2013 Top 150 Fantasy Prospects: 1-50

Welcome to the initial reveal of PTP's Top 150 Fantasy Prospects list: the culmination of months of research, weeks of organization and days of writing on over 400 minor leaguers and their relative Fantasy worth. 

Lists such as these are exceedingly difficult to create, as upside, probability, organizational depth charts all weight into these rankings, as does a combination of in-person scouting, Internet research and statistical analysis. Take all of those factors and add in the uniqueness of Fantasy baseball, and there's plenty to consider with each ranking.

Everyone who makes lists like this immediately has a few regrets once they finally commit to a final copy, but overall I'm proud of the months and months of work this represents, and I hope you can use it to your benefit this season.

As always, players must be under MLB's rookie requirements (130 AB, 50 IP) to qualify, and must be signed with an MLB organization. Feedback is not only welcome, but encouraged.

The middle third of my list is presented below. Once all three segments have been revealed, I will post the complete rankings -- plus the tiers I use to separate these players -- on one page. You can check out prospects 101-150 here and players 51-100 here.

Nick Castellanos could find himself batting in one of the majors' most potent lineups this season. Photo by lakelandlocal.

1) Oscar Taveras (OF, STL)

From a purely statistical standpoint, Taveras’ frequent comparison to Vladimir Guerrero could look pretty accurate in his prime. I can’t give higher praise.  

2) Jurickson Profar (SS/2B, TEX)

Profar’s name would be at the top if this were an MLB prospect list, and while a good amount of his value is tied up in his defense he has elite Fantasy tools as well.

3) Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS)

Players who hit in the middle of the order and play in the middle of the diamond are the rarest commodities in the game, and Bogaerts is poised to become one.  

4) Dylan Bundy (RHSP, BAL)

The “safest” high school pitcher to come along in years has all the ingredients to be a Top 10 Fantasy starter for a very long time, though he may pitch in relief in 2013.

5) Wil Myers (OF, TB)

He and Evan Longoria should bat back-to-back for the next six-plus seasons, and Myers is among the safest bets on this list to become an impact offensive force.

6) Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN)

Hamilton has the ability to become Fantasy’s most disruptive player, as selecting him could come to all but guarantee you at least a Top 5 finish in steals.

7) Gerrit Cole (RHSP, PIT)

Owner of arguably the best pure stuff in the minors, Cole is a lock to rack up strikeouts, and could be the best pitcher in the game if he refines his command.

8) Shelby Miller (RHSP, STL)

He’s not as flashy as many other top starter prospects, but Miller’s floor is as a No. 3 starter and his upside is as a true ace. He’s ready now and should start 2013 in MLB.

9) Taijuan Walker (RHSP, SEA)

Blessed with elite athleticism and two plus pitches, only command and control have the ability to derail Walker’s path to Fantasy and MLB stardom.

10) Jose Fernandez (RHSP, MIA)

Big stuff, big frame, big intimidator: the ingredients are all here for one of the most dominating and exciting pitchers in the game.   

11) Miguel Sano (3B, MIN)

No one in the minors has more raw power than Sano, a prototypical cleanup hitter who’ll provide big homer totals even if he has to move off of third base.

12) Javier Baez (SS, CHC)

Armed with legendary bat speed, terrific hand-eye coordination and a chance to stay at shortstop for at least a few seasons, Baez could be a Top 5 name next year.

13) Zack Wheeler (SP, NYM)

With gaudy stuff and improving command, Wheeler looks poised to fill his long-standing promise as a No. 2 SP, with ace-like performances coming in his prime.

14) Nick Castellanos (OF/3B, DET)

The move to the outfield hurts his value, but Castellanos’ bat can play anywhere on the field and it looks like it will get the chance to do so at some point in 2013.

15) Christian Yelich (OF, MIA)

There’s not much Yelich can’t do from a Fantasy perspective, as the high-floored outfielder gets on base, hits for average and some power and can run a little too.

16) Anthony Rendon (3B, WAS)

A healthy Rendon has the potential to make a ranking this conservative look silly, yet he seems just as likely to miss more time with injuries as well.

17) Trevor Bauer (RHSP, CLE)

Bauer may not be an ace but even a modest uptick in command will see him profile as a high-strikeout No. 2 SP, and one the Diamondbacks will regret giving away.

18) Tyler Skaggs (LHSP, ARI)

Don’t expect Skaggs to post gaudy strikeout numbers like he did in the minors, but do expect him to be an excellent Fantasy option beginning in 2013.

19) Kevin Gausman (RHSP, BAL)

With Bundy and the enigmatic Gausman, there is a distinct possibility that the Orioles landed the best pitcher in the draft two years in a row.

20) Jonathan Singleton (1B, HOU)

While I think his struggles against lefties should receive more note, I still believe in Singleton as a classic power-hitting 1B at a time when the position is shallow.

21) Jameson Taillon (RHSP, PIT)

Some like him more than this but I continue to view Taillon as more of a workhorse No. 2 SP than an ace, which is still a good thing. It’s time to push him aggressively.

22) Mike Olt (3B/1B, TEX)

Everyone spends so much time talking about what Olt can’t do that they may miss out on a good defensive 3B with 25-homer pop, though an org change is likely.

