What's the analytical benefit to such exercices? Well, admittedly not much. Does that mean it can't still be fun? Not at all.
With that idea in mind, I bring you the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series, in which I'll publish a few articles over the coming days detailing a few blockbuster trades I think should (but know probably won't) happen. Some will be based on rumors I read. Others, such as the one below, will be based purely on my own speculation.
Feel free to comment to agree, disagree, compliment, insult, etc. The debate is often as fun as the speculation itself.
Without further ado, I bring you the first article in this series, in which I trade Jacoby Ellsbury and spare parts for Jordan Zimmermann and a few arms. Enjoy!
 |
| Adding Ellsbury to the Nationals would make Washington NL World Series favorites. Photo by keithallison. |
BOSTON RED SOX trade Jacoby
Ellsbury (CF), Vincente Padilla
(RP), Kelly Shoppach (C), Pedro Cirriaco (INF) to the WASHINGTON
NATIONALS for Jordan Zimmermann
(SP), Robbie Ray (LHP, A+), Ryan Perry (RHP, AAA)
Underlying Logic
The Red Sox are a sub-.500 baseball team and play their next
eight games against the Rangers, Yankees and Tigers. They could very well be
four or five games under the even point and even farther behind in the Wild
Card hunt by this time next week.
The Nationals, meanwhile, hold a 4.5 game lead over the
Braves, and are proving to be a competitive team a season before most took them
too seriously. Their pitching is their strength, and they’ve been searching for
true center fielder for a while now.
Why It Works - Boston
The Red Sox give up the best player in the deal in Ellsbury,
but get back the one commodity their organization sorely lacks – a good, young,
cost-controlled starting pitcher in Zimmermann, who’s signed through 2015.
Padilla, Shoppach and Ciriaco have no long-term value to the club, and could
open up MLB playing time for promising young players such as Ryan Lavarnway, Jose Iglesias and Alex
Wilson.
While it’s dangerous to rely on prospects, the Red Sox can
plan on Jackie Bradley Jr. taking
over in center in 2014 and can use a stopgap – perhaps Ryan Sweeney or Ryan Kalish
– next season. A 2013 rotation with Jon
Lester, Clay Buchholz, Zimmerman
and Josh Beckett has the potential to be a very good one, and should keep
Boston competitive.
Ray is a Top 200 prospect whose years away but can be a No.
3/4 starter, and Perry can be a seventh inning guy if he refines his command. The
Sox will lose some offense, but still have the pieces in place to compete in
2013 while also building towards the more distant future.
Why It Works --
Washington
The Nationals, meanwhile, add one of the game’s elite
all-around players in Ellsbury, who can give them a true leadoff hitter and
allow Bryce Harper to stay in a
corner outfield spot fulltime. Shoppach kills left-handed pitching and is an
improvement over Sandy Leon, while
Padilla adds to a bullpen depleted by Drew
Storen’s injury and Brad Lidge’s
Brad Lidge-iness. Ciriaco can serve as a backup while Ian Desmond is on the DL but offers no long-term value.
Losing Zimmermann hurts, but Stephen Strasburg and Gio
Gonzalez still form one of the major’s best one-two pitching punches, and
there’s enough depth for the Nats to absorb the blow. They can use John Lannan as their No. 5 starter, or
trade their other pieces for a mid-rotation starter in the Jason Vargas mold. Losing Ray is acceptable, as the Nats’ window
for contention is open now, and Perry is not a key piece for their future.
A team built around Ellsbury, Ryan Zimmerman, Harper, Strasburg ,Gonzalez and Tyler Clippard for the next two years
is a team to be reckoned with. Add in better results from Jayson Werth and Drew Storen
and Washington could sit atop the NL East for a while.
Why It Doesn’t Work --
Boston
As bleak as the Red Sox’ season seems right now, they are still only four games out of a Wild
Card spot, and have far more raw talent than Cleveland, Baltimore or Oakland,
and likely have more than Toronto, Chicago or Tampa Bay as well. If Ben
Cherrington and co. decide to go for it and trade B-level prospects for a
mid-rotation starter, this team could still make a run. It’s unlikely, but it’s
feasible.
Trading Ellsbury, who should have won the AL MVP award last
season, would be an unpopular move, and trading for pitching is always more
risky than trading for hitting. Zimmermann seems like a solid bet to be
productive for the next few seasons but he has already had Tommy John surgery,
and Ray and Perry are far from sure bets to produce meaningful MLB careers.
This also clearly signals a white flag for 2012 – something
first-year manager Cherrington may not find appealing in a city with a vicious
media cycle and daunting expectations.
Why It Doesn’t Work –
Washington
The Nationals have big contracts in Zimmerman, Werth and
Gonzalez, and adding another one in Ellsbury may not be what ownership wants.
Zimmermann may be amenable to an extension, and the aforementioned
Strasburg-Gonzalez-Zimmermann core would be among, if not the, best trio of
young starters in baseball.
Washington also knows there’s a strong market for free agent
center fielders coming up, and may prefer to spend money instead of a good
starter. Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino are three upcoming
options. If they don’t want to make a huge splash, Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki
and Angel Pagan will be available as
well. They could also target a player who won’t require a return of Zimmermann,
such as Denard Span, Dexter Fowler
or Peter Bourjos.
Trading for Gonzalez thinned out Washington’s system this
off-season, and getting rid of Ray – who I rank as their sixth-best prospect –
will make it even weaker. Padilla and Shoppach will help but may add less than
a full win between them, and Ciriaco probably won’t be on the team come
September.
Conclusion
There’s a good amount of risk absorbed on both sides of this
deal. The Red Sox give away an MVP candidate who they may be able to sign to a
long-term extension, as well as significantly deplete their 2012 depth. If they
make this deal, the snowball’s-chance-in-hell they have of making the playoffs
this year ceases to be.
The Nationals give up one of the sport’s better young
pitchers for a player who could walk away after the 2013 season, leaving them
with little but a draft pick. The secondary players they receive in the deal
will help now, but offer little long-term value. Losing Ray could make the deal
appear even worse a few years down the road.
That being said, both teams address huge needs and both will
remain competitive in 2013 and beyond. The Sox add some much-needing pitching,
while the Nationals solidify one of baseball’s best young cores while improving
their chances in 2012 as well.
I’m not sure either fan base would be entirely thrilled with
this deal, but it’s one that makes sense – especially if Ellsbury signs a
mega-deal to stay in D.C.
This would certainly qualify as a blockbuster, but it’s one
that makes sense for all parties.
No comments:
Post a Comment