Thursday, January 6, 2011

Ranking the Rotations: The American League West

Next on my series of rotational rankings is the AL West. Rankings are based on the upside, risk and depth of each rotation, but will not be related to the potential fantasy impact of any pitchers.

As always, feedback is appreciated.
(* signifies a new acquisition, ^ signifies rookie)


1) Los Angeles Angels


Projected Rotation

1) Jered Weaver, RHP: Weaver had a breakout campaign in 2010, transforming himself from a solid mid-rotation pitcher to a Cy Young contender. Weaver saw a dramatic increase in his K/9 while lowering his BB/9 and HR/9, and had a sustainable strand rate and BABIP as well. Look for another 5-6 WAR performance in 2011.

2) Dan Haren, RHP: Haren had his worst campaign since 2006 last season, but was still good enough to post 4.5 WAR, and pitched better once moving from the D-Backs to the Angels. Haren will be 30 years old for most of the 2011 season, and while he’s losing some velocity, it’s safe to expect another 200+ innings and 4-6 WAR from one of baseball’s most reliable pitchers.

3) Ervin Santana, RHP: Santana earned 17 wins for the Angels in 2010, but posted his worst K/9 rate since 2006 and was good for just 2.5 WAR as well. He needs to rely on his well above average slider and lower his 91.8% contact rate on strikes if he hopes to return to the dominant ways of his 2008 campaign.

4) Joel Pineiro, RHP: Pineiro had a fairly predictable campaign in 2010, losing significant value from his career-best 2009 season but relying on good control and a high GB% to post a solid 3.84 FIP. The Angels will need him to pitch more innings in 2011 – he threw just 152.1 last season – but if he does, 3 WAR is within reach for the veteran sinkerballer.

5) Scott Kazmir, LHP: Kazmir seemed like a sold buy-low candidate when the Angels traded for him during the 2009 season, but posted the worst campaign of his career in 2010. Kazmir saw a decrease in his K/9 rate and velocity while his walk, homerun and contact rates all rose, and featured no above average pitches for the first time in his career.

Other Options: Trevor Bell is likely the club’s first option should injury or ineffectiveness strike, and may even have a shot at beating out Kazmir for a rotation spot this spring. His upside is limited, but he’s capable of posting positive WAR if given enough innings. Matt Palmer started 13 games for the Angles in 2009 and one last season, but will likely pitch mainly out of the bullpen in 2011. Trevor Reckling^ is one of the Angels’ better prospects, but had a rough 2010 campaign and will need to drastically improve his command before he reaches the majors.

Final Analysis: The A’s have more depth and the Mariners have the division’s best pitcher, but no other team in the AL West has as strong of a front four as the Angels. The one-two punch of Weaver and Haren is one of the most underrated duos in the majors. Both are 6+ WAR candidates and they should win 30 games between them. Santana seems to be headed in the wrong direction but still brings moderate upside, and Pineiro is a steady mid-rotation option. I’m not overly optimistic about Kazmir returning to his 2005-2008 form, but the Angels have a solid-if-unspectacular option in Bell, and if he falters, Palmer is an experienced emergency starter. Reckling likely needs more time in the minors, but could contribute as a mid-rotation starter later in the season as well.


2) Oakland Athletics


Projected Rotation

1) Brett Anderson, LHP: Anderson was viewed as a major breakout candidate last season, and while he was good when healthy, injuries limited him to just 112.1 innings. It’s fair to label Anderson as an ace-in-the-making and he has elite control, but I won’t project him for more than 4-5 WAR until I see him throw over 200 innings and lower his contact rates.

2) Trevor Cahill, RHP: Cahill is in many ways the poster child for regression candidates after posting a .238 BABIP last season, and while his GB% and strand rate were good, that type of luck is unsustainable. I still like Cahill to most a mid-3s FIP and net 3-4 WAR as he continues to improve, but don’t expect him to match his 2010 win or ERA totals.

