2013 Top 10 Fantasy Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Welcome to Prospering Through Prospects' 2013 Top 10 Fantasy Prospects series: an in-depth look at every minor league name you'll need to know as you build up your dynasty leagues, restock your keepers and aim for value plays in redraft leagues as well. For a primer on the series, check out this piece, and for a list of all organizations check here. As always, comments, questions and criticisms are welcome!

Overall Impressions: The Rockies possess one of the most unique farm systems to assess from a Fantasy perspective, as their home ballpark seriously hinders the value of pitchers and boosts the value of hitters. Thankfully for Fantasy owners, those strengths match up well with many of Colorado's top prospects right now, as there's a nice mix of potential offensive Fantasy contributors strewn throughout the Rockies system. The Rockies were also boosted by a strong 2012 draft that saw them nab the second, 11th and 15th players on this list. You can skip this entry if you're looking to improve your WHIP or ERA, but if offense is your cup of tea there's plenty of promise here.  

Strengths: Positional depth. Seven of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 15 prospects on the list are hitters, which is partially due to the Coors effect and partially due to their natural talent. There's a nice mix of power hitters and speeders, high risk/reward and low ceiling/safe players and talents at many different positions. 

Weaknesses: Pitching. Colorad's developed an affinity for soft-tossing lefties, such as Tyler Anderson, Edwar Cabrera, and Jayson Aquino and such player are unlikely to contribute much to the Fantasy world. Players such as Chad Bettis, Tyler Matzek and Peter Tago have more upside, but are not good bets to succeed.

Kyle Parker's impressive power would make him an attractive Fantasy option should he come to call right field at Coors his home. Photo by mwlguide. 

COLORADO ROCKIES TOP 10 LIST 

1) Nolan Arenado, 3B
Categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, OBP

The Arenado hate coming off of one mediocre year is a little intense, especially considering his home ballpark. Maybe he’s not a star, but Arenado’s hit and power tools have plus potential and he should be ready by June. Don’t give up on him, and expect a significant 2013 impact as well once Chris Nelson falls back to Earth. ETA: 2013

2013 Top 10 Fantasy Prospects: Arizona Diamondbacks

Welcome to Prospering Through Prospects' 2013 Top 10 Fantasy Prospects series: an in-depth look at every minor league name you'll need to know as you build up your dynasty leagues, restock your keepers and aim for value plays in redraft leagues as well. For a primer on the series, check out this piece, and for a list of all organizations check here. As always, comments, questions and criticisms are welcome!

Overall Impressions: The Diamondbacks' farm system was in better shape when the offseason began, with Top 20 prospect Trevor Bauer still intact and the promise of a major haul coming in return for Justin Upton. Now Bauer is gone, replaced by Fantasy non-factor Gregorius, and the package Arizona received for Upton is quite underwhelming. Had they nabbed Taijuan Walker and Nick Franklin from the Mariners, this could've been a Top 5 system. Instead, they're more like a Top 12.

Strengths: Pitching depth, with four or five probably back-end starters. A nice cast of fourth outfielders and flawed but promising infielders.

Weaknesses: Upside from position players -- most profile as regulars, not stars. Lack of promising arms  in the low minors, aside from Archie Bradley.

Chris Owings has flaws, but he's the highest-upside shortstop in the system from a Fantasy perspective. Photo by mwlguide.  

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS TOP 10 LIST

1) Tyler Skaggs, LHSP
Categories: K, W, ERA, WHIP

Skaggs isn’t a future ace, but he’s among the best LHSP prospects in the game thanks to his upside and floor. He’s a little homer prone, but can be a No. 3/4 Fantasy SP For a long time and he’s ready now. Skaggs is relevant for those in redraft leagues too, although don't bank on him for outstanding immediate results. ETA: 2013

2012 Theoretical Trade Series: Oakland Nabs Headley, Padres Keep Rebuilding

Earlier this week, we kicked off the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series with a look at what a potential swap of Jacoby Ellsbury and Jordan Zimmermann would mean for the Red Sox and Nationals.

