling cancer. He's a future 30-homer threat and plus defender who should be ready by July.
34. Gary Sanchez, catcher, New York Yankees
Perhaps the catcher with the highest upside in the minors, Sanchez has nearly the offensive upside of former Yankees prospect Jesus Montero, but with the physical tools needed to stay behind the plate. Still only 19, Sanchez needs to cut his strikeout rate and improve his maturity, but he has massive power –- he had 34 extra base hits (XBH) in 301 at-bats last season –- and should move up to High-A in 2012. If he improves his walk rate, he'll be an elite prospect.
35. Jake Marisnick, outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays
Marisnick exploded onto the prospect scene in 2011, hitting .320-17-77 with 37 steals and a .392 OBP in Single-A. Although those numbers are eye-popping, an even stronger indicator of success for Marisnick is that his walk rate rose while his strikeout rate fell last season, indicating a better approach at the plate. This is an aggressive ranking for him after just one standout season, but he's a potential five-tool centerfielder with an advanced feel for hitting at age 20.
36. Zack Wheeler, starting pitcher, New York Mets
The Mets absolutely robbed the Giants when they nabbed Wheeler for Carlos Beltran last July, and now get to reap the rewards of his promising young career. He needs to refine his command –- his BB/9 was north of four in High-A last season –- but if he does, he has ace potential. Still just 21, Wheeler posted a strikeouts per nine innings above 10 and induced a groundball rate of over 50 percent, so it’s clear that he dominates when around the plate.
37. Randall Delgado, starting pitcher, Atlanta Braves
Frequently overshadowed by fellow prospects Vizcaino and Julio Teheran, Delgado is an outstanding pitcher in his own right. Delgado won't turn 22 until February, yet reached the majors last season after a solid showing in Double-A and a brief stint at Triple-A. He needs to refine his command and better develop a third pitch to complement his devastating fastball-changeup combo, but has the ceiling of a number two pitcher with a fairly high floor as well.
38. Brett Jackson, outfielder, Chicago Cubs
Jackson is a fairly divisive player in the prospect community –- some see a potential star, whereas others think he'll flame out against major league pitching. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, and while Jackson's high strikeout rates might prevent him from posting elite OBPs, his power/speed combination is very real. Jackson compares favorably to a left-handed Chris Young, albeit with less range and more patience. He should be MLB ready by July.
39. Robbie Erlin, starting pitcher, San Diego Padres
It's not hard to make the case that Erlin has the best command of any pitcher in the minors. The lefty walked just 16 batters in 147 1/3 innings pitched between High and Double-A last season, while striking out 154 opponents over that same period. Erlin is somewhat undersized and lacks a true out pitch, but has a very high floor. He'll be a number three caliber MLB starter by June, and has number two starter potential.
40. Arodys Vizcaino, pitcher, Atlanta Braves
Based on pure talent, Vizcaino is arguably a Top 20 prospect. What's troubling, though, is that he's been rushed through the minors and has thrown over 85 innings just once in his professional career. He's small, listed at just six feet and a generous 190 pounds, and has already battled injuries in his career. Vizcaino showed how dominant he can be out of the bullpen in a brief major league stint last season, and his future may lie in relief.
41. Matt Harvey, starting pitcher, New York MetsThe seventh overall pick in the 2007 draft, Harvey is a classic power right-hander. He generates excellent velocity on his fastball, has a heavy sinker and a power curveball that's a reliable pitch as well. The Mets' have been conservative with Harvey -– he's pitched just 60 innings above High-A –- and he should get his first taste of Triple-A in 2012, with a chance for a MLB cameo late in the season. If all goes well, he should be a number two starter.
42. Gary Brown, outfielder, San Francisco GiantsBrown is one of the fastest players in the minors, and there's no question that his speed and glove tools are elite. He was a bit old for High-A and played in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League, but his 2011 numbers were outstanding –- a .336 average, .407 OBP, 61 XBH and 53 steals. If the power is legit, he profiles as a faster Shane Victorino. If not, he'd be a better offensive version of Peter Bourjos.
43. Anthony Gose, outfielder, Toronto Blue JaysWhen it comes to tools, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better prospect than Gose, who profiles as a plus defender in center with plenty of speed and pop. Unfortunately his hit tool isn't yet fully developed, and the 21-year-old struck out in 26.2 percent of his at-bats in Double-A last season. Unless he dramatically changes his approach, Gose is likely to transform into a faster Adam Jones. There's plenty of value in a player like that, and if he puts it all together his ceiling is even higher.
44. Archie Bradley, starting pitcher, Arizona DiamondbacksIn a lot of drafts, Bradley would be the best high school arm available. Thanks to Dylan Bundy, he wasn't even the best high school arm from the state of Oklahoma. That being said, Bradley absolutely has number one starter potential, and is superior to Bundy in that his large, athletic frame is built for pitching. He won't skyrocket through the minors, but he has more polish than many of his fellow prep pitchers and could be MLB ready by mid-2014.
