2012 Theoretical Trade Series: Oakland Nabs Headley, Padres Keep Rebuilding

Earlier this week, we kicked off the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series with a look at what a potential swap of Jacoby Ellsbury and Jordan Zimmermann would mean for the Red Sox and Nationals.

My second piece in this series was going to cover a swap of Mike Olt and Zack Greinke, but then the Angels stepped in and ruined my plans, landing the Brewers’ ace for a package built around Jean Segura instead.

Instead, PTP examines one of the most popular offensive players on the trading block – Chase Headley – and how he’d fit with the AL’s most surprising playoff contender, the Oakland Athletics.

Few people thought the A’s would be buyers when trade season rolled around, but in Headley they can add a player who helps both now and for the next several seasons.

Chase Headley would make the A's better both now and for the next several seasons. Photo by SD Dirk.

SAN DIEGO PADRES trade Chase Headley (3B) to OAKLAND ATHLETICS for Brad Peacock (SP, AAA), Grant Green (UT, AAA), Fautino De Los Santos (RP, AAA) and Michael Taylor (OF, AAA)

Underlying Logic

The Padres are 15 games under .500 in the middle stages of a rebuilding phase, and while Headley is their best player, he’s not a franchise cornerstone or true building block. The earliest one can reasonably see San Diego competing is in 2014, which is the last deal of Headley’s contract. If they can get a big return for him now in a seller’s market, they’d be wise to so.

The Athletics find themselves in a position no one predicted when the season began – they currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Tigers for the AL’s second Wild Card spot. Oakland was also viewed as a rebuilding club, but thanks to good pitching and some unforeseen sources of power, they’re in a position to buy headed into July 31.

2012 Theoretical Trade Series: Red Sox, Nationals Exchange Ellsbury, Zimmermann

As a Twitter and MLBTradeRumors junky, the week-or-so leading up to July 31st is among my favorite times of the year. Baseball fans and bloggers scour the internet in search of the latest rumor, and spend hours postulating on the feasibility of trades which will likely never come to fruition.

What's the analytical benefit to such exercices? Well, admittedly not much. Does that mean it can't still be fun? Not at all.

With that idea in mind, I bring you the 2012 Theoretical Trade Series, in which I'll publish a few articles over the coming days detailing a few blockbuster trades I think should (but know probably won't) happen. Some will be based on rumors I read. Others, such as the one below, will be based purely on my own speculation. 

Feel free to comment to agree, disagree, compliment, insult, etc. The debate is often as fun as the speculation itself. 

Without further ado, I bring you the first article in this series, in which I trade Jacoby Ellsbury and spare parts for Jordan Zimmermann and a few arms. Enjoy!

Adding Ellsbury to the Nationals would make Washington NL World Series favorites. Photo by keithallison.

BOSTON RED SOX trade Jacoby Ellsbury (CF), Vincente Padilla (RP), Kelly Shoppach (C), Pedro Cirriaco (INF) to the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for Jordan Zimmermann (SP), Robbie Ray (LHP, A+), Ryan Perry (RHP, AAA)

Underlying Logic

The Red Sox are a sub-.500 baseball team and play their next eight games against the Rangers, Yankees and Tigers. They could very well be four or five games under the even point and even farther behind in the Wild Card hunt by this time next week.

The Nationals, meanwhile, hold a 4.5 game lead over the Braves, and are proving to be a competitive team a season before most took them too seriously. Their pitching is their strength, and they’ve been searching for true center fielder for a while now.