2012 Theoretical Trade Series: Oakland Nabs Headley, Padres Keep Rebuilding

Earlier this week, we kicked off the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series with a look at what a potential swap of Jacoby Ellsbury and Jordan Zimmermann would mean for the Red Sox and Nationals.

My second piece in this series was going to cover a swap of Mike Olt and Zack Greinke, but then the Angels stepped in and ruined my plans, landing the Brewers’ ace for a package built around Jean Segura instead.

Instead, PTP examines one of the most popular offensive players on the trading block – Chase Headley – and how he’d fit with the AL’s most surprising playoff contender, the Oakland Athletics.

Few people thought the A’s would be buyers when trade season rolled around, but in Headley they can add a player who helps both now and for the next several seasons.

Chase Headley would make the A's better both now and for the next several seasons. Photo by SD Dirk.

SAN DIEGO PADRES trade Chase Headley (3B) to OAKLAND ATHLETICS for Brad Peacock (SP, AAA), Grant Green (UT, AAA), Fautino De Los Santos (RP, AAA) and Michael Taylor (OF, AAA)

Underlying Logic

The Padres are 15 games under .500 in the middle stages of a rebuilding phase, and while Headley is their best player, he’s not a franchise cornerstone or true building block. The earliest one can reasonably see San Diego competing is in 2014, which is the last deal of Headley’s contract. If they can get a big return for him now in a seller’s market, they’d be wise to so.

The Athletics find themselves in a position no one predicted when the season began – they currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Tigers for the AL’s second Wild Card spot. Oakland was also viewed as a rebuilding club, but thanks to good pitching and some unforeseen sources of power, they’re in a position to buy headed into July 31.

2012 Theoretical Trade Series: Red Sox, Nationals Exchange Ellsbury, Zimmermann

As a Twitter and MLBTradeRumors junky, the week-or-so leading up to July 31st is among my favorite times of the year. Baseball fans and bloggers scour the internet in search of the latest rumor, and spend hours postulating on the feasibility of trades which will likely never come to fruition.

What's the analytical benefit to such exercices? Well, admittedly not much. Does that mean it can't still be fun? Not at all.

With that idea in mind, I bring you the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series, in which I'll publish a few articles over the coming days detailing a few blockbuster trades I think should (but know probably won't) happen. Some will be based on rumors I read. Others, such as the one below, will be based purely on my own speculation. 

Feel free to comment to agree, disagree, compliment, insult, etc. The debate is often as fun as the speculation itself. 

Without further ado, I bring you the first article in this series, in which I trade Jacoby Ellsbury and spare parts for Jordan Zimmermann and a few arms. Enjoy!

Adding Ellsbury to the Nationals would make Washington NL World Series favorites. Photo by keithallison.

BOSTON RED SOX trade Jacoby Ellsbury (CF), Vincente Padilla (RP), Kelly Shoppach (C), Pedro Cirriaco (INF) to the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for Jordan Zimmermann (SP), Robbie Ray (LHP, A+), Ryan Perry (RHP, AAA)

Underlying Logic

The Red Sox are a sub-.500 baseball team and play their next eight games against the Rangers, Yankees and Tigers. They could very well be four or five games under the even point and even farther behind in the Wild Card hunt by this time next week.

The Nationals, meanwhile, hold a 4.5 game lead over the Braves, and are proving to be a competitive team a season before most took them too seriously. Their pitching is their strength, and they’ve been searching for true center fielder for a while now.

2012 Farm System Rankings

As seen on NESN.com, here are my 2012 Farm System Rankings. I'll be coming out with a Top 100 list for NESN soon, so stay tuned.


If you'd like to see the series as it ran on NESN, here are the links.


Systems 30-21  I  20-11  I  10-1


As always, feedback is appreciated.


Although baseball fans typically spend the offseason analyzing their favorite team's major-league rosters, assessing a team's farm system can offer a better perspective of how well set-up that organization is to succeed not just in 2012, but for the foreseeable future as well.