45. Francisco Lindor, shortstop, Cleveland IndiansThe best shortstop in the 2011 draft, Lindor is the bright spot in an Indians system decimated by trades, graduations and injuries. Lindor may not have plus power or speed, but should be slightly above-average in both areas, and has a chance to be an excellent defender. He's got an above-average bat as well, and it's easy to see him developing into a future No. 2 hitter. Lindor will take a while to get to the majors, but brings a nice blend of upside and probability.
46. James Paxton, starting pitcher, Seattle MarinersPaxton's taken an odd route to the majors, opting to play in the Independent League after refusing to sign with the Blue Jays, who took him with 37th overall pick in the 2009 draft. Paxton's gamble didn't pay off, as the M's then took him in the fourth round in 2010, but he's reestablished himself as one of the game's best left-handed pitching prospects. Paxton's already 23 and should start 2012 in Double-A, but if he can harness his command he should shoot through the minors. He's a potential number two starter.
47. Yasmani Grandal, catcher, San Diego PadresOne of the key components headed to the Padres in the Mat Latos trade, Grandal is adept at calling games, is a switch-hitter and reached Triple-A in just his first full professional season last year. He's a work in progress defensively, though, and doesn't figure to have plus power. He's more likely to be an above-average player than a true star, but he could be ready by late 2012 and MLB catchers are always in short order.
48. Mike Montgomery, starting pitcher, Kansas City RoyalsIf you like Montgomery, you see a nearly MLB-ready lefty with three solid pitches and youth on his side and a potential ace with a high ceiling. If you don't like him, you see an injury-plagued, inconsistent starter whose minor league numbers have never matched his talent. Even if Montgomery never puts it all together, lefties who produce high groundball rates will always have roles in the majors and he should at least develop into a mid-rotation starter.
49. Yonder Alonso, first baseman, San Diego PadresAlonso lacks the type of prodigious power generally seen from blue-chip first base prospects, but he certainly doesn't lack for a hit tool, and he should hit above .280 in the majors from day one. Alonso put up identical counting stats in two Triple-A stints in 2010 and 2011, but improved his walk rate and OBP last season. He profiles as a Billy Butler-type who can actually field, although he's restricted to first base. Petco Park will suppress his already suspect power, though, so 15 homers might be his immediate ceiling.
50. Michael Choice, outfielder, Oakland AthleticsOne of the most powerful prospects in the game, Choice mashed 30 homers and 27 doubles in High-A last season, all while maintaining a .375 OBP and manning center field. He doesn't rank higher on this list, though, because of his strikeout issues and the likelihood that he'll need to move to right field. Choice has a patient approach and should get on base at an acceptable clip in the majors, but his strikeout rate may prevent him from becoming an elite player.
51. Wilin Rosario, catcher, Colorado RockiesOnce viewed as one of the elite catching prospects in the game, Rosario took a major step back last year in terms of his approach at the plate, seeing his strikeout rate rise while his walk rate fell, and reaching base at a sub-.300 clip. Rosario still has plus power and a plus arm and is defensively adequate, but will need a strong offensive season at Triple-A if he wants to profile as more than a mid-tier MLB catcher.
52. Jake Odorizzi, starting pitcher, Kansas City Royals2011 was a tale of two seasons for Odorizzi, who absolutely dominated in 78.1 innings in High-A before hitting the wall in 68.2 innings in Double-A. It's tempting to just chalk his struggles up to a 21-year-old trying to compete in the upper minors, but Odorizzi's home run rate has to give even his biggest supporters pause. He'll likely return to Double-A to begin 2012, and a better performance this time around will cement his status as an elite pitching prospect.
53. Jean Segura, shortstop, Los Angeles AngelsOne of the most dynamic middle infield prospects in the game, Segura would rank higher on this list were it not for an injury-marred 2011 campaign that saw him play just 55 games, nearly half of which came in rookie ball. Injuries can be forgiven, but Segura's was especially worrisome because he hurt his hamstring and derives much of his value from speed. He should begin 2012 in Double-A, and could supplant Erick Aybar as the Angels' shortstop in 2013.
54. Zach Lee, starting pitcher, Los Angeles DodgersThe Dodgers' first round pick in the 2010 draft, Lee is a scout's dream in terms of his athleticism and build. Built to be a workhorse starter with a repeatable delivery, Lee pitched well in his first professional season, posting a 3.68 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) with a solid 2.6 BB/9 rate. His stock may fall a little if he doesn't improve his 7.51 K/9 rate from 2011, but he'll be just 20 for the majority of the season, so he has plenty of time to impress.