3) Gio Gonzalez, LHP: Gonzalez is another talented A’s youngster who is likely to improve his basic skill set but may see some regression in his primary numbers in 2011. Gonzalez posted a 4.13 BB/9 rate and an extraordinarily high 78.1 strand rate last season, and was slightly aided by a .283 BABIP as well. 3+ WAR is feasible, but expect his ERA to approach 4.00 in 2011.

4) Dallas Braden, LHP: Braden posted nearly identical numbers in 2010 as he did in 2009, and it’s safe to predict that the soft-throwing will do much the same in 2011. Despite his low 5.28 K/9 rate, Braden’s excellent control and above average contact rates allow him to succeed, and he should once again net somewhere between 2.5-3 WAR for the A’s next season.

5) Rich Harden*, RHP: Harden had the worst season of his career in 2010, posting negative WAR for the first time and throwing just 92 innings for the Rangers. He seems one more arm injury away from moving to a full-time role in relief, and while it would be foolish to predict him to throw more than 140 innings, he’s had success in Oakland in the past.

Other Options: Brandon McCarthy* makes Harden look durable by comparison, but has a decent chance of winning the No. 5 starter’s spot out of spring training. Tyson Ross^ started just two games at the MLB level in 2010, but has been a starter throughout his minor league career and has No. 3 or 4 starter potential. Josh Outman started 12 games for the A’s in 2009, but didn’t pitch at all last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Clay Mortensen^ had a solid year in Triple-A but is a fringe MLB option, and the same can be said for recent acquisition Guillermo Moscoso*^. Bobby Cramer started four games for Oakland last season, but is a wildcard after pitching in Mexico for most of 2010.

Final Analysis: Many will be surprised to see the A’s ranked behind the Angels, but while I think Cahill and Gonzalez will continue to progress as pitchers, both should see statistical regression in 2011. Anderson still possesses the skill set needed to become the next Jon Lester, but needs to show more durability. Braden is a predictable and reliable number four starter, but has likely reached his ceiling. The A’s have two high-risk options for their No. 5 spot in Harden and McCarthy, and while both have moderate upside, both would likely just serve as a placeholder for Ross. Outman, Mortensen, Moscoso and Cramer will all compete for a spot in the A’s bullpen as a long reliever, but none carry significant potential as major league starters.


3) Texas Rangers


Projected Rotation

1) C.J. Wilson, LHP: Wilson had the best season of his career in 2010, making a seamless transition form the bullpen to the rotation. He clearly has the ability to remain a starter, but is a candidate for at least minor regression, as his 204 IP were nearly three time more than his previous season-high, his strand rate was 72.4%, and his BB/9 rate was high as well.

2) Colby Lewis, RHP: Lewis seemed an unlikely candidate for success last season after spending 2008 and 2009 in Japan, but was arguably the Rangers’ most consistent pitcher in 2010. Lewis’s 3.55 FIP matched up very closely to his 3.72 ERA, and with good strikeout and walk ratios, I expect him to match his 4.4 WAR from 2010 next season.

3) Tommy Hunter, RHP: Hunter was the beneficiary of extremely good luck in 2010, as his .264 BABIP and 80.7% strand rate are both unsustainable. Hunter posted a below-average K/9 rate and suffered from high contact rates as well, and unless he drastically improves his GB%, I don’t see him breaking 1.5 WAR next season.

4) Derek Holland, LHP: Holland has the biggest upside of anyone in Texas’ rotation, but has faced control and injury problems throughout his short career. Holland posted a promising 8.48 K/9 and 0.94 HR/9 in limited action last season, and if he stays healthy enough to throw 200 innings, he’s good enough to post around 4 WAR.

5) Brandon Webb*, RHP: Webb was among the most dominant pitchers in baseball from 2005-2008, but has thrown just four major league innings since. A groundball pitcher like Webb shouldn’t have to regain all his velocity to rebound, but if he’s truly throwing 82 mph as some reports have suggested, he’s no longer viable major league starter.