With several major offseason deals in the books, and with the 2011 draft class now firmly entrenched in each team's system, now is as good a time as any to review how all 30 farm systems stack up heading into the 2012 season.

There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Minor League Ball's John Sickles and more, plus analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here is a series aiming to rank, in reverse order, all 30 farm systems.

It's not a perfect science, but in general, organizations with high-upside prospects rank higher than those without, and prospects who are closer to the majors are worth more than those who are further away. That being said, an organization's depth –- including in the low minors -– does factor in to where they rank.

To begin, the bottom 10 systems in baseball are listed below. For the most part, these systems either lack prominent prospects all together, or contain one or two high-end prospects with little talent to follow.

As always, players must meet MLB rookie eligibility requirements (under 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level) to qualify as part of an organization's farm system.

1) San Diego Padres

Top Prospect: Rymer Liriano, outfielder

The Padres boast the best combination of upside and probability of any farm system in baseball, and have talent through all levels of their minor leagues. Robbie Erlin, Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland should all be permanent members of the big league rotation by mid-2013, and Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Liriano, Corey Spangenberg and Jedd Gyorko give them a solid crop of offensive prospects as well. Trading Mat Latos to the Reds will hurt them in 2012, but it put them in a much better position going forward.

2) Toronto Blue Jays

Top Prospect: Travis d’Arnaud, catcher

GM Alex Anthopoulos has done a tremendous job building this farm system through trades, drafting and the international market, and as a result the Jays now have the top system in the American League. Jake Marisnik and Anthony Gose form one of the most dynamic outfield prospect pairings in baseball, and d’Arnaud is an elite catching prospect. With Drew Hutchison, Justin Nicolino, Noah Snydergaard, Daniel Norris, Deck McGuire and Aaron Sanchez, the Jays have a bevy of No. 2/3 starter types throughout the system as well. It’s a very impressive group, especially given the trade of Nestor Molina and recent graduations of Henderson Alvarez and Brett Lawrie.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

Top Prospect: Trevor Bauer, starting pitcher

Even after trading Jarrod Parker for Trevor Cahill, the D-Backs boast one of the most impressive collections of pitchers in the minors. Bauer and Tyler Skaggs should be MLB-ready this season, and Archie Bradley, Pat Corbin and David Holmberg aren’t too far behind. Matt Davidson and Bobby Borchering could boast 30-homer power, and Anthony Meo and Andrew Chafin could be phenomenal relievers. Add in up-the-middle prospects Chris Owings and A.J. Pollock, and Arizona has set itself up for success for years to come.

4) Tampa Bay Rays

Top Prospect: Matt Moore, starting pitcher

It doesn’t matter how many prospects the Rays graduate to the majors each year – they just keep replenishing an incredibly deep system. Flame-throwing lefty Moore is one of the three or four best prospects in baseball, and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitcher Chris Archer will make plenty of Top 50 lists as well. A haul of Taylor Guerreri, Mikie Mathook and Grayson Garvin were parts of a good 2011 draft, and Brandon Guyer and Alex Torres, Alex Colome and Tim Beckham could play roles on the 2012 MLB club.

5) Texas Rangers

Top Prospect: Jurickson Profar, shortstop

The Rangers have a nice mix of talent in the low-to-mid minors. Profar is arguably the best shortstop prospect in the game, and has five-tool talent. Martin Perez’s prospect star has faded in recent months, but he’s still just 20 and reached Triple-A last season. He could join righty Neil Ramirez and lefty Robbie Ross in the Rangers’ rotation in short order, with Cody Buckel further away (and Yu Darvish a possibility too). Outfielder Leonys Martin will be an excellent defender with some pop in center, and Mike Olt is a promising corner infield bat in the low minors. Infielders Rougned Odor and Christian Villanueva are exciting too. 

2012 Top 20 Red Sox Prospects

Below is my 2012 Top 20 Red Sox list, which appeared on NESN.com. As always, comments are appreciated!