55. Drew Hutchison, starting pitcher, Toronto Blue JaysThe best pitching prospect in a system littered with exciting arms, Hutchison boosted his value more than just about any other Toronto prospects in 2011. Still just 21, Hutchison dominated in 134.2 innings between Single- and High-A before making three starts in Double-A at season's end. What's further encouraging is the frequency with which he produces ground balls. Some see Hutchison as more of a mid-rotation workhorse, but his ability in keep the ball on the ground can make him a No. 2 starter.
56. Will Middlebrooks, third baseman, Boston Red SoxThis is a slightly aggressive ranking for Middlebrooks, and it's true that his contact issues may prevent him from reaching his potential. But if he can improve his approach even slightly, Middlebrooks' plus power, arm and defense could make him an All-Star at a time when there are few elite third baseman in the game. Middlebrooks should begin 2012 in Triple-A, and while he could use another 300-or-so at-bats there, he'll be ready for the majors by July.
57. Nick Franklin, shortstop, Seattle MarinersFranklin's 2011 season was a disappointing one. The 20-year-old couldn't stay on the field thanks to freak injuries and illness, and when he was playing he didn't show anywhere near the same type of power he did in his breakout 2010 campaign. Franklin was also shaky defensively, and some believe he'll have to move to second base. His ceiling is still as a shortstop with 20-homer pop and 15-steal speed, but he looks less likely to reach it than he did a year ago.
58. Jonathan Singleton, first baseman, Houston AstrosA big part of the Hunter Pence trade, Singleton is a high-upside first baseman who may not fit the offensive mold for that position. Singleton has posted a consistently excellent OBP during his time in the minors, but has yet to show the type of power teams like to see from a corner infielder. He's still just 20, so his pop might come, but if he fails to eclipse 40 extra base hits (XBH) again in 2012, his stock will fall.
59. Neil Ramirez, starting pitcher, Texas RangersPerhaps no prospect was pushed as aggressively in 2011 as Ramirez, who the Rangers promoted to Triple-A after just one dominating start in High-A. Ramirez performed quite well in the upper minors, posting a 10.41 K/9 rate and 3.63 ERA. His walk and groundball rates are troubling though, as was his relatively low innings total. Repeating Triple-A at age 23 still leaves Ramirez ahead of the curve, though, and he could be MLB-ready by July.
60. Wily Peralta, starting pitcher, Milwaukee BrewersProspect junkies and Brewers fans alike started the 2011 season wondering who the real Wily Peralta was –- was he the dominant force who struck out 118 batters in 2009, or the flameout who struggled badly in 2010? The answer lies somewhere in between, and while Peralta may not be an ace in the making, he'll be an MLB-ready number three starter by July. If he can improve his changeup, he should have a few very successful years, similarly to Ervin Santana.
61. Brad Peacock, starting pitcher, Oakland Athletics
If you think Peacock is a starter, you likely want him 20 spots higher than this. If you think he's a reliever, you probably think he shouldn’t be on here at all. This ranking splits the difference and acknowledges Peacock's phenomenal 2011 season, while also respecting the notion that he was pretty darn lucky last year too. Peacock will get the chance to be a starter this year and should rack up plenty of strikeouts, but he doesn't induce enough groundballs to be more than a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. That being said, he's ready to begin 2012 in the A's rotation.
If you think Peacock is a starter, you likely want him 20 spots higher than this. If you think he's a reliever, you probably think he shouldn’t be on here at all. This ranking splits the difference and acknowledges Peacock's phenomenal 2011 season, while also respecting the notion that he was pretty darn lucky last year too. Peacock will get the chance to be a starter this year and should rack up plenty of strikeouts, but he doesn't induce enough groundballs to be more than a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. That being said, he's ready to begin 2012 in the A's rotation.
62. Casey Kelly, starting pitcher, San Diego Padres
Kelly had yet another fairly disappointing statistical season in 2011, posting a K/9 rate of just 6.64 and an ERA of 3.98 over 142.1 innings in Double-A. Scouts remain high on the pure quality of his stuff, though, and he did improve his command and velocity from 2010 while inducing ground balls at a high rate. There's a tendency to ignore Kelly since he may not develop into the ace many originally thought, but he still has a high floor as a mid-rotation innings eater with the potential to be more.
Kelly had yet another fairly disappointing statistical season in 2011, posting a K/9 rate of just 6.64 and an ERA of 3.98 over 142.1 innings in Double-A. Scouts remain high on the pure quality of his stuff, though, and he did improve his command and velocity from 2010 while inducing ground balls at a high rate. There's a tendency to ignore Kelly since he may not develop into the ace many originally thought, but he still has a high floor as a mid-rotation innings eater with the potential to be more.
63. Xander Bogaerts, shortstop/third baseman, Boston Red Sox
Few prospects improved their stock in 2011 more than Bogaerts, who went from a relative unknown to the man many consider to be the best prospect in the Sox' system. Scouts doubt whether Bogaerts will be able to remain at shortstop, but no one doubts his power, as the 19-year-old Aruban mashed 32 XBH in 265 at-bats in Low-A last season. If he continues to flash that kind of pop, he'd be comparable to a more athletic version of Twins' prospect Miguel Sano, who ranks much higher on this list.