My second piece in this series was going to cover a swap of Mike Olt and Zack Greinke, but then the Angels stepped in and ruined my plans, landing the Brewers’ ace for a package built around Jean Segura instead.

Instead, PTP examines one of the most popular offensive players on the trading block – Chase Headley – and how he’d fit with the AL’s most surprising playoff contender, the Oakland Athletics.

Few people thought the A’s would be buyers when trade season rolled around, but in Headley they can add a player who helps both now and for the next several seasons.

Chase Headley would make the A's better both now and for the next several seasons. Photo by SD Dirk.

SAN DIEGO PADRES trade Chase Headley (3B) to OAKLAND ATHLETICS for Brad Peacock (SP, AAA), Grant Green (UT, AAA), Fautino De Los Santos (RP, AAA) and Michael Taylor (OF, AAA)

Underlying Logic

The Padres are 15 games under .500 in the middle stages of a rebuilding phase, and while Headley is their best player, he’s not a franchise cornerstone or true building block. The earliest one can reasonably see San Diego competing is in 2014, which is the last deal of Headley’s contract. If they can get a big return for him now in a seller’s market, they’d be wise to so.

The Athletics find themselves in a position no one predicted when the season began – they currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Tigers for the AL’s second Wild Card spot. Oakland was also viewed as a rebuilding club, but thanks to good pitching and some unforeseen sources of power, they’re in a position to buy headed into July 31.

2012 Theoretical Trade Series: Red Sox, Nationals Exchange Ellsbury, Zimmermann

As a Twitter and MLBTradeRumors junky, the week-or-so leading up to July 31st is among my favorite times of the year. Baseball fans and bloggers scour the internet in search of the latest rumor, and spend hours postulating on the feasibility of trades which will likely never come to fruition.

What's the analytical benefit to such exercices? Well, admittedly not much. Does that mean it can't still be fun? Not at all.

With that idea in mind, I bring you the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series, in which I'll publish a few articles over the coming days detailing a few blockbuster trades I think should (but know probably won't) happen. Some will be based on rumors I read. Others, such as the one below, will be based purely on my own speculation. 

Feel free to comment to agree, disagree, compliment, insult, etc. The debate is often as fun as the speculation itself. 

Without further ado, I bring you the first article in this series, in which I trade Jacoby Ellsbury and spare parts for Jordan Zimmermann and a few arms. Enjoy!

Adding Ellsbury to the Nationals would make Washington NL World Series favorites. Photo by keithallison.

BOSTON RED SOX trade Jacoby Ellsbury (CF), Vincente Padilla (RP), Kelly Shoppach (C), Pedro Cirriaco (INF) to the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for Jordan Zimmermann (SP), Robbie Ray (LHP, A+), Ryan Perry (RHP, AAA)

Underlying Logic

The Red Sox are a sub-.500 baseball team and play their next eight games against the Rangers, Yankees and Tigers. They could very well be four or five games under the even point and even farther behind in the Wild Card hunt by this time next week.

The Nationals, meanwhile, hold a 4.5 game lead over the Braves, and are proving to be a competitive team a season before most took them too seriously. Their pitching is their strength, and they’ve been searching for true center fielder for a while now.

2012 Farm System Rankings

As seen on NESN.com, here are my 2012 Farm System Rankings. I'll be coming out with a Top 100 list for NESN soon, so stay tuned.


If you'd like to see the series as it ran on NESN, here are the links.


Systems 30-21  I  20-11  I  10-1


As always, feedback is appreciated.


Although baseball fans typically spend the offseason analyzing their favorite team's major-league rosters, assessing a team's farm system can offer a better perspective of how well set-up that organization is to succeed not just in 2012, but for the foreseeable future as well.