Since the dawn of the Theo Epstein era in 2002, the Red Sox have enjoyed nearly a decade of success in the drafting and development of minor league players. Perennially considered one of the better farm systems in baseball, the Red Sox system currently contains mostly high-impact prospects in the lower levels of the minors, but there are still plenty of players ready to contribute to the 2012 squad as well.

There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Fangraphs' Mike Newman and Marc Hulet and more, plus analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here are the Red Sox' top prospects headed into the 2012 season.

Players must meet MLB rookie eligibility requirements (under 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level) to qualify for this list. Teams listed below represent the highest level each player reached in 2011.

1. Will Middlebrooks, third base, Pawtucket

One of the most athletic third base prospects in the minors, Middlebrooks enjoyed a breakout season in 2011. The 23-year-old posted a .302 average and .345 on-base percentage with 18 homers and 25 doubles in 397 plate appearances in Double-A.

Widely regarded as an above-average defender, Middlebrooks' best tools are his arm and his plus power. One area of concern for Middlebrooks is his plate discipline, as he struck out in more than 23 percent of his at-bats last season while walking less than 6 percent of the time. Middlebrooks may never develop into the type of high-OBP player Sox fans have become accustomed to, but has a ceiling as an above-average everyday third baseman in the mold of a young Mike Lowell -- albeit with inferior contact rates. 

2. Anthony Ranaudo, starting pitcher, Salem

Ranaudo had a solid if unspectacular year in High-A, tossing 81 innings and posting a 4.33 ERA in 16 starts. Ranaudo's 3.95 fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggests he was better than his ERA demonstrates, but it would have been nice to see him pitch with more efficiency. The next major steps in Ranaudo's development will be further refining his changeup and building up his durability -– surpassing 140 innings pitched in 2012 would be a great sign.

Ranaudo projects more as a No. 2 starter than an ace in the majors, but he still comes with significant upside and could compete for a spot in the Sox rotation in spring training 2013. 

3. Xander Bogaerts, shortstop, Greenville

This is an aggressive ranking for Bogaerts, but if you believe that the best way to win at the MLB level is through acquiring stars, there's no more exciting prospect in the Red Sox system. Bogaerts' numbers don't look entirely impressive without context, as he put up a .260-16-45 line with a .324 OBP in Greenville. But considering Bogaerts more than held his own as an 18-year-old in Single-A in his second professional season, those numbers are rather impressive.

Bogaerts may eventually outgrow shortstop and slide to third base, but his bat would profile there as well. He's at least three more seasons away from seeing the majors, but his upside is as an all-star who contributes both in the middle of the field and in the heart of a batting order.

4. Jose Iglesias, shortstop, Pawtucket

Just about every Red Sox fans knows the book on Iglesias -– he's ready to be one of the two or three best defensive shortstops in baseball right now, but he's proven to be a liability at the plate to this point in his young career.

Iglesias possesses the bat speed and hand-eye coordination necessary to hit for a solid average, but he struggles with pitch recognition and has very little power. After hitting just .235 with a .285 OBP in Triple-A last year, Iglesias will need to prove himself for a few months before seeing major league time. He's still the Sox’ shortstop of the near future, but 2011 represented a step backward in his development.

5. Ryan Lavarnway, catcher/designated hitter, Boston

Lavarnway has the exact opposite problem as Iglesias: He's ready to contribute in the majors with his bat right now, but is held back by defensive limitations. Lavarnway has well above-average power -- especially when he pulls the ball -- and mashed 34 homeruns and 25 doubles between three levels last season. Behind the plate, Lavarnway has no problems calling games, but is below average against the run game and needs work on blocking pitches as well. Ideally, Lavarnway will progress into a Mike Napoli-type player who can catch twice a week while primarily DH-ing. If the Red Sox don’t retain Jason Varitek, Lavarnway could begin the season in the majors.

Top 10 Prospects Moved at 2011 Deadline

Below is my annual Top 10 Prospects Moved at the Trade Deadline for NESN. Feel free to comment!

The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and while major league players on the move have stolen most of the headlines, a wealth of minor league talent has changed hands as well. Unlike the 2010 deadline that saw few impact prospects switch organizations, 2011 saw future aces, power hitters and MLB-ready arms exchange uniforms with regularity.