Few prospects improved their stock in 2011 more than Bogaerts, who went from a relative unknown to the man many consider to be the best prospect in the Sox' system. Scouts doubt whether Bogaerts will be able to remain at shortstop, but no one doubts his power, as the 19-year-old Aruban mashed 32 XBH in 265 at-bats in Low-A last season. If he continues to flash that kind of pop, he'd be comparable to a more athletic version of Twins' prospect Miguel Sano, who ranks much higher on this list.
64. Dellin Betances, starting pitcher, New York Yankees
A high-risk, high-reward prospect, Betances seems destined to be a number two starter, an impact reliever or flame out completely. A physical monster at 6-foot-8, 260 pounds, Betances has always put up big strikeout numbers, but is held back by a lengthy injury history and command problems. He's likely to spend 2012 at Triple-A and could see a few major league starts if all goes well. He'll need to throw over 150 innings if he wants to prove he can start long term.
A high-risk, high-reward prospect, Betances seems destined to be a number two starter, an impact reliever or flame out completely. A physical monster at 6-foot-8, 260 pounds, Betances has always put up big strikeout numbers, but is held back by a lengthy injury history and command problems. He's likely to spend 2012 at Triple-A and could see a few major league starts if all goes well. He'll need to throw over 150 innings if he wants to prove he can start long term.
65. Billy Hamilton, shortstop, Cincinnati Reds
Hamilton is the fastest player in the minors, and the 21-year-old stole 103 -– yes, 103 -- bases in 135 games in Single-A last season. The biggest knock on Hamilton is his strength –- he's wire-thin -- and scouts fear he won't have enough pop to keep pitchers honest or enough of an arm to stay at short. Still, the worst-case scenario for Hamilton is ending up as a plus center fielder in a mold similar to Michael Bourn. If he can stay at short, he'll be a special player.
Hamilton is the fastest player in the minors, and the 21-year-old stole 103 -– yes, 103 -- bases in 135 games in Single-A last season. The biggest knock on Hamilton is his strength –- he's wire-thin -- and scouts fear he won't have enough pop to keep pitchers honest or enough of an arm to stay at short. Still, the worst-case scenario for Hamilton is ending up as a plus center fielder in a mold similar to Michael Bourn. If he can stay at short, he'll be a special player.
66. Nick Castellanos, third baseman, Detroit Tigers
Castellanos had a very solid first full professional season in 2011, hitting .317 with a .367 OBP and 46 XBH in Single-A. What's troubling, though, is that he struck out in 23.1 percent of his at-bats while walking just 8 percent of the time, and he hit only seven home runs. He has all the natural skills to develop into a four-tool third baseman, but is still several seasons away from sniffing the majors. If he adds power without sacrificing his range in the field, he could move quickly.
Castellanos had a very solid first full professional season in 2011, hitting .317 with a .367 OBP and 46 XBH in Single-A. What's troubling, though, is that he struck out in 23.1 percent of his at-bats while walking just 8 percent of the time, and he hit only seven home runs. He has all the natural skills to develop into a four-tool third baseman, but is still several seasons away from sniffing the majors. If he adds power without sacrificing his range in the field, he could move quickly.
67. Oscar Taveras, outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals
Taveras is high on many prospect lists this off-season, but while there's plenty to like about him, he's a bit overrated thanks to his outrageous .386 average. There's no disputing that Taveras has an exceptionally polished approach for his age –- he won't turn 20 until June –- but the .440 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) he posted last season is unsustainable. He lacks the range to play center and the power to profile in a corner outfield spot, so he'll need to reach base frequently and get stronger to succeed. But the upside is there.
Taveras is high on many prospect lists this off-season, but while there's plenty to like about him, he's a bit overrated thanks to his outrageous .386 average. There's no disputing that Taveras has an exceptionally polished approach for his age –- he won't turn 20 until June –- but the .440 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) he posted last season is unsustainable. He lacks the range to play center and the power to profile in a corner outfield spot, so he'll need to reach base frequently and get stronger to succeed. But the upside is there.
68. Christian Yelich, outfielder, Florida Marlins
Yelich had a phenomenal first full professional season in 2011, validating his status as the Marlins' first-round pick in 2010. Despite playing the year at age 19, Yelich hit 15 homers, 32 doubles and reached base at a .388 clip, all while swiping 32 bases in 37 attempts in Single-A. He should move up to High-A as a 20-year-old in 2012, and if he performs that well again he'll be an elite prospect. His upside is as a moderate five-tool center fielder.
