Friday, March 29, 2013

2013 Top 150 Fantasy Prospects: 51-100


Welcome to the initial reveal of PTP's Top 150 Fantasy Prospects list: the culmination of months of research, weeks of organization and days of writing on over 400 minor leaguers and their relative Fantasy worth. 

Lists such as these are exceedingly difficult to create, as upside, probability, organizational depth charts all weight into these rankings, as does a combination of in-person scouting, Internet research and statistical analysis. Take all of those factors and add in the uniqueness of Fantasy baseball, and there's plenty to consider with each ranking.

Everyone who makes lists like this immediately has a few regrets once they finally commit to a final copy, but overall I'm proud of the months and months of work this represents, and I hope you can use it to your benefit this season.

As always, players must be under MLB's rookie requirements (130 AB, 50 IP) to qualify, and must be signed with an MLB organization. Feedback is not only welcome, but encouraged.

The middle third of my list is presented below. Once all three segments have been revealed, I will post the complete rankings -- plus the tiers I use to separate these players -- on one page. You can check out prospects 101-150 here.

Jedd Gyorko won't be a second baseman forever, but he'll provide plenty of value for Fantasy owners while he qualifies there. Photo by SD Dirk

51) Mason Williams (OF, NYY)
A big portion of Williams’ value comes from his defense, but he also has an intriguing Desmond Jennings-like combination of speed and power potential.

52) Jackie Bradley Jr., (OF, BOS)
Bradley’s floor is huge in OBP leagues, but don’t sleep on his potential to contribute in runs, steals, and average in standard formats as well.

53) Jedd Gyorko (2B/3B, SD)
Another player who ranks here due to his floor, Gyorko’s experiment at 2B likely won’t last past a season or two, but he’ll be a good bat there while he qualifies.


54) Roman Quinn (SS, PHI)
There’s a good chance Quinn is the second-fastest player in the minors, and while his hit tool is not as advanced as Billy Hamilton’s he has a better shot to stick at SS.

55) Kaleb Cowart (3B, LAA)
I think Cowart profiles more as an above average regular at third base than a star in the making, but if the hit tool plays up a bit I could be underselling him.

56) Max Fried (LHSP, SD)
Freid became one of the highest-ceilinged left-handers in the minors the moment he signed, and while he’ll take a while to develop his Fantasy upside in Petco is scary.

57) Casey Kelly (RHSP, SD)*
Many are down on Kelly since he hasn’t developed into the ace some expected, but his control, groundball tendencies and ballpark make him attractive for our game.

58) Kyle Gibson (RHSP, MIN)
I’ve been high on Gibson since he was drafted and am buying into the reports that his stuff is all the way back after Tommy John surgery. He could make 20 starts.

59) Matt Barnes (RHSP, BOS)
Barnes has a higher upside than a few of the pitchers listed above him, but I’ve seen enough concerns around how he tired at the end of 2012 to dock him here.

60) Jake Marisnick (OF, MIA)
Marisnick’s 2012 season wasn’t pretty but I’m still in love with his five-category upside, though I acknowledge that substantial risk exists here as well.

61) Taylor Guerrieri (RHSP, TB)
A strong 2012 put to bed some whispers of maturity issues with Guerrieri, as well as highlighted the outstanding natural stuff that gives him No. 2 SP upside.

62) Alex Meyer (SP, MIN)
Meyer doesn’t fit the Twins typical pitcher prospect profile in that he throws hard and has upside, but fans up north should realize this is a good thing.

63) Kyle Crick (RHSP, SF)
The Giants’ ability to draft and develop premium pitching is renowned for good reason, and Crick is the latest in a long line of potential frontend starters.

64) Courtney Hawkins (OF, CHW)
The best prospect the White Sox have had for the past several seasons, Hawkins is still several years away but the natural power can make you drool.

65) Albert Almora (OF, CHC)
A better MLB prospect than a Fantasy one, I still expect Almora to be a solid No. 3 Fantasy outfielder who contributes modestly in all categories.

66) Yaisel Puig (OF, LAD)
Puig is difficult to rank given his lack of experience in the U.S., but most who have seen him so far seem convinced that the tools are real.

67) Trevor Story (SS, COL)
Story doesn’t do anything well but has no glaring weaknesses either, and that makes him a potential All-Star if he stays at shortstop.

68) Allen Webster (RHSP, BOS)
Webster is another pitcher who could outperform his ranking with ease, but I’m not entirely sold he avoids a move to the bullpen, where he’d be dominant.

69) Leonys Martin (OF, TEX)
It’s a bit peculiar to me that Martin doesn’t get more love in Fantasy circles given his proximity to the majors and stolen base potential. He’s a Fantasy factor for 2013.

70) Adam Eaton (OF, ARI)**
Eaton came out of nowhere in 2012 to demonstrate a mature approach, ability to get on base and baserunning smarts. He looks to have a fulltime job for 2013.

71) Tyler Austin (OF, NYY)
Austin is more of a good No. 5 or 6 hitter than a star to me, which isn’t an insult but will probably be taken as one by every Yankees fan in existence.

72) Rymer Liriano (OF, SD)
I had Liriano ranked about 40 spots higher before the announcement that he’d miss all of 2013 with Tommy John: he’s not the type of player who can miss reps.

73) Tony Cingrani (LHSP, CIN)
What I wrote about Webster applies to Cingrani as well, although I think the former is a safer bet to start while the latter’s stuff is a bit more dynamic.