The 10 best prospects who switched teams at or during the days leading up to the deadline are ranked below. Most of these players won't see the majors until next season at the earliest, but they'll aim to ensure that at future trade deadlines, their organizations are looking to add talent for deep playoff runs.

10. Charlie Furbush, pitcher, Seattle Mariners
Furbush was a part of the deal that saw Doug Fister and David Pauley shipped to Detroit, and the 25-year-old left-hander offers the Mariners some versatility going forward. Should the M's choose to put Furbush in the rotation, he has the ceiling of a No. 4 starter, and his tendency to give up the long ball would be somewhat mitigated by spacious Safeco Field. Furbush's lack of a true out-pitch means his future may lie in the bullpen, though, where he would likely become a solid set-up man or high-leverage reliever. Either Drew Smyly orChance Ruffin is rumored to be the PTBNL in the Fister deal, and either would bump Furbush off this list. A case can also be made to place Joe Wieland, dealt from Texas to San Diego, here on the list instead of Furbush.

9. Francisco Martinez, third baseman, Seattle Mariners
Until the final player is named, Martinez is the best prospect the Mariners received in the Fister trade. While he may not be an industry-consensus Top 100 prospect, he's likely not all that far off either. Martinez won't turn 21 until September, yet he is holding his own at Double-A with a .282 average, 46 RBIs and seven home runs and seven steals. His .319 on-base percentage leaves much to be desired, but he looks like a future everyday player, and has the tools to be an outstanding defensive third baseman. It's hard to find many impact positional prospects in the Mariners' system, and Martinez immediately becomes one of their best.

8. Zach Stewart, pitcher, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were largely slammed for dealing Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen to save payroll while in the midst of a pennant race, but they did little to harm their starting pitching depth by acquiring Stewart in return. Dealt from the Reds to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen at the 2009 deadline, Stewart has been a consistent if not phenomenal performer at Double-A over the past two years, and started three games for the Jays earlier this season as well. Stewart could use a little more minor league seasoning, but is still just 24, and should compete for a spot in the White Sox rotation next year. He profiles as a No. 3 starter if he continues to improve his command.

7. Trayvon Robinson, outfielder, Seattle Mariners
Perhaps no move during this year's trading deadline was as odd as the Dodgers' decision to give up Robinson, who is exactly the type of young, cost-controlled talent they should be looking to acquire. Robinson has seen his value increase this year with a phenomenal Triple-A campaign, as the switch-hitter has hit .297-26-71 with eight steals and a .375 OBP through 416 plate appearances. Scouts believe the uptick in power may be a fluke, but Robinson should reach double-digit homers and steals in the majors. He can play an above-average left field or be an adequate defender in center. The Mariners will likely keep Robinson in Triple-A until the minor league season ends, but expect him to be up with the big league club in September, and to complete for a starting job next spring.

6. Alex White, starting pitcher, Colorado Rockies
White is the most major league-ready piece the Rockies received from the Indians in the Ubaldo Jimenezdeal, but is currently on the disabled list with a finger injury -– a worse fate for White than for most pitchers, since his best pitch is a splitter. White has flown through the minors since being drafted 15th overall in 2009 and has less than 200 innings pitched in his professional career. If he can continue to induce ground balls at an above-average rate and improve on his slider, he has the chance to be a No. 3 starter. If not, he still profiles as a late-inning reliever or possible closer.

2011 MLB Trade Deadline: Ten Prospects Likely to Move

With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline fewer than two weeks away, dozens of established major leaguers and intriguing prospects across all of baseball will be changing teams. Teams in contention will struggle with the challenge of winning now without mortgaging their future, while those in rebuilding mode will look to stock up for 2012 and beyond.

Last year's deadline saw current major leaguers such as Dan Hudson, Wilson Ramos and Brett Wallace switch uniforms, as well as Top 100 prospects such as Tyler Skaggs and Pat Corbin. The 2011 deadline is sure to feature some major names from the prospect world as well.