Yelich had a phenomenal first full professional season in 2011, validating his status as the Marlins' first-round pick in 2010. Despite playing the year at age 19, Yelich hit 15 homers, 32 doubles and reached base at a .388 clip, all while swiping 32 bases in 37 attempts in Single-A. He should move up to High-A as a 20-year-old in 2012, and if he performs that well again he'll be an elite prospect. His upside is as a moderate five-tool center fielder.
69. Josh Bell, outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
The surprise sign of the 2011 draft, Bell was viewed as a lock to temporarily forgo professional ball and attend the University of Texas, but the Pirates changed his mind with a $5 million contract. Bell was one of the top 10 talents in the draft, and profiles as a power hitter with the defensive chops to handle right field. He's young and at least three seasons away, but the Pirates could be looking at a Mike Stanton-like player.
The surprise sign of the 2011 draft, Bell was viewed as a lock to temporarily forgo professional ball and attend the University of Texas, but the Pirates changed his mind with a $5 million contract. Bell was one of the top 10 talents in the draft, and profiles as a power hitter with the defensive chops to handle right field. He's young and at least three seasons away, but the Pirates could be looking at a Mike Stanton-like player.
70. Taylor Jungmann, starting pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers
This may be the highest you'll see Jungmann on any list, but while the big right-hander lacks ace potential, he was one of the safest picks in the 2011 draft and should be MLB-ready at some point in 2013. He hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet, but there's no reason he should start 2012 anywhere lower than High-A, and it's not hard to envision him ending the year in the upper minors. He profiles as a durable, mid-rotation workhorse in the Jeff Niemann mold with a chance to be something more.
This may be the highest you'll see Jungmann on any list, but while the big right-hander lacks ace potential, he was one of the safest picks in the 2011 draft and should be MLB-ready at some point in 2013. He hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet, but there's no reason he should start 2012 anywhere lower than High-A, and it's not hard to envision him ending the year in the upper minors. He profiles as a durable, mid-rotation workhorse in the Jeff Niemann mold with a chance to be something more.
71. Jon Schoop, second base, Baltimore Orioles
Schoop had an exciting season in 2011, reaching Double-A at the age of 19 and largely holding his own there after dominating in High-A. Schoop's patience and power regressed once he reached the higher level, though, and he'll likely need to spend all of 2012 refining his approach there. Schoop profiles as a good defender at second with unusual power for the position, and should be MLB-ready by mid-2013. He and Manny Machadomake for one of the more exciting middle-infield prospect duos in baseball.
Schoop had an exciting season in 2011, reaching Double-A at the age of 19 and largely holding his own there after dominating in High-A. Schoop's patience and power regressed once he reached the higher level, though, and he'll likely need to spend all of 2012 refining his approach there. Schoop profiles as a good defender at second with unusual power for the position, and should be MLB-ready by mid-2013. He and Manny Machadomake for one of the more exciting middle-infield prospect duos in baseball.
72. Nestor Molina, starting pitcher, Chicago White Sox
Traded to the White Sox in December for Sergio Santos, Molina immediately became the best prospect in what is a barren system. After a solid 2010 campaign, the 23-year-old righty dominated in High-A last season, striking out over one batter per inning while inducing a fair amount of ground balls. Molina doesn't rank higher because he isn't young for his league and some fear he'll end up in the bullpen, but the bet here is that his control allows him to become a mid-rotation starter by 2013.
Traded to the White Sox in December for Sergio Santos, Molina immediately became the best prospect in what is a barren system. After a solid 2010 campaign, the 23-year-old righty dominated in High-A last season, striking out over one batter per inning while inducing a fair amount of ground balls. Molina doesn't rank higher because he isn't young for his league and some fear he'll end up in the bullpen, but the bet here is that his control allows him to become a mid-rotation starter by 2013.
73. Trevor May, starting pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies
May had an excellent 2011 season, putting up some eye-popping strikeout numbers while producing a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark of 2.69. His success does come with some caveats, though, as May was repeating High-A as a 21-year-old and still walked over four batters per nine innings. May has No. 2 starter potential, but will need to improve his command and start inducing more groundballs if he's to fully develop.
May had an excellent 2011 season, putting up some eye-popping strikeout numbers while producing a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark of 2.69. His success does come with some caveats, though, as May was repeating High-A as a 21-year-old and still walked over four batters per nine innings. May has No. 2 starter potential, but will need to improve his command and start inducing more groundballs if he's to fully develop.
74. Sonny Gray, starting pitcher, Oakland Athletics
Gray was the 18th overall pick in the 2011 draft, which will make him a bargain if he can start or a reach if he ends up in the bullpen. Gray's fastball and curveball are both above-average pitches, and the latter in particular has the ability to become special. However, Gray's changeup isn't MLB-ready, he has a small frame and erratic delivery and his command is just average. The A's will give him every chance to start, and he should spend 2012 in Double-A.