With several major offseason deals in the books, and with the 2011 draft class now firmly entrenched in each team's system, now is as good a time as any to review how all 30 farm systems stack up heading into the 2012 season.

There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Minor League Ball's John Sickles and more, plus analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here is a series aiming to rank, in reverse order, all 30 farm systems.

It's not a perfect science, but in general, organizations with high-upside prospects rank higher than those without, and prospects who are closer to the majors are worth more than those who are further away. That being said, an organization's depth –- including in the low minors -– does factor in to where they rank.

To begin, the bottom 10 systems in baseball are listed below. For the most part, these systems either lack prominent prospects all together, or contain one or two high-end prospects with little talent to follow.

As always, players must meet MLB rookie eligibility requirements (under 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level) to qualify as part of an organization's farm system.

1) San Diego Padres

Top Prospect: Rymer Liriano, outfielder

The Padres boast the best combination of upside and probability of any farm system in baseball, and have talent through all levels of their minor leagues. Robbie Erlin, Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland should all be permanent members of the big league rotation by mid-2013, and Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Liriano, Corey Spangenberg and Jedd Gyorko give them a solid crop of offensive prospects as well. Trading Mat Latos to the Reds will hurt them in 2012, but it put them in a much better position going forward.

2) Toronto Blue Jays

Top Prospect: Travis d’Arnaud, catcher

GM Alex Anthopoulos has done a tremendous job building this farm system through trades, drafting and the international market, and as a result the Jays now have the top system in the American League. Jake Marisnik and Anthony Gose form one of the most dynamic outfield prospect pairings in baseball, and d’Arnaud is an elite catching prospect. With Drew Hutchison, Justin Nicolino, Noah Snydergaard, Daniel Norris, Deck McGuire and Aaron Sanchez, the Jays have a bevy of No. 2/3 starter types throughout the system as well. It’s a very impressive group, especially given the trade of Nestor Molina and recent graduations of Henderson Alvarez and Brett Lawrie.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

Top Prospect: Trevor Bauer, starting pitcher

Even after trading Jarrod Parker for Trevor Cahill, the D-Backs boast one of the most impressive collections of pitchers in the minors. Bauer and Tyler Skaggs should be MLB-ready this season, and Archie Bradley, Pat Corbin and David Holmberg aren’t too far behind. Matt Davidson and Bobby Borchering could boast 30-homer power, and Anthony Meo and Andrew Chafin could be phenomenal relievers. Add in up-the-middle prospects Chris Owings and A.J. Pollock, and Arizona has set itself up for success for years to come.

4) Tampa Bay Rays

Top Prospect: Matt Moore, starting pitcher

It doesn’t matter how many prospects the Rays graduate to the majors each year – they just keep replenishing an incredibly deep system. Flame-throwing lefty Moore is one of the three or four best prospects in baseball, and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitcher Chris Archer will make plenty of Top 50 lists as well. A haul of Taylor Guerreri, Mikie Mathook and Grayson Garvin were parts of a good 2011 draft, and Brandon Guyer and Alex Torres, Alex Colome and Tim Beckham could play roles on the 2012 MLB club.

5) Texas Rangers

Top Prospect: Jurickson Profar, shortstop

The Rangers have a nice mix of talent in the low-to-mid minors. Profar is arguably the best shortstop prospect in the game, and has five-tool talent. Martin Perez’s prospect star has faded in recent months, but he’s still just 20 and reached Triple-A last season. He could join righty Neil Ramirez and lefty Robbie Ross in the Rangers’ rotation in short order, with Cody Buckel further away (and Yu Darvish a possibility too). Outfielder Leonys Martin will be an excellent defender with some pop in center, and Mike Olt is a promising corner infield bat in the low minors. Infielders Rougned Odor and Christian Villanueva are exciting too. 

2012 Top 20 Red Sox Prospects

Below is my 2012 Top 20 Red Sox list, which appeared on NESN.com. As always, comments are appreciated!