Other Options: Neftali Feliz is a controversial candidate for conversion to the rotation, as he’s been dynamic as the Rangers’ closer. Scott Feldman had a phenomenal 2009 campaign, but struggled mightily in 2010 and may begin next season on the DL with a knee injury. Tanner Scheppers^ has a big-time arm and No. 2-3 starter upside, but has been used mostly as reliever in the minors. Matt Harrison is perhaps the most likely candidate to make the rotation should Feldman or Webb prove inadequate. Omar Beltre made two starts for the Rangers last season, but is a fringe major league option. Michael Kirkman^ has plenty of minor league experience, but has never started at the MLB level.

Final Analysis: Wilson and Lewis should both be fairly productive again in 2011, but both profile best as mid-rotation starters. Hunter looks like a prime candidate for regression, but some of his lost value should be offset by an improving Holland. The fifth starter’s spot is wide open. Webb would represent a great comeback story, but is unlikely to contribute much. A recovering Feldman and Kirkman are unknown quantities at this point, and Beltre and Harrison are fringe starting options. Scheppers brings upside, but his lack of control means he’s likely best suited for a future in the bullpen, and the Rangers seem unwilling to tamper with Feliz’s success as a closer. In short, the Rangers’ rotation has some upside but comes with a decent chance of regression as well, and is clearly not of the same caliber as the rotations of the A’s or Angels.


4) Seattle Mariners


Projected Rotation

1) Felix Hernandez, RHP: Hernandez is still entering the prime of his career – he’ll be just 25 next season -- and could improve on his Cy Young 2010 campaign. King Felix’s strikeout rate has increased four seasons in a row, and if he can continue to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone, he could post 7+ WAR in 2011.

2) Jason Vargas, LHP: Vargas had far and away the best season of his career in 2010, relying on a changeup that suddenly improved to 15.6 runs above average and a homerun rate less than half of what it was in 2009. Vargas’ .283 BABIP is likely to even out, but it’s possible he could put together another 2 WAR season if his changeup sticks.

3) Doug Fister, RHP: Fister posted an awful 6-14 record last season, but had a very good 3.65 FIP, showed excellent control, and gave up just 13 homeruns in 171 IP. Fister’s poor strikeout rate and very high contact rates greatly limit his ceiling, but if he can generate ground balls and continue to limit his walks, he may come close to duplicating his 2010 2.9 WAR performance.

4) David Pauley, RHP: Pauley got his first taste of consistent major league time in 2010, and was nearly exactly replacement level, posting 0.1 WAR in 15 starts for the Mariners. He doesn’t belong in a contending rotation, but is capable of adequately eating up innings until a pitcher with more upside replaces him.

5) Michael Pineda^, RHP: Pineda improved his stock as much as if not more than any prospect in baseball last season, and has the most talent of any pitcher in the Mariners’ organization not named Felix. The M’s may elect to start him in the minors, but he could win a job out of spring training, and has the ceiling of eventually becoming a 5+ WAR number two starter.

Other Options: Luke French has started 25 major league games over the past two seasons, and will likely serve as the Mariners’ swingman if he doesn’t crack the rotation. Erik Bedard is a low-risk option for the M’s, and while he hasn’t pitched since 2009, he still caries upside as a viable starter. Blake Beavan^ and Mauricio Robles^ both need more time in Triple-A, but both could be ready by midseason. Chaz Roe^ is more of an organization arm than a prospect, but could be called upon to start in an emergency.

Final Analysis: The M’s starting rotation looks pretty thin at first glance, and while the organization is undoubtedly short on impact arms, at least they have a plethora of back-end starters to choose from. Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball and Pineda is a high-impact prospect, but aside from those two right-handers, only Robles profiles as anything other than a No. 4 or 5 starter. Vargas and Fister had solid 2010 campaigns but are far from safe bets headed forward, and Beavan is in their class of pitcher. Pauley, French and Roe are fringe starting options. Bedard has a better chance of making an impact for the M’s than Brandon Webb does for the Rangers, but it’s still unlikely he plays a major role in 2011. If the Mariners' 2010 starters don't regress and their youngsters mature quickly, Seattle could outpitch Texas in 2011, but that would require everything breaking just right for the Mariners.