The players on this list aren't ranked by their ability, but rather by the likelihood with which they will be dealt in the coming days. All trades imagined below are purely speculative, but consist of names that are frequently mentioned as trade candidates.

10. Dayan Viciedo, first base/designated hitter, Chicago White Sox
Viciedo’s name isn't one that's mentioned frequently in rumors, but it makes sense for him to be dealt from a logistical standpoint. Viciedo is hitting at a .322/.371/.525 (BA/OBP/SLG) clip in Triple-A, but while he is clearly MLB-ready, he has nowhere to play in Chicago. Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn represent long-term commitments at first base and designated hitter, respectively, and Viciedo would be a defensive liability at third base or in the outfield. Still just 21 years old, Viciedo would draw a ton of interest on the trade market, and could be used to land a quality reliever –- think Leo Nunez -- or a more offensively potent third baseman thanBrent Morel. 

9. Robbie Erlin, starting pitcher, Texas Rangers
Erlin is probably the fourth or fifth best prospect on this list, and as such could be used as the centerpiece of a deal for a top-of-the-rotation starter or a closer. Still just 19 years old, Erlin has already reached Double-A, and is largely dominating there through 54 2/3 innings. The Rangers are unlikely to deal their two best prospects -–Jurickson Profar or Martin Perez -- but may decide Erlin is expendable for a Heath Bell, Mike Adams or Jon Danks. He could be a mid-rotation starter by as soon as this time next season.

8. Desmond Jennings, outfielder, Tampa Bay Rays
It makes little sense for the Rays to trade Jennings, but then again it makes no sense for Jennings to still be in Triple-A. The 24-year-old center fielder is hitting .280 with 12 homers, 17 stolen bases and a .375 on-base percentage. He's battled injuries throughout his career, but he'd be an immediate upgrade over Sam Fuld orJustin Ruggiano and could assume leadoff duties from Johnny Damon. The Rays are more likely to tradeB.J. Upton, but if they don't, Jennings could be dealt for a middle-of-the-order bat or an elite bullpen arm if they decide to shoot for the playoffs this season.

7. Josh Reddick, outfielder, Boston Red Sox
Reddick has fast become a fan favorite in Boston. But while he's capable of being an everyday big league right fielder, his value will never be higher than it is now. Reddick has hit .367 with four homers and 18 RBI in his impressive 2011 campaign, but he's done so in a very small sample size, and he can't sustain that type of success. Plus, many still view Ryan Kalish as the Red Sox' right fielder of the future. Reddick wouldn't be nearly enough if the Red Sox shoot for a big name like Jose Reyes or Ubaldo Jimenez, but if they set their sights on Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Cuddyer or Carlos Beltran, his name could come into play.

6. Charlie Furbush, pitcher, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are rumored to be seeking a mid-rotation starter in the Derek Lowe or Jeremy Guthrie mold, and Furbush is the type of solid, yet non-elite prospect who could be involved in such a deal. Furbush has pitched well at Triple-A this season, with a 3.17 ERA and 10.17 K/9 rate, but allowed five home runs in just 29 innings with a 4.03 ERA in the majors. His ceiling is as a mid-rotation starter, but he may end up in the bullpen. Don't expect the Tigers to trade Andy Oliver or Nick Castellanos and consider Jacob Turner all but untouchable.

2011 MLB Mock Draft: Cole, Rendon and Bundy Take Top 3 Slots

Below is my 2011 MLB Mock Draft, which is featured here on NESN. Based on information from Keith Law, Jim Callis, Frank Pileire and Jonathan Mayo -- plus hours and hours of scanning scouting reports and watching video -- here's my best guess at how the first round will shape up tomorrow.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
The Pirates have also been linked to Virginia lefty Hultzen, but it will be hard to pass on the upside of Cole, who has outstanding stuff and should move quickly through the minors once he improves his command. Pairing Cole with Jameson Taillon – the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft – could give the Pirates one of the best young one-two rotation punches in baseball as soon as mid-2013.