Since the dawn of the Theo Epstein era in 2002, the Red Sox have enjoyed nearly a decade of success in the drafting and development of minor league players. Perennially considered one of the better farm systems in baseball, the Red Sox system currently contains mostly high-impact prospects in the lower levels of the minors, but there are still plenty of players ready to contribute to the 2012 squad as well.

There's a certain amount of subjectivity that comes with any prospect ranking, as balancing proximity to the majors, upside and probability is a difficult task. But based on scouting reports from Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Fangraphs' Mike Newman and Marc Hulet and more, plus analysis of both traditional and advanced statistics, here are the Red Sox' top prospects headed into the 2012 season.

Players must meet MLB rookie eligibility requirements (under 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level) to qualify for this list. Teams listed below represent the highest level each player reached in 2011.

1. Will Middlebrooks, third base, Pawtucket

One of the most athletic third base prospects in the minors, Middlebrooks enjoyed a breakout season in 2011. The 23-year-old posted a .302 average and .345 on-base percentage with 18 homers and 25 doubles in 397 plate appearances in Double-A.

Widely regarded as an above-average defender, Middlebrooks' best tools are his arm and his plus power. One area of concern for Middlebrooks is his plate discipline, as he struck out in more than 23 percent of his at-bats last season while walking less than 6 percent of the time. Middlebrooks may never develop into the type of high-OBP player Sox fans have become accustomed to, but has a ceiling as an above-average everyday third baseman in the mold of a young Mike Lowell -- albeit with inferior contact rates. 

2. Anthony Ranaudo, starting pitcher, Salem

Ranaudo had a solid if unspectacular year in High-A, tossing 81 innings and posting a 4.33 ERA in 16 starts. Ranaudo's 3.95 fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggests he was better than his ERA demonstrates, but it would have been nice to see him pitch with more efficiency. The next major steps in Ranaudo's development will be further refining his changeup and building up his durability -– surpassing 140 innings pitched in 2012 would be a great sign.

Ranaudo projects more as a No. 2 starter than an ace in the majors, but he still comes with significant upside and could compete for a spot in the Sox rotation in spring training 2013. 

3. Xander Bogaerts, shortstop, Greenville

This is an aggressive ranking for Bogaerts, but if you believe that the best way to win at the MLB level is through acquiring stars, there's no more exciting prospect in the Red Sox system. Bogaerts' numbers don't look entirely impressive without context, as he put up a .260-16-45 line with a .324 OBP in Greenville. But considering Bogaerts more than held his own as an 18-year-old in Single-A in his second professional season, those numbers are rather impressive.

Bogaerts may eventually outgrow shortstop and slide to third base, but his bat would profile there as well. He's at least three more seasons away from seeing the majors, but his upside is as an all-star who contributes both in the middle of the field and in the heart of a batting order.

4. Jose Iglesias, shortstop, Pawtucket

Just about every Red Sox fans knows the book on Iglesias -– he's ready to be one of the two or three best defensive shortstops in baseball right now, but he's proven to be a liability at the plate to this point in his young career.

Iglesias possesses the bat speed and hand-eye coordination necessary to hit for a solid average, but he struggles with pitch recognition and has very little power. After hitting just .235 with a .285 OBP in Triple-A last year, Iglesias will need to prove himself for a few months before seeing major league time. He's still the Sox’ shortstop of the near future, but 2011 represented a step backward in his development.

5. Ryan Lavarnway, catcher/designated hitter, Boston

Lavarnway has the exact opposite problem as Iglesias: He's ready to contribute in the majors with his bat right now, but is held back by defensive limitations. Lavarnway has well above-average power -- especially when he pulls the ball -- and mashed 34 homeruns and 25 doubles between three levels last season. Behind the plate, Lavarnway has no problems calling games, but is below average against the run game and needs work on blocking pitches as well. Ideally, Lavarnway will progress into a Mike Napoli-type player who can catch twice a week while primarily DH-ing. If the Red Sox don’t retain Jason Varitek, Lavarnway could begin the season in the majors.