23) Travis d’Arnaud (C, NYM)

I agree that d’Arnaud has the potential to hit 20 bombs a year with a decent average, but I wouldn’t expect production quite at that level right away.

24) Byron Buxton (OF, MIN)

He’s eons away but if you want to dream on the next Fantasy toolshed along the lines of an Andrew McCutchen or Jacoby Ellsbury, Buxton is your man.

25) Carlos Correa (SS, HOU)

We often assume that big prospects will move off of SS, but as we’ve seen with Bogaerts and Baez that’s not always the case, and Correa has a shot to stick.

26) Addison Russell (SS, OAK)

Russell has a chance to perform as a true six-category Fantasy monster at shortstop, and no 2012 draftee had a better professional debut.

27) Jorge Soler (OF, CHC)

We need more of a U.S. sample size from Soler, but so far he’s been largely as advertised, flashing all five tools and big Fantasy potential.

28) Mike Zunino (C, SEA)

Expectations are sky high for Zunino after an outstanding professional debut, but Fantasy owners should see a good Top 10 option here, not an outright star.

29) Gary Sanchez (C, NYY)

Sanchez has significantly higher upside than Zunino, but the law of probability dictates we must rank him one slot lower here: some similarities to Carlos Santana.

30) Oswaldo Arcia (OF, MIN)

Sometimes lost amid the big names in the Twins systems, Arcia is nearly ready now and should hit near the middle of a lineup for a long time.

31) Nolan Arenado (3B, COL)

Arenado’s 2012 wasn’t horrible -- it was just average -- which looks better still considering his age, so I remain unsure as to why I should jump off the bandwagon.

32) Kyle Zimmer (RHSP, KC)

The Royals have had a tough time developing starter prospects lately, but Zimmer is so athletic and has such a fresh arm they may not be able to screw him up.

33) Danny Hultzen (LHSP, SEA)

Hultzen’s performance and scouting support didn’t seem to match up in 2012 but he has enough talent and upside to keep him high on this list.

34) Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE)

Lindor’s feel for the game and defense are exciting, but they’re irrelevant in the Fantasy world, where Lindor profiles as a slower Elvis Andrus.

35) Julio Tehean (RHSP, ATL)

Even if he’s not the second coming of Pedro Martinez, Teheran still has plenty going for him with a real shot at MLB playing time and the upside of a No. 2 starter.

36) Archie Bradley (RHSP, ARI)

Scouts still rave about his stuff and he has a perfect frame, but another season of below-average command and control will knock Bradley down a few pegs.

37) Aaron Sanchez (RHSP, TOR)

Another flame-throwing righty with big time stuff but questionable control, some mainstream sources consider Sanchez one of the best young RHP in the minors.

38) Noah Syndergaard (RHSP, NYM)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Syndergaard’s impressive pure stuff and enormous potential are sullied only by his weaker command. 

39) Bubba Starling (OF, KC)

There may be no minor leaguer who’s ceiling and floor are farther apart, as Starling could turn into everything from Matt Kemp to Chris Young to Brett Jackson.

40) Chris Archer (RHSP, TB)

Archer has always had the stuff to pitch near the front of a rotation, and now that it appears his control has improved he should get the chance to do so in 2013.

41) Trevor Rosenthal (RHP, STL)

Rosenthal went from a relative unknown to a popular sleeper pick with his dynamic postseason, but the Cardinals plan on starting him out in the bullpen.

42) George Springer (OF, HOU)

Springer’s profile hasn’t changed much over the past few years: if his approach doesn’t limit his bat he’s a potential All-Star, but the risk involved is high.

43) Alen Hanson (2B/SS, PIT)

Perhaps 2012’s best pop up prospect, Hanson has the intriguing upside of a player who can contribute to all Fantasy categories while manning a MI spot.

44) Carlos Martinez (RHSP, STL)

Martinez deserves to rank higher on this list based on the quality of his stuff, but his dip in strikeouts last season and injury history have me a bit down on him.

45) Aaron Hicks (OF, MIN)

It seems like we’ve been waiting for Hicks forever but he’s still just 23 and looks like he will win the Twins starting CF job amidst a strong Spring Training.  

46) Brian Goodwin (OF, WAS)

Goodwin is a toolsy center fielder who should get on base often enough to hit leadoff or second in a good lineup, but has enough pop to hit further down the order too.

47) Delino DeShields (2B, HOU)

The Astros were widely panned when they took DeShields with the 8^th overall pick in 2010, but a huge 2012 campaign (101 SB) has quieted some of the doubters.

48) Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT)

Polanco demonstrated an impressive blend of a plus hit tool and mature approach in 2012 and I’m sold on his potential as a future 20 homer, 30 steal threat.

49) David Dahl (OF, COL)

There’s no shortage of love for Dahl in the prospect community and it’s not difficult to see why, although you should keep in mind that he’s at least three years away.

50) Lucas Giolito (RHSP, WAS)

This is an aggressive ranking for Giolito, but on upside alone he’s arguably one of the ten most exciting starters in the minors, and TJ recovery rate is high.