2. Seattle Mariners – Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Rendon was the early favorite to go first overall, but has been limited mostly to DH duties this season thanks to ankle and shoulder injuries. Far and away the best college position player in the draft, Rendon’s ceiling is as a slower Evan Longoria, capable of playing Gold Glove-caliber defense and batting in the middle of a lineup. He’d be a great addition to a Mariners system short on impact players.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks – Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso High School (OK)
The D-backs had been linked to Hultzen for weeks, but more recent rumors have them setting their sites on Bundy. The top prep arm in the draft, Bundy has outstanding command and should advance faster than most high school products. He has as much upside as any pitcher in this class, and could be in a big league rotation by 2014.

4. Baltimore Orioles – Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia 
The O’s would likely prefer for Bundy to fall to them, but would be quite content with Hultzen, who has a good shot at being the first pitcher from this draft to permanently join a major league rotation. Adding Hultzen to a rotation with fellow southpaws Brian Matusz and Zach Britton would be downright unfair to left-handed batters everywhere.

5. Kansas City Royals – Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
The Royals are setting themselves up to be a legitimately competitive ballclub from 2013-2016, and will want a prospect who can contribute during that time frame. Enter Bauer, who is frequently compared to Tim Lincecum and would be a Top 3 pick in weaker drafts. He may beat his current rotation-mate Cole to the majors, although some teams are concerned about his heavy workloads.

6. Washington Nationals – Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner Edgerton High School (KS)
There aren’t many surefire picks in this draft, but Starling to the Nationals seems to be one of them. Starling is far and away the best high school bat in the class, and has the chance to be a Carlos Beltran-type five-tool center fielder in the future. It’ll take a big bonus to keep him from playing quarterback at Nebraska, but the Nationals have been big spenders in the past two drafts.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks – Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy (FL)
The best shortstop prospect in this draft class, Lindor doesn’t project to move through the minors quickly but could be a perennial All-Star once he arrives in the majors. He won’t hit for much power, but he’s a switch-hitter who should hit for high averages while providing above-average defense. The D-backs will be tempted to draft a college arm here, but a potential franchise shortstop may be too good to pass up.

8. Cleveland Indians – Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Indians are rumored to be in love with Bauer, but there’s very little chance he falls this far. Still, the Indians will likely opt for a college arm here, with Gray and Georgia’s Jed Bradley the most likely choices. Some believe Gray’s future is as a reliever, but if he can hold his velocity deeper into outings he has No. 1 starter potential.

9. Chicago Cubs – Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow High School (OK)
In most draft classes, Bradley would be the top high school pitcher. Thanks to Bundy, he’s not even the best prep arm in his state. Bradley may take a little longer than his interstate rival to reach the majors, but he has a more durable frame and his ceiling is just as high. The Cubs will likely have to provide Bradley with a significant bonus, as he has an offer to play quarterback at Oklahoma.

10. San Diego Padres – Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
This is an unprotected pick since the Padres failed to sign first-rounder Karsten Whitson last year, so look for them to take a player they know they can sign here. Barnes fits the bill, and while he may be slower to the majors than some of the other top college arms, he still has ace potential. The Padres are also interested in college bats such as George Springer and Corey Spangenberg.

11. Houston Astros – Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia
The Astros are rumored to have their heart set on Archie Bradley, but unfortunately for them it appears as though the Cubs do as well. The Astros will have to settle for a different Bradley, and while Jed lacks No. 1 starter potential, he should be a viable mid-rotation innings-eater in short order. Taylor Jungmann and Taylor Guerrieri are also possibilities, and there are rumors that Chris Reed may go here as well.

12. Milwaukee Brewers – Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
The Brewers should do cartwheels if Jungmann falls to them, as he’s become somewhat underrated amidst the hype surrounding some higher-ceiling arms. Jungmann has been amazingly consistent during his career at Texas, and is one of the safest picks in the draft. He can help the Brewers restock a system drained by off-season trades for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and profiles as a durable No. 2 starter.