Top 10 Prospects Moved at 2011 Deadline

Below is my annual Top 10 Prospects Moved at the Trade Deadline for NESN. Feel free to comment!

The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and while major league players on the move have stolen most of the headlines, a wealth of minor league talent has changed hands as well. Unlike the 2010 deadline that saw few impact prospects switch organizations, 2011 saw future aces, power hitters and MLB-ready arms exchange uniforms with regularity.

The 10 best prospects who switched teams at or during the days leading up to the deadline are ranked below. Most of these players won't see the majors until next season at the earliest, but they'll aim to ensure that at future trade deadlines, their organizations are looking to add talent for deep playoff runs.

10. Charlie Furbush, pitcher, Seattle Mariners
Furbush was a part of the deal that saw Doug Fister and David Pauley shipped to Detroit, and the 25-year-old left-hander offers the Mariners some versatility going forward. Should the M's choose to put Furbush in the rotation, he has the ceiling of a No. 4 starter, and his tendency to give up the long ball would be somewhat mitigated by spacious Safeco Field. Furbush's lack of a true out-pitch means his future may lie in the bullpen, though, where he would likely become a solid set-up man or high-leverage reliever. Either Drew Smyly orChance Ruffin is rumored to be the PTBNL in the Fister deal, and either would bump Furbush off this list. A case can also be made to place Joe Wieland, dealt from Texas to San Diego, here on the list instead of Furbush.

9. Francisco Martinez, third baseman, Seattle Mariners
Until the final player is named, Martinez is the best prospect the Mariners received in the Fister trade. While he may not be an industry-consensus Top 100 prospect, he's likely not all that far off either. Martinez won't turn 21 until September, yet he is holding his own at Double-A with a .282 average, 46 RBIs and seven home runs and seven steals. His .319 on-base percentage leaves much to be desired, but he looks like a future everyday player, and has the tools to be an outstanding defensive third baseman. It's hard to find many impact positional prospects in the Mariners' system, and Martinez immediately becomes one of their best.

8. Zach Stewart, pitcher, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were largely slammed for dealing Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen to save payroll while in the midst of a pennant race, but they did little to harm their starting pitching depth by acquiring Stewart in return. Dealt from the Reds to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen at the 2009 deadline, Stewart has been a consistent if not phenomenal performer at Double-A over the past two years, and started three games for the Jays earlier this season as well. Stewart could use a little more minor league seasoning, but is still just 24, and should compete for a spot in the White Sox rotation next year. He profiles as a No. 3 starter if he continues to improve his command.

7. Trayvon Robinson, outfielder, Seattle Mariners
Perhaps no move during this year's trading deadline was as odd as the Dodgers' decision to give up Robinson, who is exactly the type of young, cost-controlled talent they should be looking to acquire. Robinson has seen his value increase this year with a phenomenal Triple-A campaign, as the switch-hitter has hit .297-26-71 with eight steals and a .375 OBP through 416 plate appearances. Scouts believe the uptick in power may be a fluke, but Robinson should reach double-digit homers and steals in the majors. He can play an above-average left field or be an adequate defender in center. The Mariners will likely keep Robinson in Triple-A until the minor league season ends, but expect him to be up with the big league club in September, and to complete for a starting job next spring.

6. Alex White, starting pitcher, Colorado Rockies
White is the most major league-ready piece the Rockies received from the Indians in the Ubaldo Jimenezdeal, but is currently on the disabled list with a finger injury -– a worse fate for White than for most pitchers, since his best pitch is a splitter. White has flown through the minors since being drafted 15th overall in 2009 and has less than 200 innings pitched in his professional career. If he can continue to induce ground balls at an above-average rate and improve on his slider, he has the chance to be a No. 3 starter. If not, he still profiles as a late-inning reliever or possible closer.