Gray was the 18th overall pick in the 2011 draft, which will make him a bargain if he can start or a reach if he ends up in the bullpen. Gray's fastball and curveball are both above-average pitches, and the latter in particular has the ability to become special. However, Gray's changeup isn't MLB-ready, he has a small frame and erratic delivery and his command is just average. The A's will give him every chance to start, and he should spend 2012 in Double-A.
75. Starling Marte, outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
Statistically speaking, Marte had a phenomenal 2011 campaign, hitting .332 with a .370 OBP, 58 extra base hits (XBH) and 24 steals. There's plenty to suggest that luck factored into his success, though, as Marte's .390 batting average on balls in play was insanely high, even for someone with his speed. Marte figures to be a plus defender in center and has enough power to keep pitchers honest, but will need to improve his approach if he's to become a star. He should be MLB-ready by July.
Statistically speaking, Marte had a phenomenal 2011 campaign, hitting .332 with a .370 OBP, 58 extra base hits (XBH) and 24 steals. There's plenty to suggest that luck factored into his success, though, as Marte's .390 batting average on balls in play was insanely high, even for someone with his speed. Marte figures to be a plus defender in center and has enough power to keep pitchers honest, but will need to improve his approach if he's to become a star. He should be MLB-ready by July.
76. Tim Wheeler, outfielder, Colorado Rockies
The good –- Wheeler mashed 33 homers, 28 doubles, stole 21 bases and manned center field in Double-A in 2011. The bad –- he's already 24, may be a right fielder in the long run and he struck out in 22.3 percent of his at-bats. Add it all together and Wheeler is an intriguing prospect, but not as elite as his stat line would lead you to believe. Still, his floor is decently high as a power-hitting right fielder who can play well in a corner spot.
The good –- Wheeler mashed 33 homers, 28 doubles, stole 21 bases and manned center field in Double-A in 2011. The bad –- he's already 24, may be a right fielder in the long run and he struck out in 22.3 percent of his at-bats. Add it all together and Wheeler is an intriguing prospect, but not as elite as his stat line would lead you to believe. Still, his floor is decently high as a power-hitting right fielder who can play well in a corner spot.
77. Javier Baez, third baseman/shortstop, Chicago Cubs
The ninth overall pick in the 2011 draft, Baez has an exciting bat but major flaws as well. He's very unlikely to stay at shortstop -- with a move to third base likely coming within the year -- and Baez has been accused of having character issues as well. That being said, his hit-and-arm tools are already above average, and scouts think he'll grow into power, so he could become a prototypical mashing third baseman in time.
The ninth overall pick in the 2011 draft, Baez has an exciting bat but major flaws as well. He's very unlikely to stay at shortstop -- with a move to third base likely coming within the year -- and Baez has been accused of having character issues as well. That being said, his hit-and-arm tools are already above average, and scouts think he'll grow into power, so he could become a prototypical mashing third baseman in time.
78. Mike Olt, third baseman, Texas Rangers
It's easy to get excited about Olt's power and patience, and he's likely to be an average defender at third base as well. He’s played only 169 career professional games, though, and none of those have come above High-A despite his relatively advanced age of 23. College players are supposed to perform well in the low minors, so Olt can't be considered an elite prospect until he proves himself against tougher competition.
It's easy to get excited about Olt's power and patience, and he's likely to be an average defender at third base as well. He’s played only 169 career professional games, though, and none of those have come above High-A despite his relatively advanced age of 23. College players are supposed to perform well in the low minors, so Olt can't be considered an elite prospect until he proves himself against tougher competition.
79. Nathan Eovoldi, starting pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers
Eovoldi was rushed to the majors in 2011, causing some to overrate him as MLB-ready and others to discount him since he didn't perform particularly well there. Still just 21, Eovoldi should spend most, if not all, of 2012 at Triple-A, where he can refine his control and his off-speed pitches. Eovoldi's strikeout and groundball rates lend themselves to success, though, and he should be a mid-rotation starter after another 120 minor league innings.
Eovoldi was rushed to the majors in 2011, causing some to overrate him as MLB-ready and others to discount him since he didn't perform particularly well there. Still just 21, Eovoldi should spend most, if not all, of 2012 at Triple-A, where he can refine his control and his off-speed pitches. Eovoldi's strikeout and groundball rates lend themselves to success, though, and he should be a mid-rotation starter after another 120 minor league innings.
80. Tyler Thornburg, starting pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers
A small right-hander with big-time strikeout stuff but some command issues, Thornburg is an intriguing prospect with a high floor as a reliever, but a low one as a starter. Just under six feet tall, Thornburg threw 136.2 innings between Single and High-A last season, striking out 160 batters in that time but walking 58 as well. If he proves to be durable and can keep the ball on the ground, he's a number two starter. If not, he's a strong candidate to be a future closer.