13. New York Mets – Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley High School (SC)
The Mets may prefer college arms such as Jungmann or Jed Bradey, but Guerrieri is one hell of a consolation prize. Guerrieri is likely to need three or four seasons in the minors -- as many prep arms do -- but he has top-of-the-rotation potential, and the Mets are about to enter a rebuilding phase anyway. His upside is nearly as high as Bundy’s or Archie Bradley’s.

14. Florida Marlins – Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
Unless one of the elite arms falls it seems as though the Marlins will focus on offense with this pick, and Mahtook provides a nice combination of upside and probability. He profiles as a leadoff hitter and center fielder in the Shane Victorino mold, and should move through the minors fairly quickly. The Marlins are also linked to Spangenberg and Levi Michael.

15. Milwaukee Brewers – Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
After going the safe route with Jungmann at pick 12, the Brewers can afford to roll the dice with Meyer here. Meyer has shaky command and may end up as a reliever, but if he can develop a third pitch and learn to repeat his delivery, he has ace potential. This is an unprotected pick due to the Brewers’ failure to sign Dylan Covey last year, though, so the team may opt for an easier sign.

16. Los Angeles Dodgers – Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Most believe that the cash-strapped Dodgers will have to stick to MLB’s slotting system, so a cheap, medium-upside pick like Anderson makes sense. Anderson profiles as a mid-rotation southpaw in the Joe Saundersmold, but he should move through the minors quickly and won’t command a huge bonus. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Dodgers target Javier Baez here instead.

17. Los Angeles Angels -- Javier Baez, 3B/SS, Arlington County Day School (FL)
The Angels would love for Lindor to somehow fall here and also have a strong history with high school arms, but Baez provides the type of power bat they currently lack in their system. Baez won’t move quickly, has no chance of staying at shortstop and needs to tone down his on-field antics, but he comes with serious upside as well.

18. Oakland Athletics – George Springer, OF, UConn
Springer has the best combination of tools of any hitter in this class save for Starling, but there are serious mechanical flaws with his swing that may see him fall past the first 15 picks. The A’s are rumored to be high on Springer, and would likely settle for college bats such as Spangenberg or Kolten Wong if the UConn product is off the board.

19. Boston Red Sox – Levi Michael, SS, UNC
The Red Sox aren’t typically linked to Michael, and are rumored to be in on higher-upside guys who will be tough to sign, such as Josh Bell, Blake Swihart or Meyer if he falls this far. But just as they took Kolbrin Vitek with their first selection in 2010 and focused on riskier players later, look for the Red Sox to take a high-probability player at 19 and role the dice at picks 26, 36 and 40.

20. Colorado Rockies – C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
It’s tough to find a mock draft that doesn’t have Cron going to the Rockies, and it’s not difficult to see why. Although it’s rarely a good idea for MLB teams to draft for need, Cron should progress through the minors quickly, and the Rockies lack an heir-apparent to Todd Helton. The only other name the Rockies are linked to is Wong, but Cron is the more likely option. His 30-homer power would play nicely at Coors Field.

21. Toronto Blue Jays – Cory Spangenberg, 3B/OF, Indian River State
The Blue Jays are most frequently linked to Michael, but he’s off the board in this mock draft. Jay’s GM Alex Anthopoulos has focused on acquiring athletic players during his tenure, and the speedy Spangenberg fits the bill. If Brett Lawrie cements himself as the Blue Jay’s third baseman of the future, Spangenberg may be able to handle center field. Brian Goodwin is another athletic option.

22. St. Louis Cardinals – Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill High School (TN)
The Cardinals have a strong tendency to take college players, but most of the top college starters are off the board and there are plenty of intriguing prep arms remaining. Norris heads that list, and is the consensus best left-handed high school pitcher in the draft. Norris is committed to Clemson and may ask for a hefty bonus, but lefties who can hit 96 mph with frequency are rare.

23. Washington Nationals – Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy High School (AR)
The Nationals are believed to covet Meyer here, but he’s long gone in this mock draft. Howard is the best prep arm remaining, and although he’s committed to Arkansas he’d likely forgo school for a considerable bonus. Howard’s value is based mostly on projection at this point, but he has the potential to be a frontline starter a few seasons down the road.  Jose Fernandez, Robert Stephenson and Henry Owens are options here as well.