74) Yordano Ventura (RHSP, KC)
In some ways Ventura is now where Trevor Rosenthal was a year ago, but he’ll have to keep proving his doubters wrong if he wants to stay a starter.

75) Wily Peralta (RHSP, MIL)
I understand that his raw stuff is excellent and that he’ll rack up the strikeouts, but I worry that his WHIP will make him an Ervin Santana-like Fantasy gamble.

76) Jake Odorizzi (SP, TB)
It took me longer than many but I’ve finally conceded that Odorizzi is more of a mid-rotation starter than a future anchor, albeit one who is MLB ready now.

77) Justin Nicolino (LHSP, MIA)
The comparisons to Cole Hamels are laughable, but Nicolino is a reasonably safe bet to be a productive No. 3 starter for a long time, a la Mark Buehlre

78) James Paxton (LHSP, SEA)
Paxton’s upside is significantly higher than Nicolino’s, but I remain unconvinced that his command will ever come around to the point where his WHIP is tolerable.

79) Adalberto Mondesi (SS, KC)
If you’re looking to round out your dynasty league team with a potential high-impact sleeper you could do worse than Mondesi, whose potential at SS is huge.

80) Slade Heathcott (OF, NYY)
Basically Brett Lawrie in the outfield, Heathcott’s upside dictates a higher ranking but at some point staying on the field becomes a skill, and it’s one he lacks.

81) Martin Perez (LHSP, TEX)
I fully admit that Perez is an enigma, and if you want him ranked 30 slots higher or lower I can’t really argue with you either way, though the injury hurts him.

82) Jonathan Schoop (2B/3B, BAL)
Schoop has been pushed too aggressively to this point in his career and needs to catch his breath at AA in 2013 in order to reach his Top 10 Fantasy 2B ceiling.

83) Matt Davidson (3B, ARI)
I still think Davidson can be a productive major leaguer and useful Fantasy player for his power, but it’s tough to see where he fits in to the Dbacks’ long-term plans.

84) Daniel Corcino (RHSP, CIN)
Corcino is another potential mid-rotation SP, but he ranks lower than some others thanks to his lack of a second dynamic pitch. Don’t buy the Johnny Cueto comps.

85) Robert Stephenson (RHSP, CIN)
This ranking makes it look like I’m a Stephenson doubter, but really I just want to see more from him before I acknowledge what is probably No. 2 SP upside.

86) Kolten Wong (2B, STL)
Based on tools alone I don’t like that I have Wong ranked this highly, but he could be batting in one of MLB’s most potent lineups soon and will hit for good averages.

87) Michael Wacha (RHSP, STL)
There are some big Wacha lovers out there but I want to see the velocity play up in longer outings as a starter before I shoot him up these rankings.

88) Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA)
Somewhat overlooked in what is now a very deep system, Ozuna will have to fight for playing time in the OF but has Josh Reddick-like upside.

89) Eddie Rosario (2B/OF, MIN)
Rosario has a very unique profile but that doesn’t mean Fantasy owners should shy away, as his skill set is appealing for someone with the potential to play at 2B.

90) Arodys Vizcaino (RHRP, CHC)
The first reliever to make the list, I sincerely hope the Cubs let Vizcaino pitch out of the pen where his arm will be protected and his Fantasy potential will remain high.

91) Avisail Garcia (OF, DET)
I was not a Garcia believer until last season and while I still have some reservations about the approach the 20 HR/20 SB upside is tough to deny.

92) Nick Franklin (2B/SS, SEA)
Franklin’s stock has taken a hit in recent years as his profile has gone from great SS to good 2B, but there’s still sneaky pop in the bat once he ditches switch-hitting.

93) Stryker Trahan (C, ARI)
An aggressive ranking to be sure, but Trahan is the type of catching prospect whose bat is so good he could be moved to the OF just to accelerate his time table.

94) J.R. Graham (RHSP, ATL)
Graham doesn’t profile as a high-K SP and is a better MLB prospect than a Fantasy one, but he’s moving through the minors quickly and should post good WHIPs.

95) Andrew Heaney (LHSP, MIA)
Heaney has more stuff than your typical quick-to-the-majors college lefty and he doesn’t profile too differently from how Drew Pomeranz did a few years back.

96) Joey Gallo (3B, TEX)
I admit that the strikeout and contact concerns scare me and he’s not a lock to stay at 3B, but Gallo’s already on the short list of best power prospects in the game.

97) Luis Sardinas (SS, TEX)
He’d get more attention in a shallower organization, but Sardinas has all the requisite tools to blossom into a Top 10 Fantasy SS, though he’s likely a trade chip.

98) Michael Choice (OF, OAK)
I’m not yet ready to give up on Choice, who was having an excellent 2012 season before he broke his hamate bone. That could sap his power in early 2013 too.

99) Dorssys Paulino (INF, CLE)
Continuing a proud Cleveland tradition of MIs with weird first names, Paulino’s stock is down a bit here as he’ll likely have to move to 2B in this organization.

100) Maikel Franco (3B, PHI)
Franco is the rare power-hitting prospect who’s not hindered by a poor approach and he has a decent shot to stay at 3B despite Bengie Molina-type speed.

* List completed before Kelly's TJ surgery. He would no longer be on my Top 150.
** List completed before Eaton's injury. His rank would not change much. 

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