Overall Impressions: The Rockies possess one of the most unique farm systems to assess from a Fantasy perspective, as their home ballpark seriously hinders the value of pitchers and boosts the value of hitters. Thankfully for Fantasy owners, those strengths match up well with many of Colorado's top prospects right now, as there's a nice mix of potential offensive Fantasy contributors strewn throughout the Rockies system. The Rockies were also boosted by a strong 2012 draft that saw them nab the second, 11th and 15th players on this list. You can skip this entry if you're looking to improve your WHIP or ERA, but if offense is your cup of tea there's plenty of promise here.
Strengths: Positional depth. Seven of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 15 prospects on the list are hitters, which is partially due to the Coors effect and partially due to their natural talent. There's a nice mix of power hitters and speeders, high risk/reward and low ceiling/safe players and talents at many different positions.
Weaknesses: Pitching. Colorad's developed an affinity for soft-tossing lefties, such as Tyler Anderson, Edwar Cabrera, and Jayson Aquino and such player are unlikely to contribute much to the Fantasy world. Players such as Chad Bettis, Tyler Matzek and Peter Tago have more upside, but are not good bets to succeed.
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| Kyle Parker's impressive power would make him an attractive Fantasy option should he come to call right field at Coors his home. Photo by mwlguide. |
COLORADO ROCKIES TOP 10 LIST
Categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, OBP
The Arenado hate coming off of one mediocre year is a little intense, especially considering his home ballpark. Maybe he’s not a star, but Arenado’s hit and power tools have plus potential and he should be ready by June. Don’t give up on him, and expect a significant 2013 impact as well once Chris Nelson falls back to Earth. ETA: 2013
2) David Dahl, OF
Categories: AVG, SB, R, HR, OBP, RBI
As down as many are on Arenado they seem equally high on Dahl, who was indeed impressive in his professional debut. Questions remain about the power tool’s ceiling, but he can hit, he can run and he can get on base. Some think he may swap speed for pop as he ages and move to an outfield corner. He's far away, but obviously promising. ETA: 2015
3) Trevor Story, SS
Categories: HR, RBI, SB, R
Story has no true outstanding tool, but he doesn’t have any weaknesses either, although his K rate could preclude high averages. Still, shortstops with 20 homer and 15 SB potential don’t grow on trees, and scouts love Story’s makeup. He may have to move to second base to accomodate Troy Tulowitzki, though Tulo can't stay at short forever. ETA: 2015
4) Tim Wheeler, OF
Categories: HR, RBI, SB, R
This is an aggressive ranking, but Wheeler should be fully recovered from his hamate bone injury and start showing some pop again in 2013. He profiles as a slower David Murphy to me, and the Coors bump makes him Fantasy relevant. If a regular Rockies outfielder suffers and injury (and there's a good chance), don't be afraid to pounce on Wheeler in redraft leagues. ETA: 2013
5) Kyle Parker, OF
Categories: HR, AVG, RBI, R
Parker would be lower on a MLB prospect list, but in this org, anyone with power is more intriguing from a Fantasy sense than any non-elite pitcher. Parker has an average hit tool and above average power, and it’s just starting to show in games. He's not a star and he'll never be a stolen base threat, but the ceiling as a good regular is there. ETA: 2014
6) Chad Bettis, RHRP
Categories: SV, K, HLD, ERA
Bettis was a candidate to move to the bullpen even before his shoulder injury robbed him of 2012, and such a transition should be a no-brainer now. His outstanding fastball/slider combo gives him high-K closer potential, though his transition to reliever hurts an organization short on pitching depth. ETA: 2014
7) Will Swanner, C/1B
Categories: HR, RBI
Why is a catcher who hit .305/.390/.536 as a 20 year old this low on the list? Because he can’t really catch, and because his stats were aided by a .398 BABIP. Unfortunately, the best case scenario for Swanner is as a Ryan Lavarnway-type offense-first backstop, but he's an even worse defender than the Sox' defensively-challenged Sophomore. ETA: 2015
8) Tyler Matzek, LHSP
Categories: K, W, HLD
When your BB/9 “improves” to 6.01, you might have a command problem. Matzek’s upside remains high because of his stuff, but he’s extremely unlikely to reach it. He gets one more year on the list, but odds are he washes out. If you've held onto him this long in a league with under 200 prospects kept, it's time to cut bait. ETA: 2014
9) Rafael Ortega, OF
Categories: SB, R, AVG
Ortega makes this list for one reason and one reason only: his speed. Widely regarded as a plus-plus runner and plus defender, questions remain about Ortega’s hit tool, as his .284 A+ average last year came in a very strong offensive setting. From a Fantasy perspective he just needs to reach base often enough to run. ETA: 2014
10) Tyler Anderson, LHSP
Categories: W, WHIP
The Rockies system is very top heavy, as is evidenced by Anderson making the list. He’s a decently safe bet to reach the majors, but he profiles as a backend starter. Put a player like him in Coors, and even NL Only leaguers should use caution. Hopefully some day the Rockies will learn that soft-tossing lefties aren't suited for their home environment. ETA: 2014
THE NEXT FIVE
11) Eddie Butler, RHSP: Perhaps the best bet to be a productive, usable Fantasy SP here.
12) Edwar Cabrera, LHSP: Another fringe lefty SP to avoid at Coors. Changeup is pretty though.
13) Chris Dickerson, OF: Future fourth outfielder has legit enough hit and power tools to stick.
14) Peter Tago, RHSP: Sort of the right-handed Matzek, only with even lower probability.
15) Tom Murphy, C: Lacks Swanner's bat but has a much better chance to stick at C.
Conclusion: The Rockies have a lot of players you can dream on but few who are safe bets to reach their considerable ceilings. While on the one hand it makes sense for the organization to focus on offensive prospects -- a task at which they've done well -- on the other hand free agent pitchers don't go to Coors willingly, and more of an emphasis on high-ceiling arms would be nice to see. It's not a barren system by any means, but it's a candidate to finish in or near the bottom 10.
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