24. Tampa Bay Rays – Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
With 12 picks in the top 89, the Rays will have to mix in both high-upside players and high-probability picks. Wong is certainly the latter, and while he’s not an elite talent, he’s a safe bet to hit and reach the majors in short order. Wong profiles as a prototypical No. 2 hitter in the Mark Loretta mold, and the Rays should be able to sign him for slot and then spend money elsewhere.

25. San Diego Padres – Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State
After taking Barnes with the 10th pick the Padres would love for a cheap college bat such as Spangenberg to land here, but will settle for one of the draft’s best catchers instead. Susac is very solid defensively, but there are plenty of questions about his offense. He’s also recovering from a broken hamate bone he suffered in April. If the Padres’ draft budget is bigger than in years past, Swihart could be the pick here instead.

26. Boston Red Sox – Brandon Nimmo, OF, Cheyenne East High School (WY)
With the high-probability Michael in the bag, the Red Sox can afford to take a bigger gamble with this pick and select the toolsy but untested Nimmo, who’s faced little high-level competition to this point. He’s a long-term project and strongly committed to Arkansas, but is one of the best talents left. Swihart is also a possibility here, as are Bell, Josh Osich and Austin Hedges.

27) Cincinnati Reds – Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra High School (CA)
The Reds would probably love if Anderson fell here, but few remaining prep arms can match the upside of Stephenson, who could go as high as to the Astros at 11 or the Dodgers at 16. Stephenson is a long-term pitching project and is committed to Washington, but would be a boon to a Reds’ system that doesn’t have much talent in the low minors.

28) Atlanta Braves – Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso High School (FL)
The Braves are supposedly intent on taking the best available prep arm here, and a good case can be made for Fernandez. He’s a local kid – the Braves always have strong ties to player in the Georgia area – and could be a top-of-the-rotation starter if he watches his conditioning. Owens, Michael Kelly, Joe Ross and Lawrence Academy product Tyler Beede are all possibilities here as well.

29) San Francisco Giants – Henry Owens, LHP, Edison High School (CA)
Zack Wheeler notwithstanding, the Giants don’t have many high-ceiling pitchers in their system. Owens could change that immediately, and while he’ll likely need considerable time in the minors, he has as much upside as any lefty in this draft. The Giants have had luck recently developing southpaws such as Madison Bumgarnerand Jonathan Sanchez, so Owens makes sense here.

30) Minnesota Twins – Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford
The Twins love their college pitchers, and while they could opt for a high-probability arm such as Grayson Garvin, Reed provides much more upside. Reed was used as a reliever in college, but he has a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, and comes with big potential as a starter if stretched out. Stuff-wise he’s similar to Chris Sale, although he lacks the White Sox rookie’s control.

31) Tampa Bay Rays – Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami Dade College
The Rays have had success with athletic outfielders in the past – think Rocco Baldelli, BJ Upton andDesmond Jennings – and will look to continue that trend with Goodwin. Goodwin could go much higher than this, but the potential five-tool center fielder would feel right at home staying in Florida. He should sign for slot, allowing the Rays to spend more later in the draft.

32) Tampa Bay Rays – Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland High School (NM)
Swihart isn’t a lock to stay at catcher and will want a big bonus to keep him away from the University of Texas, but the switch-hitter has one of the best bats in the draft. With two safer players in Wong and Goodwin already drafted, the Rays can gamble on Swihart here, and hope they land the next Wil Myers. Hedges is also a possibility, as is Bell if the Rays are feeling particularly daring.

33) Texas Rangers – Andrew Chafin, LHP, Kent State
Chafin is yet another hard-throwing lefty in this draft, although he comes with some red tape as he required Tommy John surgery and missed the 2010 season. Chafin’s fastball is as good as ever, but his secondary pitchers are inconsistent and he needs to improve his control. He comes with a good amount of upside, though, and shouldn’t command a huge bonus. Osich is also a possibility here, as is Travis Harrison.