A small right-hander with big-time strikeout stuff but some command issues, Thornburg is an intriguing prospect with a high floor as a reliever, but a low one as a starter. Just under six feet tall, Thornburg threw 136.2 innings between Single and High-A last season, striking out 160 batters in that time but walking 58 as well. If he proves to be durable and can keep the ball on the ground, he's a number two starter. If not, he's a strong candidate to be a future closer.
81. Leonys Martin, outfielder, Texas Rangers
The recipient of a five-year, $15.5 million deal from the Rangers last May, Martin is a 23-year-old Cuban center fielder with above average speed and glove tools who has some potential with the bat as well. Martin lacks much power to this point in his career but some scouts believe he could grow into more as he matures. There are questions about Martin’s hit tool and patience, but his 11.1% K/BB rate in Double-A was encouraging. He should be in the majors for good by July.
82. Derek Norris, catcher, Oakland Athletics
Norris is one of the most polarizing prospects in the minors. One glance at his .210 average or 27.7% strikeout rate from a year ago, and it’s tempting to write him off. However, he walked in an outstanding 18.2% of his plate appearances, hit for power with 20 homeruns and was the victim of a low .251 BABIP. He’s unlikely to be a potential star, but catchers who can reach base at a .370 clip and hit for power are rare.
83. Jose Campos, starting pitcher, New York Yankees
An underrated component to the Jesus Montero-Michael Pineda trade, Campos pitched extraordinarily well in Low-A last season, posting 85 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 81.1 innings. Campos is still mostly a fastball pitcher at this point, and will need to develop his secondary pitches significantly. That being said, he already has impressive control and a durable build, and won’t turn 20 until July. Campos will move up to Single-A and try to increase his workload in 2012.
84. John Lamb, starting pitcher, Kansas City Royals
Lamb looked poised to cement himself as one of the game’s premier prospects in 2011, but instead threw just 35 innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. A 21-year-old lefthander with a low-90s fastball, plus changeup and solid curveball, Lamb still has enough potential to make the bottom of this list. He obviously comes with plenty of risk and can’t be considered a high-probability prospect, but if he rebounds all the way he profiles similarly to Cole Hamels. He should pitch again in the second half of 2012.
85. Justin Nicolino, starting pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays
This is an aggressive ranking for Nicolino given the incredibly small sample size with which there is to work, but the 2010 second round pick was lights out in his pro debut in 2011. Nicolino posted a 10.8% K/9 rate and a 1.9% BB/9 rate through 61 innings between Low and Single-A, and put up good groundball rates as well. That’s quite impressive for a 20-year-old lefty, and Nicolino will be an elite prospect should be perform well in Single-A in 2012.
86. George Springer, outfielder, Houston Astros
In terms of pure talent, Springer was arguably the second best college hitter in the 2011 draft, trailing onlyAnthony Rendon. With good hand-eye coordination, above average power and enough speed to man centerfield, Springer may be special if he puts it all together. He’s this low because of serious concerns about his mechanics, though, and he’s not as polished as many prospects his age are. With good coaching, he could through the system fast.
87. Noah Syndergaard, starting pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays
A first round pick by the Jays in 2010, Syndergaard was very impressive in a small sample size in 2011, posting a 10.4 K/9 rate and 2.7 BB/9 rate in 59 innings between rookie ball, Low-A and Single-A. Probability prevents Syndergaard from ranking higher, as he’s just 19 and has under 100 professional innings to his name, but his size and stuff give him number one starter potential. It’s not hard to envision him as a Top 30 prospect at this time next year.
88. Matt Barnes, starting pitcher, Boston Red Sox
Barnes didn’t get quite as much national press as fellow collegiate arms such as Gerrit Cole, Trevor Baur or Sonny Gray, but was a steal for the Red Sox as the nineteenth pick in the draft. Barnes has a solid combination of upside and probability, and has a frame that suggests he’ll be a rotation workhorse in the future. He doesn’t have the same type of fastball, but he’s not an entirely dissimilar player than the Mets’ Matt Harvey– now a Top 50 prospect -- was when he was drafted in 2010.
89. Joe Wieland, starting pitcher, San Diego Padres
One of the “safest” pitching prospects in the minors, Wieland looks to be a very strong bet to become a No. 3 or 4 starter within the year. He has limited upside, though, thanks to pedestrian stuff and the lack of a true out-pitch. Wieland has outstanding control and a durable build, but posted average strikeout and groundball ratios once he reached Double-A. Wieland’s strengths play well to his future home ballpark of Petco, and he may be able to pitch above what his talent would normally allow.
90. Allen Webster, starting pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers
A prototypical right-hander, Webster had an up-and-down 2011 season, inducing a high number of groundballs and posting an acceptable walk rate but giving up a ton of hits while seeing his strikeout rate fall upon reaching Double-A. His advanced statistics suggest he was partially the victim of some bad luck, and he’ll still be young for his level even if he repeats Double-A all season. His ceiling is as a mid-rotation workhorse who will keep the ball on the ground.
