My second piece in this series was going to cover a swap of Mike Olt and Zack Greinke, but then the Angels stepped in and ruined my plans,
landing the Brewers’ ace for a package built around Jean Segura instead.
Instead, PTP examines one of the most popular offensive
players on the trading block – Chase
Headley – and how he’d fit with the AL’s most surprising playoff contender,
the Oakland Athletics.
Few people thought the A’s would be buyers when trade season
rolled around, but in Headley they can add a player who helps both now and for
the next several seasons.
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| Chase Headley would make the A's better both now and for the next several seasons. Photo by SD Dirk. |
SAN DIEGO PADRES trade Chase
Headley (3B) to OAKLAND ATHLETICS for Brad
Peacock (SP, AAA), Grant Green (UT,
AAA), Fautino De Los Santos (RP,
AAA) and Michael Taylor (OF, AAA)
Underlying Logic
The Padres are 15 games under .500 in the middle stages of a
rebuilding phase, and while Headley is their best player, he’s not a franchise
cornerstone or true building block. The earliest one can reasonably see San
Diego competing is in 2014, which is the last deal of Headley’s contract. If
they can get a big return for him now in a seller’s market, they’d be wise to
so.
The Athletics find themselves in a position no one predicted
when the season began – they currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Tigers for
the AL’s second Wild Card spot. Oakland was also viewed as a rebuilding club,
but thanks to good pitching and some unforeseen sources of power, they’re in a
position to buy headed into July 31.
Why It Works – San Diego
The Padres don’t have a great deal of good players from
which to deal from. Headley and Cameron
Maybin are their only regulars who have 5 WAR upside, and Carlos Quentin, Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso may be the only players
on the roster capable of nearing 3 WAR.
As stated above, by the time San Diego aims to be a
competitive club in 2014, Headley will be in the last year of his deal, meaning
now is as good a time as ever to trade him. Teams are likely to pay a hefty
price for Headley’s two-plus years of team control, and the Padres can continue
to build what has quickly become one of the game’s best farm systems.
Peacock is a potential mid-rotation starter – something the
organization suddenly needs thanks to an incredible streak of injuries to the
likes of Corey Luebke, Andrew Cashner, Joe Wieland, Casey Kelly,
Robbie Erlin and others. Green is a unique player in that he
lacks any elite skills and a defensive home, but he does everything fairly
well. San Diego can use him at second, third or right field as they build toward
the future. De Los Santos is a lottery ticket, but his easy plus velocity means
he could carve out a role in medium-leverage relief. Taylor’s future doesn’t
lie in Oakland thanks to his struggles in the majors and the A’s’ enviable
outfield depth, but he can still be a useful major league role player, and has
the upside of a starter.
Why It Works – Oakland
The Athletics are in a precarious position in that they’re
playing above their true talent level, but have positioned themselves to make a
run in 2012. Gutting their farm system for a rental makes little sense, as
they’re entering what should be the start of a few competitive seasons. But if
they stand pat, they may not have enough talent to make the playoffs.
In this regard, Headley is the perfect compromise. He’s
under team control through 2014, and the Athletics should be competitive over
the next few years as their farm system continues to produce highly regarded
players. He also provides a huge immediate upgrade over Brandon Inge, and should bat second or third in Oakland’s lineup,
with mashers Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick following him. He could
add a win-and-a-half to the 2012 A’s, with several more coming in the next two
years.
The Athletics are giving up prospects, but they’re largely
dealing from areas of surplus. The emergences of Dan Straily and A.J. Griffin
make Peacock expendable. Reddick, Cespedes, Seth Smith, Michael Choice and
others mean Taylor has no future in the organization. Losing Green hurts, but
his upside is basically as a Headley-like player, and he’s far from a sure bet
to reach it. And De Los Santos is the type of player organizations can
sacrifice when pursuing a playoff run.
Why It Doesn’t Work –
San Diego
As mentioned earlier, the Padres lack much star power and
this trade won’t help that. Peacock profiles as a No. 3/4 starter, not an ace.
Green has a decently high floor, but he may just end up as a super-sub in the Marco Scutaro mold. De Los Santos’ command issues will
likely preclude him from working as a set-up man or closer, and Taylor’s likely
a fourth outfielder on a good team.
In essence, this is quantity over quality. San Diego may
prefer to swap Headley for one high upside prospect – say, Jon Schoop of the Orioles or Tyler
Austin of the Yankees – rather than settle for high-probability guys like
Peacock and Green. They may insist that Oakland includes A.J. Cole, who has No. 2 starter upside but a low floor, over
Peacock.
Finally, dealing your best player is never easy, even if
your best player isn’t a superstar and you’re a bad team. The Padres can
replace Headley with Jedd Gyorko,
one of their better offensive prospects, but there’s no question this deal
makes them worse. If San Diego thinks they have any chance of competing sooner
than expected, holding on to Headley, an affordable, above average player,
makes sense.
Why It Doesn’t Work –
Oakland
While the A’s are dealing from prospect areas of depth,
they’re still dealing prospects, and it’s not hard to argue that’s not what
they should be doing at this stage of their rebuilding. Straily and Griffin have
had great seasons, but with the attrition rate of pitching prospects as high as
it is, you can never have too many. The A’s are short on infield prospects, so
trading a potential 2B/3B in Green hurts. And while Taylor and De Los Santos
aren’t integral to Oakland’s future, they’re not devoid of value.
The A’s need a shortstop more than a third baseman – Brandon Inge is bad, but he does
provide power and defense. Scott
Sizemore should be healthy next season, and there’s a chance Green could be
Oakland’s third baseman of the future as well. Upgrading Cliff Pennington, who’s both bad and injured, may be Oakland’s real
intent at the deadline.
Plus, even if the A’s add Headley, they’d have a hard time advancing
in the playoffs. They don’t have a starter to match up with a Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander or David
Price in a one-game playoff, and they don’t have the offense to match up
with Texas or New York in a longer series. The playoffs are always a crapshoot,
but on paper the A’s would be far and away the worst AL team to make the
postseason – if they manage to get there. They may be better off hoarding
prospects for now and attempting to make a deal for a true superstar in the
near future.
Conclusion
It’s not a perfect deal for either side, but it serves a
purpose for both teams. San Diego continues to build on its enviable prospect
depth while trading a player who’s unlikely to be around the next time they’re
competitive. Oakland improves for 2012 without mortgaging their future, as
Headley is under control for two more seasons.
Neither team gets a great deal of upside. The Padres may
prefer to hold out for an A prospect rather than one B prospect and a bunch of
B-/C+ level guys, while Oakland may prefer a true offensive superstar to
Headley, who’s more a good complimentary piece.
But both organizations accomplish something important – they
improve their odds during their respective windows of contention. Peacock and
Green are likely to be everyday players by 2014, and Taylor and De Los Santos
can be role players. Headley is a good player right now, and if Oakland can
stay relevant for a few seasons, he should be an asset for the next two-plus
years.
If the A’s and Padres made this deal, it’d be clear that
both organizations understand where they are in their rebuilding phases.
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