91. Robbie Grossman, outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
After a fairly uninspiring first two professional seasons, Grossman broke out in 2011, reaching base at a .418 clip with 49 extra base hits (XBH) and 24 steals in 616 plate appearances at High-A. Grossman was repeating the level, but was only 21 for the entire season and the Florida State League is a tough place for hitters. Grossman needs to add a touch more power and improve his steal rate, but the potential is there for him to become a Nick Markakis-like right fielder who should be ready by mid-2013.
92. Jedd Gyorko, third baseman, San Diego Padres
Gyorko had a great statistical season in 2011, but he was a little old for High-A, didn’t hit for much power in Double-A and benefited greatly from an absurdly high BABIP. It’s tough not to believe in Gyorko’s hit tool, but pretty easy to be skeptical about his glove and power. Gyorko doesn’t have the ideal baseball body and likely won’t spend all of his career at third base, but he can handle the position for now. He could develop into aDavid Freese-like player.
93. Mason Williams, outfielder, New York Yankees
Williams had a phenomenal first professional season in 2011, showing four tools and impressing with a .395 OBP in Low-A. Williams snagged 28 bases as well, and projects as a plus defender in center field. Scouts think he’ll grow into some power, but it wasn’t a part of his game last season, as he hit just three homers and 11 doubles. Williams should start the year in full season ball as a 20-year-old and needs to work on his breaking ball recognition.
94. Tyrell Jenkins, starting pitcher, St. Louis Cardinals
An athletic pitcher who the Cardinals signed away from a football scholarship at Baylor in 2010, Jenkins has a solid first professional season, striking out 55 in 56 innings with a 59% groundball rate in rookie ball. It’s all about projection with Jenkins, and his mid-90s fastball, repeatable delivery and developing secondary pitches give him top of the rotation potential. He ranks this low only because he’s unlikely to see the majors for at least three more seasons
95. Cheslor Cuthbert, third baseman, Kansas City Royals
Cuthbert held his own as an 18-year-old in Single-A last season, hitting .267 with a .345 OBP, eight homers and 13 doubles. Those numbers aren’t terrible impressive, but consider that Cuthbert could repeat the level in 2012 and still be young for the league. Cuthbert profiles as a prototypical power-hitting third baseman who scouts hope can grow into 25-homer pop and learn to be more patient. Cuthbert clearly tired at the end of last season and needs to adjust to the rigors of playing 130-plus games per year.
96. Chad Bettis, starting pitcher, Colorado Rockies
A second round pick in 2010, Bettis dominated in his first full professional season in 2012, posting a 9.76 K/9 rate and 2.73 FIP while issuing an acceptable 45 walks in 169.2 innings. Bettis was 22 and in High-A, so a good performance is to be expected, and he delivered. Bettis profiles as a mid-rotation starter thanks to his lack of a dependable third pitch, and may wind up in the bullpen, where he spent most of his time in college.
97. Jessie Biddle, starting pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies
Biddle has some of the best pure stuff of any lefty in the minors, and took big steps forward in 2011 in terms of improving his command. The Phillies’ first round pick in 2010, Biddle posted an 8.39 K/9 and 3.38 FIP in 133 innings at Single-A last season. His 4.47 BB/9 was a major improvement from 2011, but he still clearly needs to work on his command. He’ll pitch all of 2012 at age 20 and is several years away, but he has ace potential.
98. Mikie Mahtook, outfielder, Tampa Bay Rays
A moderate five-tool outfielder in the Shane Victorino mold, Mathook was a steal for the Rays, who nabbed him with the 31st pick in the 2012 draft. None of Mahtook’s tools are plus but none are worse than average either, and his up-tempo style of play allowed him to be a force at LSU last season. Mahtook should begin 2012 in Single-A, but could be ready to compete for a spot in the majors by 2014. He has a moderate ceiling but a high floor.
99. Ryan Lavarnway, catcher/designated hitter, Boston Red Sox
Lavarnway is regularly compared to Mike Napoli, and while it’s clear he’s never going to be a good defensive catcher his bat doesn’t get enough credit. In over 600 at-bats between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors, Lavarnway hit 34 homers and 25 doubles, and posted consistently high on-base percentages until reaching the big leagues as well. He fits into a major league lineup right now, and will be an asset in any lineup if he can become anything better than a liability behind the plate.
100. Jeurys Familia, starting pitcher, New York Mets
Familia’s numbers indicate that he should rank much higher on this list, as the 22-year-old righty stuck out over a better per inning in Double-A last season while supporting a 3.96 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark. Familia’s ground ball and walk rates were less than stellar, which is part of the reason he finds himself just barely making this list. The biggest cause for concern, though, is his delivery, which looks to make him an injury waiting to happen. If he can stay healthy he’s a number three starter or shutdown reliever, but that’s a gigantic if.
